Iraq factor in Asian seats

[scorpiogurl]

Is it likely that the Liberal Democrats could win predominantly Asian populated seats due to their anti-war stance?

As a midlander, I am thinking particularly of seats like Sparkbrook, Small Heath and Perry Barr.

[Peter]

Islington South & Finsbury; Hornsey and Wood Green; Bethnal Green & Bow are all probable targets for the Lib Dems, though they'll be sharing Bethnal Green with the infamous Galloway.

Perry Barr is a possibility IMO; If they manage to organise the Tory voters into tactical voting and can carry enough ethnic minority vote, it might well happen. Sparkbrook and Small Heath is too much to swing on the other hand and would require a swing not seen in a general election, even in 97.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Possibly... I'm not sure about Perry Barr because the election of a Muslim Labour M.P last time round has inverted what's become "normal" Brum voting patterns.

[Silent Hunter]

What percentage of the Asian population is Muslim?

How are the Hindu and Sikh voters going?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What percentage of the Asian population is Muslim?

Varies from seat to seat a hellofalot

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Don't know about the Hindu vote, but Sikhs usually vote over 70% Labour, and I'd expect that to rise

[afleitch]

Sikhs and Hindus will probably rally behind what ever candidate the local Muslims are not bankrolling. It happened in Glasgow Govan- but it wasn't enough to defeat the eventual winner.

[Tory]

How are the Hindu and Sikh voters going?

It seems to be that in my experiance most Sikhs are Labour and most Hindus are Conservative

[Ben.]

How are the Hindu and Sikh voters going?

It seems to be that in my experience most Sikhs are Labour and most Hindus are Conservative

Not so.

Both communities are strongly Labour go to Belgrave or Latimer wards in Leicester, elections there are usually Labour vs. an Independent (who didn't get the Labour nomination) conservatives and even LibDems don't get a look in and I say that on the basis of the polling that's been done by Labour in Leicester before and after the by-election. Labour won one ward that it lost by a landslide in the local elections thanks to Sikhs and Hindus switching back to Labour. That said a small number of wealthy Hindus are conservative supporters but something like 70% of them vote Labour when/if they vote ditto Sikhs.

The Muslim community is fundamentally a split community, Bengali, Gujarati, Punjabi and Somali are the main ethnic groups and their leanings tend to differ from city to city… in Leicester for example the Bengali and Punjabi Muslims generally favour Labour, while the Somali community is very new and therefore not allied with any party yet and the Gujarati Muslims defected to the LibDems, sadly about ¾ of the Muslim population is Gujarati, that’s not taking the Somalis into account but many of whom are not yet registered.

The issue of “Asian seats” switching to the LibDems is deceptive, your looking at seat with large Muslim populations, but as I say it will differ from place to place but when Jack Straw and Michael Meacher look safe I doubt we’ll see anyone else losing their seat, though I’d expect some hefty majorities to be cut and for the LDs to replace the Tories in a string of Midland seats… but gains? I doubt it.               

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good post, Ben

[Ben.]

Good post, Ben

Thanks

[scorpiogurl]

How are the Hindu and Sikh voters going?

It seems to be that in my experience most Sikhs are Labour and most Hindus are Conservative

The Muslim community is fundamentally a split community, Bengali, Gujarati, Punjabi and Somali are the main ethnic groups and their leanings tend to differ from city to city…               

What about the Pakistani community? I am pretty sure there is a sizeable number of Pakistani muslims in Birmingham and perhaps Bradford!

[Tory]

How are the Hindu and Sikh voters going?

It seems to be that in my experience most Sikhs are Labour and most Hindus are Conservative

Not so.

Both communities are strongly Labour go to Belgrave or Latimer wards in Leicester, elections there are usually Labour vs. an Independent (who didn't get the Labour nomination) conservatives and even LibDems don't get a look in and I say that on the basis of the polling that's been done by Labour in Leicester before and after the by-election. Labour won one ward that it lost by a landslide in the local elections thanks to Sikhs and Hindus switching back to Labour. That said a small number of wealthy Hindus are conservative supporters but something like 70% of them vote Labour when/if they vote ditto Sikhs.

The Muslim community is fundamentally a split community, Bengali, Gujarati, Punjabi and Somali are the main ethnic groups and their leanings tend to differ from city to city… in Leicester for example the Bengali and Punjabi Muslims generally favour Labour, while the Somali community is very new and therefore not allied with any party yet and the Gujarati Muslims defected to the LibDems, sadly about ¾ of the Muslim population is Gujarati, that’s not taking the Somalis into account but many of whom are not yet registered.

The issue of “Asian seats” switching to the LibDems is deceptive, your looking at seat with large Muslim populations, but as I say it will differ from place to place but when Jack Straw and Michael Meacher look safe I doubt we’ll see anyone else losing their seat, though I’d expect some hefty majorities to be cut and for the LDs to replace the Tories in a string of Midland seats… but gains? I doubt it.               

As I said that is in my personal experiance. Interesting though.