What does a 5% uniform swing from Obama to Romney look like?

[5280]

Would that put Romney over 300 EV?

[Adam Griffin]

Romney - 285
Obama - 253

[5280]

I came up with this

[King]

A uniform swing from what?

[Adam Griffin]

I came up with this

Whoops. I messed up on NH (9.61 point margin in 2008), but looks like you messed up on PA. There was a 10.32 point margin in PA in 2008.

A uniform swing from what?

I'm assuming 2008 totals.

[5280]

A uniform swing from what?

People who voted Obama in 2008, didn't like what he's done thus far and vote for Romney as an alternative.  I'm taking 5% off Obama and moving them toward the Romney from 2008 % results. I use 5% from a recent PPP poll with Obama leading Romney in Nevada, and doing that nationwide.

[Alcon]

A uniform swing from what?

People who voted Obama in 2008, didn't like what he's done thus far and vote for Romney as an alternative.  I'm taking 5% off Obama and moving them toward the Romney from 2008 % results.

That's a 10% swing.  A swing, at least in the Atlasian sense, is based on the percentage margin.

[Adam Griffin]

A uniform swing from what?

People who voted Obama in 2008, didn't like what he's done thus far and vote for Romney as an alternative.  I'm taking 5% off Obama and moving them toward the Romney from 2008 % results.

That's a 10% swing.  A swing, at least in the Atlasian sense, is based on the percentage margin.

This was what I was wondering about. I always get the terms mixed up.

[Adam Griffin]

So just for fun (-2.5 from D, + 2.5 to R):

Obama - 285
Romney - 253

[King]

A uniform swing from what?

People who voted Obama in 2008, didn't like what he's done thus far and vote for Romney as an alternative.  I'm taking 5% off Obama and moving them toward the Romney from 2008 % results.

Oh.  That's easy (but Alcon is right, it's a 10% swing). Romney wins every state where McCain had at least 45%.  

Romney 50.60%
Obama 47.87%

Obama 272
Romney 266

Yeah...  Romney is going to have to do a little bit better than 10%.
 
Really, it just shows how strongly divided the states are.  Obama really blew out McCain in all the swing states to win the EC, but McCain did well enough in Republican strongholds to make the popular vote a lot closer.

[5280]

I could see Romney swing at least 15% of the vote from Obama to him, he'll have to do the math correctly.

[King]

I could see Romney swing at least 15% of the vote from Obama to him, he'll have to do the math correctly.

Do you really see Romney doing better than George W. Bush?  I don't think he has it in him.

[Adam Griffin]

A uniform swing from what?

People who voted Obama in 2008, didn't like what he's done thus far and vote for Romney as an alternative.  I'm taking 5% off Obama and moving them toward the Romney from 2008 % results.

Oh.  That's easy (but Alcon is right, it's a 10% swing). Romney wins every state where McCain had at least 45%.  

Romney 50.60%
Obama 47.87%

Obama 272
Romney 266

Yeah...  Romney is going to have to do a little bit better than 10%.
 
Really, it just shows how strongly divided the states are.  Obama really blew out McCain in all the swing states to win the EC, but McCain did well enough in Republican strongholds to make the popular vote a lot closer.

Wondering how you came to this result? Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire all had a margin less than 10 points in 2008.

[King]

A uniform swing from what?

People who voted Obama in 2008, didn't like what he's done thus far and vote for Romney as an alternative.  I'm taking 5% off Obama and moving them toward the Romney from 2008 % results.

Oh.  That's easy (but Alcon is right, it's a 10% swing). Romney wins every state where McCain had at least 45%.  

Romney 50.60%
Obama 47.87%

Obama 272
Romney 266

Yeah...  Romney is going to have to do a little bit better than 10%.
 
Really, it just shows how strongly divided the states are.  Obama really blew out McCain in all the swing states to win the EC, but McCain did well enough in Republican strongholds to make the popular vote a lot closer.

Wondering how you came to this result? Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire all had a margin less than 10 points in 2008.

Oh, I didn't really look at the margin.  I just added 5 to McCain.  I guess Romney would win the EC, but it'd be in the early morning hours.

[Adam Griffin]

I could see Romney swing at least 15% of the vote from Obama to him, he'll have to do the math correctly.

Did you mean 15% of Obama's total 2008 vote or a 15 point change (-7.5 from D, +7.5 to R)?

EDIT: Actually, they're pretty similar. 15% of Obama's vote would be 7.93 points.

[5280]

A uniform swing from what?

People who voted Obama in 2008, didn't like what he's done thus far and vote for Romney as an alternative.  I'm taking 5% off Obama and moving them toward the Romney from 2008 % results.

Oh.  That's easy (but Alcon is right, it's a 10% swing). Romney wins every state where McCain had at least 45%.  

Romney 50.60%
Obama 47.87%

Obama 272
Romney 266

Yeah...  Romney is going to have to do a little bit better than 10%.
 
Really, it just shows how strongly divided the states are.  Obama really blew out McCain in all the swing states to win the EC, but McCain did well enough in Republican strongholds to make the popular vote a lot closer.

Wondering how you came to this result? Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire all had a margin less than 10 points in 2008.

Swing states, uniform swing 10% in 2008 from Obama to Romney in 2012

Colorado Obama 53% McCain 44% > Romney 49% Obama 48%
Florida Obama 50% McCain 48% > 53% Romney Obama 45%
Indiana Obama 49% McCain 48% > Romney 53% Obama 44%
Nevada Obama 55% McCain 42% > Romney 47% Obama 50%
North Carolina Obama 49% McCain 49% > Romney 54% Obama 44%
Ohio Obama 49% McCain 48% > Romney 53% Obama 44%
Virgnia Obama 52% McCain 46% > Romney 51% Obama 47%

[Adam Griffin]

I could see Romney swing at least 15% of the vote from Obama to him, he'll have to do the math correctly.

Did you mean 15% of Obama's total 2008 vote or a 15 point change (-7.5 from D, +7.5 to R)?

EDIT: Actually, they're pretty similar. 15% of Obama's vote would be 7.93 points.

Barack Obama - 162
Mitt Romney - 376

[ajb]

A uniform swing from what?

People who voted Obama in 2008, didn't like what he's done thus far and vote for Romney as an alternative.  I'm taking 5% off Obama and moving them toward the Romney from 2008 % results. I use 5% from a recent PPP poll with Obama leading Romney in Nevada, and doing that nationwide.

Well, that PPP NV poll is 51-43, and the 2008 election was 55-43 (to be precise, 55.15-42.65), so that's actually a 4-4.5 point swing away from Obama, not a 5-point. Which makes a difference.

[5280]

4.5%? Im rounding it up to 5% to make it simplified.

[ajb]

4.5%? Im rounding it up to 5% to make it simplified.

But it is a 4.5% swing, not a 10% swing, which is what seems to have taken hold elsewhere on the thread. Not that there's anything wrong with speculating on any possible swing, but there's no evidence for a 10-point swing in that PPP poll of NV.
While we were at it, it would be fun to speculate on what the election would look like with, say, a uniform 3-point swing towards Obama, as recent polling out of, for example, OH and NC would suggest.

[Adam Griffin]

While we were at it, it would be fun to speculate on what the election would look like with, say, a uniform 3-point swing towards Obama, as recent polling out of, for example, OH and NC would suggest.

Pick-ups in MO & MT would be the only change, with movements of MO & IN into the 50% D column and Idaho into the 50% R column.

[Torie]

You boys seem to be torturing yourselves a bit. Obama got 53.7% of the two party vote last time. For Romney to win, the uniform swing needs to be about 4.55%, with Romney getting 50.85% of the two party point, at which time he carries Colorado and goes over 269 electoral votes. That is the bad news for Mittens because Colorado is trending Dem at the moment, not Pub, and the Hispanics will punish Mittens.

The good news for Mittens is that the next state after Colorado is New Hampshire, which falls to Mittens when the two party swing is 4.86%, with Mittens getting 51.56% of the two party vote.

Can NH trend more than 1.56% Mittens' way, giving him 270 electoral votes even if he loses Colorado?  Yes, I think that is in the cards. NH is just made for Mittens ($$$ is more important up there than the currency used in the celestial kingdom, be it the traditional one, or the new age/secular humanist one), and he has one of his homes there, and Hispanics don't live there. The Pubs are very fortunate in that way - very fortunate. NH in short is the place that causes Mittens not to be hold "hostage" to Hispanics, to be blunt about it (assuming he can carry AZ, which I think still has a 1%-2% Pub bias, even after adjusting for the McCain home-state factor and Hispanic Dem trends).

[5280]

You boys seem to be torturing yourselves a bit. Obama got 53.7% of the two party vote last time. For Romney to win, the uniform swing needs to be about 4.55%, with Romney getting 50.85% of the two party point, at which time he carries Colorado and goes over 269 electoral votes. That is the bad news for Mittens because Colorado is trending Dem at the moment, not Pub, and the Hispanics will punish Mittens.

The good news for Mittens is that the next state after Colorado is New Hampshire, which falls to Mittens when the two party swing is 4.86%, with Mittens getting 51.56% of the two party vote.

Can NH trend more than 1.56% Mittens' way, giving him 270 electoral votes even if he loses Colorado?  Yes, I think that is in the cards. NH is just made for Mittens ($$$ is more important up there than the currency used in the celestial kingdom, be it the traditional one, or the new age/secular humanist one), and he has one of his homes there, and Hispanics don't live there. The Pubs are very fortunate in that way - very fortunate. NH in short is the place that causes Mittens not to be hold "hostage" to Hispanics, to be blunt about it (assuming he can carry AZ, which I think still has a 1%-2% Pub bias, even after adjusting for the McCain home-state factor and Hispanic Dem trends).

Romney can win without the Hispanics in CO, he just needs to make sure to court enough people to counter them in other parts of the state.  He's better off going for CO, even if he loses NV.  I can tell you that there will be fraud voting in my state along with others regardless which side of the aisle you sit.  It doesn't matter if CO temporarily trends DEM, it can trend REP for a short period in 2012, and that will give Romney a chance.

[ajb]

You boys seem to be torturing yourselves a bit. Obama got 53.7% of the two party vote last time. For Romney to win, the uniform swing needs to be about 4.55%, with Romney getting 50.85% of the two party point, at which time he carries Colorado and goes over 269 electoral votes.

But wouldn't a 4.55% swing give Obama about 51.4% of the two-party vote?

[Adam Griffin]

You boys seem to be torturing yourselves a bit. Obama got 53.7% of the two party vote last time. For Romney to win, the uniform swing needs to be about 4.55%, with Romney getting 50.85% of the two party point, at which time he carries Colorado and goes over 269 electoral votes.

But wouldn't a 4.55% swing give Obama about 51.4% of the two-party vote?

He didn't mean the actual percentage (as in, "4.55% of 53.7 = 2.41%, 53.7-2.4=51.3%), but rather the Republican amount of the two-party vote (46.3%) with an increase of 4.55 points (46.3 + 4.55 = 50.85%).