No JFK

[Polkergeist]

I have a little what-if theory that I would like to run by you all. It's a little sequence of events that whilist not a timeline does read chronologically

1960:

Pre Dem Convention: JFK's Addison's disease is leaked to the press. JFK's denials are swamped by the media storm abou the issue. This is enough to destablise the Kennedy Campaign.

Dem Convention: While JFK leads the first round ballot he does not get a majority due to concerns about his health. In the subsequent ballots. Johnson picks up votes to overtake Kennedy and take the nomination. In a slap in the face to the progressvie wing of the party lead by Hubert Humphrey he picks Stuart Symington of Kansas as his VP.

Election: Nixon upon the nomination of LBJ, a southerner decides that it is no use to campaign with Southern votes in mind. Hence Nixon pursues a northern strategy to pick up blacks and disaffected Dems from the Johnson Campaign. Nixon calls Corretta King (LBJ does not out of fear over his Texas senate seat) about her husband's (Martin Luther King) arrest in Alabama and he campaigns on the Eisenhower position on Civil Rights (Soft support).

LBJ also scorns the idea of the TV debate and they are not held.

Nixon wins most of the North except RI, Mid-west  and West. While LBJ wins the South easily.

Nixon 405
Johnson 132

Nixon's victory is credited by commentators to his experience as VP and his moderate pro-civil rights position which picked up 70 % of the African American vote and a chunck of disaffected progressives.

More to come.

[Polkergeist]

Nixon term I:

Nixon's first term was marked with clashes with Soviet Leader Khruschev and civil rights issues at home.

Bay of Pigs: Nixon fully backed the covert Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba in early 1961. After 2 months of hand to hand combat, Castro was overthrown and a new CIA backed regime was installed. This angered the Soviets who furiously denounced the invasion. This was in part becuse they really couldn't do anything about military action inside the Western Hemisphere.

Berlin: East Berlin was sealed off and a wall built in mid-1961. Many Commentators stated that this was tit-for-tat in repsonse to the invasion of Cuba.

Civil Rights: Nixon continued his postion of soft support in an attempt to keep the African American and Progressvie voters in his coalition. Nixon also signed a civil rights bill in 1963 that attempted to guarantee voting rights and equal treatment for African Americans. During Nixon's First term he struck up a friendship with Martin Luther King adn they became strong allies in moderate civil rights movement.

Feud with Barry Goldwater: President Nixon's harshest critic within his own party was Senator Goldwater of Arizona. Goldwater's ultra conservative views of reducing the size of government and states rights were at odds with Nixon's civil rights agenda and Nixon's refusal to activly reduce the size of the federal government. As aresult Goldwater gave serval speeches denoucning Nixon's policies raising the ire of Nixon. The feud came to a head at the 1964 GOP convention. While Goldwater did not actively challenge Nixon's nomination he did push for hard right wing ecomomic and states rights planks to be inserted into the GOP Platform. Nixon successfully stared down the Goldwater challenge winning the day on the platform. In part this was due to a speech by Martin Luther King on behalf of Nixon praising the current administration's position of Civil Rights as a Christian positon. This sucked out the Religious momentum behind Goldwater and won the day for Nixon.

1964:

Dem Nomination:

Hubert Humphrey who had co-sponsored the Civil Rights Bill through Congress ran for the Dem nominaton as the Progressive Wing Candidate. At the end of 1963 he seemed the front runner. However the segregationist governor of Alabama George Wallace threw his hat into the ring after his many clashes with the Nixon Administration. Several Wallace victories in Dem Northern primaries ( Michigan, Wisconsin, Maryland and Indiana) shocked the pundits and brought to attention a growing socially conservative working class. With his northern primary victories and his Southern Base of support, Wallace had enough delegates to have a shot at the nomination. A stirring speech at the Convention by liflelong Democrat and Actors guild president Ronald Reagan on behalf of Wallace pushed him over the line by 5 votes in a bitter contest with Humphrey.

Wallace chose Harry Byrd as his running mate.

Election:

Humphrey rejected calls by progressive supporters to run as an independent. However local progressvies in Minnesota closely linked to HHH did call for a vote for Nixon.

The campaign was spirited with Wallace continuing to make a name for himslef with his charismatic speeches. However Nixon's steady adminsitration and leadership in cold war was the defining factor. Howeve Wallace did make inroads into the north with Wins in PA and MI.

Nixon 303
Wallace 235

More to come

[Polkergeist]

Nixon Term II:

President Nixon’s second term was dominated once again by the Cold War and Civil Rights. However, as the decade wore on events started to favour the Democrats conservative working class push.

Watts riots: The Watts riots of 1965 sparked a wave of African-American discontent in the cities. The resulting white backlash pushed many conservative Republicans towards the Wallacite Democratic position. In California Governor Pat Brown’s response was criticised harshly by Ronald Reagan who had now become a standard bearer for the new Wallacite Democrats in California. Reagan subsequently challenged Brown for the Democratic Gubernatorial nomination the next year which he duly won. In one of the more memorable political manurers in American history Pat Brown vowed to stay in race and captured the Republican Gubernatorial nomination. On election day, Reagan captured the Governorship.

’66 Mid-terms: The resulting urban disturbances and early dissent against Vietnam strengthened the Democratic cause. In the congressional and state elections of that year, Wallacite Democrats made major gains. Wallacite Governors were elected in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and California. George Wallace himself was elected Senator for Alabama. In Washington with Strom Thurmond as Majority Leader, Wallacite Democrats made up a third of all Senators, A similar percentage of House members were also Wallacites.

Vietnam: The civil war in Vietnam escalated after 1963. President Nixon accordingly sent more American advisors and troops. However as his second term went on it became apparent to Nixon that this would be a long war that could be costly for the US. By 1966 protests were already occurring about the war and could be troublesome for the country. Nixon’s solution to the problem lay in a geo-political trick that he had been mulling for some time.

China: Sino-Soviet Relations had deteriorated badly in the early 1960’s. In 1965 Nixon sent out feelers to the Chinese to see if they would talk. However with Vietnam heating up the Chinese were not interested. However 1967 saw the war bog down. Furthermore through diplomatic channels Peking was convinced that North Vietnam would lean towards the USSR than China. As a result talks were scheduled between Mao and Nixon in October 1967. In that meeting both sides came to an understanding that China would block goods and military supplies at the Chinese-North Vietnamese border. In return Nixon would leave North Vietnam alone after the peace that would soon be made after and that he would recognise Red China. The shock meeting angered Moscow but was effective in forcing a ceasefire in Vietnam in February 1968.

HHH walks: In September 1967 after nine months of sparring with Wallacite Democrats form the class of ’66, Hubert Humphrey announces he is quitting the party and will sit as an Independent. The flight of progressives from the Democratic Party had begun with Wallace nomination in ’64. Most had become independent; a few had switched to the Republicans.

1968:
GOP Nomination: It was fought out between Governor Nelson Rockefeller of NY and Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona. President Nixon had been riding high since the Vietnam ceasefire and used his political capital to thwart his old enemy Goldwater. Riding on the coattails of the ‘Peace President’ Rockefeller coasted to the nomination after sweeping all non-southern primaries. Rockefeller chose Martin Luther King as his running mate.

Dem Nomination: Wallace only met with Token opposition on his way to the nomination. Wallace chose California Governor Ronald Reagan as his running mate.

Election: While Rockefeller started out at a slight favourite on Labor Day his lead quickly evaporated in the heat of the campaign. The candidates did agree to one TV debate that was watched by 100 million people, but the debate proved no clear winner. The deciding factors were race and social issues plus the American non-intervention in the Prague Spring which Rockefeller supported and Wallace opposed.

Wallace won the election by 6 percentage points in the popular vote

Wallace 340
Rockefeller 198

On election night when Ohio voted decisively Democratic it marked a shift in American politics. Social conservatism had now become the bastion of the Democratic Party North and South, while Social Liberalism was found in the Republican Party.  However the Democrats were still the party of interventionism in the Economy as evidenced by Senator Wallace’s pledge not to cut tariffs.

[Platypus]

so, american politics is shaped as quadrant 1 vs. 4 rather then the current 2 vs. 3...very good work, mate

[??????????]

I like that win in 68!!

[minionofmidas]

Interesting...

[ilikeverin]

Oh no, another I-Don't-Fit-In-A-Party Timeline!

Unless HHH found a new party

[Joe Republic]

Really interesting TL.

Though I'm assuming that Nixon kept Henry Lodge on the ticket in 1960?  If so, wouldn't he have played a part in all this somewhere?

Perhaps Humphrey (and perhaps McCarthy) leaving the Democrats would give renewed vigor (and decisiveness) to the old Bull Moose Party?

[Rob]

Very good, interesting timeline. Think up some more:)

[Polkergeist]

Thanks for all you kind words. I have the maps I just need to post them. And there is more to come.

[Polkergeist]

Really interesting TL.

Though I'm assuming that Nixon kept Henry Lodge on the ticket in 1960?  If so, wouldn't he have played a part in all this somewhere?

Perhaps Humphrey (and perhaps McCarthy) leaving the Democrats would give renewed vigor (and decisiveness) to the old Bull Moose Party?

Lodge was Nixon's VP for 8 years in this TL

As for Humphrey keep an eye out for him.

[King]

Very nice, it would have really changed the future of the GOP (70% of African American vote in '60)

[Polkergeist]

Here are the maps

1960

[Polkergeist]

1964



1968

[Michael Z]

Interesting stuff, keep it up.

[Polkergeist]

Wallace term I

The Wallace presidency began with a bang. In his inaugural address President Wallace vowed to introduce a bill to repeal the Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act and to vacate those areas to the states. President Wallace also mentioned that he would step up the Cold War to neutralise the Soviet menace.

Sino-Soviet War

Before Wallace could his hands on the Soviets, they were drawn into a war with the Chinese. With relations posionous after the Chinese cut off Soviet supplies to North Vietnam, the sporadic border clashes of the past 3 years spilled over into a fully fledged conflict in July of 1969. The initial results of the ground war saw Soviet gains in Manchuria while Chinese troops made successful gains into Siberia. By winter 1969-70 the position reached stalemate. How ever in the more temperate south, North Vietnam invaded China in an attempt to draw Chinese troops to a Southern front. No nuclear weapons were used in an apparent deal. The Wallace administration took no sides in the war with President Wallace happy to see both nations slug it out.

Civil Rights Roll back

President Wallace's attempts to repel the Civil Rights Act fell into trouble in 1970. After much debate the House narrowly passed the bill. But the Senate put up a firm rejection of the package. In attempt to imporve passage of the repeal, President Wallace proposed a Federal Scheme to encourage African Americans to leave the South for states in the North and West. The mass movement would be undertaken by bus and hence the plan beacme known as bussing. Howeve the move backfired as it was bitterly opposed by Republicans many of whom derided it as social engineering.

The opposition of Progressives and Republicans to the repeal of the Civil Rights Act was the catalyst for the cementing of the movement of progressives into the GOP. This was evidenced by Ind. Sen. Hubert Humphrey joining the Republicans.

The resulting political failure and the controversy that the push for the repeal of the civil rights legislation created caused a back lash against the Democrats in the 1970 Mid term election which slashed the Dem majority of 45 to 3 in the House and saw the Senate slip further in to Republican hands.

Sino-Soviet War cont.

As the war restarted in the north after the Spring thaw, the Soviets superior equipment started to tell with Chinese troops push back behind their borders. When Harbin fell to the Soviets in August 1971 this precipitated a coup against Chairman Mao and ascendency of Lin Piao to the leadership who called for a ceasefire and negotiations

Abortion

In September 1971 the Supreme Court handed down a decision Thea v Spade that held state laws criminalising abortion unconstitutional. President Wallace reacted to the ruling by announcing he would ask congress to pass a bill criminalising abortion. It failed in House by 3 votes. President Wallace announced that he would reintroduce the bill if re-elected.

Election

For the GOP the primary battle was between MI Rep. Gerald Ford who represented the fiscally conservative wing of the party and Hubert Humphrey who was drafted as the progressive standard bearer after Martin Luther King declined not to run.

Ford won the GOP Primary in part beacue of Humphrey's lack of an established base in the party. However at the convention in an attempt to hold on to the newly found Socially progressive base, the abortion plank that was adopted allowed for Abortion in limited circumstances and proposed a federal law mandating this for the whole country.

In the general election President Wallace exploited the Republican position branding it as extreme social libertarianism.

At the Democratic Convention President Wallace announced that he recognised the right of African Americans to vote. However this was lost in a sea of heavy social conservatism spurred on by the abortion issue that came to domiante the campaign.

While President Wallace was narrowly returned. The abortion issue did lose some gound in the west and North-east for the Dems. This was balanced somewhat by small gains in the midwest.

Wallace 299
Ford  239

[??????????]

In reality Wallace would not have rolled back the Civil Rights & Voting Rights acts. I believe he himself said if elected president he would not do that.

[Polkergeist]

In reality Wallace would not have rolled back the Civil Rights & Voting Rights acts. I believe he himself said if elected president he would not do that.

Do you have a source for that ?

In any case what do you think a Wallace Presidency 1968-1976 would be like States ? I'd put your ideas in the TL seeing as you know your Wallace

[??????????]

In reality Wallace would not have rolled back the Civil Rights & Voting Rights acts. I believe he himself said if elected president he would not do that.

Do you have a source for that ?

In any case what do you think a Wallace Presidency 1968-1976 would be like States ? I'd put your ideas in the TL seeing as you know your Wallace

I apologize I do not have any quick links to prove that. But I know I have read his opinions in his campaign literature. I think Al and I discussed this and he brought up that fact.