Gallup: Women help Obama to 1st significant Swing-State advantage over Romney

[Tender Branson]

MILWAUKEE – President Obama has opened the first significant lead of the 2012 campaign in the nation's dozen top battleground states, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, boosted by a huge shift of women to his side.

In the fifth Swing States survey taken since last fall, Obama leads Republican front-runner Mitt Romney 51%-42% among registered voters just a month after the president had trailed him by two percentage points.

The biggest change came among women under 50. In mid-February, just under half of those voters supported Obama. Now more than six in 10 do while Romney's support among them has dropped by 14 points, to 30%. The president leads him 2-1 in this group.

Romney's main advantage is among men 50 and older, swamping Obama 56%-38%.

...

While women typically are more likely to identify themselves as Democrats than men are, that difference widens to a chasm in the USA TODAY poll. By 41%-24%, women call themselves Democrats; men by 27%-25% say they're Republicans.

The survey of 933 registered voters, taken March 20-26, has a margin of error of +/- 4 points. The swing states surveyed are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-04-01/swing-states-poll/53930684/1

[Ben Romney]

another Bullsh**t poll

none of these swing-states will have a different of over 4% in the end-if so it would be a landslide and blowout victory for the Obumbler!!!

[Democratic Hawk]

another Bullsh**t poll

So am I take it that any poll which doesn't point towards the outcome you desire is going to be bullsh**t?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Its President Obama to you

[5280]

Main stream media spin at its finest!  Typical of that before a general election, same thing in the past.

[Alcon]

Main stream media spin at its finest!  Typical of that before a general election, same thing in the past.

What spin?  This is a poll.  Are they "spinning" by reporting the demographic break-outs somehow?

[Frodo]

It's only 'spin' and 'bullsh**t' if the poll in question is reporting results you don't like.  

Is there any reason for us not to consider this poll as being anything other than valid? 

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

Main stream media spin at its finest!  Typical of that before a general election, same thing in the past.

Gallup is extremely reliable imo. Sooo I don't get where you are getting your accusations from?

[King]

Facts are nothing but hackery these days.

[Ben Romney]

another Bullsh**t poll

So am I take it that any poll which doesn't point towards the outcome you desire is going to be bullsh**t?

Quote
none of these swing-states will have a different of over 4% in the end-if so it would be a landslide and blowout victory for the Obumbler!!!

Its President Obama to you

Democratic Hawk

you`re blind!! Really sorry to say that!!

take a look about the last 50 years a nd show me a swing state go this big for an incubent without being a landslide. NEVER HAPPEN!!  there`s is no way that FL VA NC OH PA WI NH NV CO won`t be close. Each party can win there from now. One way I would like one way not! BUT
it will be defenetily close there by a 4%magin every other poll is from a dream world!
Let`s take OH which goes like the nation if Obama would lead there 51/ 42  that would mean he wins nationally with over 55%- a lot can change but from now that wouldn`t happen!
I have big problems  with one result for so many states. you can`t compare NV FL VA and NH very different!!! FL NC will go red first if not in no way will OH or PA or one of th others

[King]

big for an incubent without being a landslide. NEVER HAPPEN!

Well, see, there's your problem.  You're going on the fundamentally incorrect assumption that this race currently isn't a landslide.

"A lot can change," as you say, but the change would have to be in favor of Romney for him to even have a remote chance.  If Election Day were Tuesday, April 3, 2012, Obama would probably break 55% nationally without a sweat.

[Frodo]

It's starting to seem as if a (hypothetical) Supreme Court decision striking down Roe vs. Wade would be anticlimatic -from Herman Cain to Rush Limbaugh, the Republican Party has succeeded in so stoking women's passions against them that I can scarcely see how it is possible to get women more fired up than they already are. 

[Wisconsin+17]

Didn't people laugh at me when I said that North Carolina would be Solid O (O+6,7) vs Romney?

[pbrower2a]

another Bullsh**t poll

none of these swing-states will have a different of over 4% in the end-if so it would be a landslide and blowout victory for the Obumbler!!!

Again, that is President Obama.

The change may reflect something huge -- a meltdown of support by women for Republicans pols. It's hard to see what -- aside from a personal scandal, an economic meltdown, or a diplomatic/military debacle -- could bring women back to the Republican Party in adequate numbers to offset the current collapse of GOP support.

Several of these states (not including Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin which are not now swing states) will give the President a margin of at least 5%  in November.

One of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia -- or Colorado and Nevada -- clinches it even if by one vote.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ann Romney and Michelle Obama are great women who can get their husbands across the finish line with the women's vote. We saw it in the MA gubernatorial election when Ann was able to blunt Shannon Obien feminism.  I don't think it is yet showing in these polls Ann's popularity but the gap will close near election day and both will compete strongly with this demographic.

[Associate Justice PiT]

another Bullsh**t poll

So am I take it that any poll which doesn't point towards the outcome you desire is going to be bullsh**t?

Quote
none of these swing-states will have a different of over 4% in the end-if so it would be a landslide and blowout victory for the Obumbler!!!

Its President Obama to you

Democratic Hawk

you`re blind!! Really sorry to say that!!

take a look about the last 50 years a nd show me a swing state go this big for an incubent without being a landslide. NEVER HAPPEN!!  there`s is no way that FL VA NC OH PA WI NH NV CO won`t be close. Each party can win there from now. One way I would like one way not! BUT
it will be defenetily close there by a 4%magin every other poll is from a dream world!
Let`s take OH which goes like the nation if Obama would lead there 51/ 42  that would mean he wins nationally with over 55%- a lot can change but from now that wouldn`t happen!
I have big problems  with one result for so many states. you can`t compare NV FL VA and NH very different!!! FL NC will go red first if not in no way will OH or PA or one of th others

     Well a swing state is definitionally a state that is close to the national margin or close in its own margin, depending on the usage. Suggesting the first usage, that leaves three possibilities here:

1. This poll is wrong.
2. Wisconsin will ultimately not be a swing state this year.
3. The election will not be close this year.

     You have summarily discounted all possibilities but the first one, and I suggest hastily so.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ann Romney and Michelle Obama are great women who can get their husbands across the finish line with the women's vote. We saw it in the MA gubernatorial election when Ann was able to blunt Shannon Obien feminism.  I don't think it is yet showing in these polls Ann's popularity but the gap will close near election day and both will compete strongly with this demographic.

What.