so when is this s--- gonna blow up?

[© tweed]

2 weeks, 3 months, a year?

[CLARENCE 2015!]

What do you mean- are you talking about when will we dip again?

[opebo]

Presumably Tweed is observant of poor government policy (austerity), and is assuming that good policy (massive monetary and fiscal easing, and dare we say it even redistribution) shall not be forthcoming, and that thus, capitalism will inevitably fail as it always does.

[Sbane]

What do you mean- are you talking about when will we dip again?

He's talking about Europe. It will likely take us into recession as well if they go into a deep one. They will have it worse though.

[Simfan34]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fm6PAYYsH9M

[Peeperkorn]

capitalism will inevitably fail as it always does.

It's normative economics which fails, not positive economy.

Anyway, Europe is certainly doomed as I've been saying for two years. I won't be surprised if Spain reach a 30% unemployment record next year.

[Gustaf]

The timing can by definition not be predicted. /boring answer

[Torie]

The timing can by definition not be predicted. /boring answer

Germany is calling the shots, and Hollande will be told no, and have to suck it up. I guess the issue is whether the German policy is the best policy or not. It does seem however that just incurring more debt on top of the existing debt will have the effect over time of just taking Germany down with the others, so if austerity is not enough, maybe it is time for some basic structural reforms, e.g., employment practices, and so forth. Or maybe the aging population makes all of this inevitable, as the relatively few working simply cannot support anymore the edifice of largess. What do you think Gustaf?

[opebo]

Germany is calling the shots, and Hollande will be told no, and have to suck it up. I guess the issue is whether the German policy is the best policy or not. It does seem however that just incurring more debt on top of the existing debt will have the effect over time of just taking Germany down with the others, so if austerity is not enough, maybe it is time for some basic structural reforms, e.g., employment practices, and so forth. Or maybe the aging population makes all of this inevitable, as the relatively few working simply cannot support anymore the edifice of largess.

Germany's policy is precisely that which will cause a blow-up, just as it has caused the initial difficulty.  As you rightly point out, all have followed Germany down the primrose neo-liberal path for decades now, which as we have seen from Reagan and Thatcherite Anglosphere, leads to nothing but doom for all but the tiniest of elites.

So as I have said for months no - Germany is the villain here, and it is the German people who are to blame.  They can't just blame their leaders, or say 'I was just following orders'.

[Peeperkorn]

So as I have said for months no - Germany is the villain here, and it is the German people who are to blame.  They can't just blame their leaders, or say 'I was just following orders'.

lol

[ag]

I would put it a bit more succinctly: people are to blame.

It would be so much better, if people didn't exist, wouldn't it? No crises, no nothing ))

[© tweed]

I would put it a bit more succinctly: people are to blame.

It would be so much better, if people didn't exist, wouldn't it? No crises, no nothing ))

shades of the great Stalin quote.

[ag]

shades of the great Stalin quote.

Well, comrade Stalin trained as a priest. He would have known of that divine sentiment )

[fezzyfestoon]

I'm expecting more of a continued gradual crumble than a blowup. Governments will falter, corporations will fill in the power vacuum, we'll still convince ourselves that we have any control over what happens in the world, and the economy will stagnate indefinitely. Although I don't doubt for a second that there will be more bubbles and they will get worse and worse.

[Gustaf]

The timing can by definition not be predicted. /boring answer

Germany is calling the shots, and Hollande will be told no, and have to suck it up. I guess the issue is whether the German policy is the best policy or not. It does seem however that just incurring more debt on top of the existing debt will have the effect over time of just taking Germany down with the others, so if austerity is not enough, maybe it is time for some basic structural reforms, e.g., employment practices, and so forth. Or maybe the aging population makes all of this inevitable, as the relatively few working simply cannot support anymore the edifice of largess. What do you think Gustaf?

Well, there is a difference between what ought to have been done in the past and what should be done now.

If an obese person is lying on the ground, dying of a heart attack you might point out that he should have done more running and less lying down in the past. But trying to force him into a run now will not just not help, it will actually kill him faster.

The problem is one of commitment. If Germany now bails everyone out (assuming they even can) what happens in the future? The Germans are pushing for stricter rules but who is to believe those rules?

There has to be structural reform, there has to be pension reform and there has to be reform to encourage people to work longer.

But I suspect Europe is a bit done for. At least large parts of it.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

What Gustaf and Fezzy said, basically.

[Gustaf]

What Gustaf and Fezzy said, basically.

You agreed with me on something?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

What Gustaf and Fezzy said, basically.

You agreed with me on something?

I think we pretty much agree on everything except style, which unfortunately is the most important thing.

[Frodo]

It seems Angela may be reconsidering her strident opposition on euro-debt sharing:

Merkel May Be Persuaded On Euro Debt-Sharing Compromise

By Brian Parkin and Jeffrey Donovan - May 25, 2012 7:44 AM ET

Chancellor Angela Merkel left the door open to a compromise on debt sharing in the euro area as Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said he can help bring Germany around to acting in Europe’s “common good.”

Merkel’s veto on allowing Germany to underwrite joint debt issuance in the 17-nation euro region is under fire from her international partners as well as the domestic opposition. While she refused to back joint euro-area bonds at a Brussels summit on May 23, Germany’s opposition parties wrung a concession from the chancellor on her return to Berlin yesterday to reconsider a separate proposal on common liability for sovereign debt.

The blueprint, published in November by Merkel’s council of economic advisers, involves a so-called European redemption fund that would help governments scale back outstanding debt to below 60 percent of economic output in return for constitutional commitments on economic reform. The government and opposition agreed to study the fund and discuss it further on June 13.

“The concept amounts to a third way to tackle the euro area’s debt mountain,” Peter Bofinger, a professor of economics at the University of Wuerzburg and one of the proposed fund’s architects, said today by phone. “Euro bonds have a dreadful press and are evidently unacceptable to Germany. What’s overlooked by the fund’s critics is that it is temporary and has built-in inducements on states to run sound budgets. I don’t know right now whether the concept will be adopted, but it deserves earnest consideration.”