ChipGardnerNH
Rookie
Posts: 67
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« on: May 27, 2012, 02:31:57 PM » |
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This may or may not have been done before, but I came up with a new way to really study the movement of certain states over time. I decided to look at the past 6 Presidential elections spanning from 1988-2008. I divided the popular vote into left-leaning candidates and right-leaning candidates. I tried to allocate third party candidates into left-leaning and right-leaning. For the small percentage of write-in votes or none of the above (in NV), I discounted those and repercentaged the left-leaning vs. right-leaning vote. For example, in 2008, I counted the left-leaning vote as a combination of votes for Obama, Nader, McKinney, and a couple others. The right-leaning vote would be a combination of McCain, Barr, Baldwin, and a couple others. I did this for every election nationally and in each state going back to 1988. I will post my results for each state going back to 1988 along with how each state differed from the national average and my analysis of that.
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ChipGardnerNH
Rookie
Posts: 67
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« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2012, 02:34:15 PM » |
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If you have questions about which candidates were allocated as left or right leaning, please email me at ChipGardnerNH@gmail.com. I made one decision which some of you may find controversial. I decided to count 1992 and 1996 Perot votes as right-leaning. I am not suggesting that he cost Bush or Dole the election or even that he necessarily drew more from them than from Clinton, but I just see Ross Perot as being more to the right than to the left. I guess it would be possible to redo this study without allocating Perot to either side and repercentaging. Perhaps that would yield a different result. I also decided to count John Hagelin as left-leaning because he's into Transcendental meditation. However, he got such a small percentage of the vote that it doesn't matter that much.
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