Where can Gingrich siphon off delegates from Romney going forward?

[Torie]

I assume my headline is Newt's mission. He's going to flop in that mission in LA, by not hitting the 25% threshold, and therefore is basically irrelevant there. In fact, if he takes more votes away from Santorum than Romney, he may generate a couple of delegates for Romney, since Romney's share of the total votes for Santorum and Romney should go up a bit.

I scanned the rules for the remaining states, and it appears that Newt has potential in but 3 remaining states. Elsewhere in general, his participation will generate delegates potentially for Romney, not siphon them off, by splitting the anti Romney vote (to the extent what support he has left is more anti than pro Romney).

NC:  Strictly proportional delegate allocation there, so he might reduce Romney's take there by few delegates perhaps.

KY:  For 24 delegates, proportional, if Newt can hit a 15% threshold. That may be tough, but possible.

AR:  21 at large delegates allocated proportionately, with a 15% threshold. So Newt could reduce Romney's take by 2-3 delegates maybe, if he hits the 15% threshold. He probably has a better chance of getting there than in KY, but that is a guess. It's still kind of problematical at this point. 12 delegates are from the 4 CD's, and are one of those 2-1-0 affairs, and there with Newt so weak, he probably won't have any impact, nor knock Santorum out of first place in any of the CD's, as a guess.

That seems to be about it. Maybe Newt can siphon off 10 delegates total from Romney, with NC being where most of the action is. NC is on May 8. KY and AR are on May 22.

If I have screwed this up any, feel free to comment. I did this on the fly. In any event, whether Newt is in or out appears to be close to rounding error at this point, unless I have missed something. And May 8 is a long time away, with Newt in the interim essentially accomplishing nothing when it comes to hurting Romney, and he may in fact help him a tad by just being on the ballot and still in the race even though he is not campaigning anywhere but the aforementioned 3 states.

[Lief 🗽]

Texas is also strictly proportionally.

And Newt can hold Mitt under 50% in states that are majority WTA, like NY.

[J. J.]

I assume my headline is Newt's mission. He's going to flop in that mission in LA, by not hitting the 25% threshold, and therefore is basically irrelevant there. In fact, if he takes more votes away from Santorum than Romney, he may generate a couple of delegates for Romney, since Romney's share of the total votes for Santorum and Romney should go up a bit.

He might cost Romney some of his percentage in LA, but I'd guess just one or so at most.  Maybe WI or MD at the CD level.  I'd suspect 0-1 delegates, at most.

[Torie]

Texas is also strictly proportionally.

And Newt can hold Mitt under 50% in states that are majority WTA, like NY.

Good point about Texas. I got confused by all of the Green Papers chit chat about how individual delegates get selected, as opposed to the total for each candidate. And there the action is substantial, so Newt could do some damage to Romney there - say 15 delegates maybe as a wild guess? Newt isn't going to deny Romney getting 50% in NY. TX is May 29, so the downside for Newt is where he might generate delegates for Romney by staying active, whether he goes into a state of not, as he will be doing in LA.

[Torie]

I assume my headline is Newt's mission. He's going to flop in that mission in LA, by not hitting the 25% threshold, and therefore is basically irrelevant there. In fact, if he takes more votes away from Santorum than Romney, he may generate a couple of delegates for Romney, since Romney's share of the total votes for Santorum and Romney should go up a bit.

He might cost Romney some of his percentage in LA, but I'd guess just one or so at most.  Maybe WI or MD at the CD level.  I'd suspect 0-1 delegates, at most.

Or the reverse, if as one assumes, he is reducing the Santorum percentage more. His vote is is as if those of his supporters who would otherwise vote for Santorum or Romney just stay home.

[Lief 🗽]

Newt isn't going to deny Romney getting 50% in NY.

Eh, we'll see. Romney has, as of yet, only broken 50% in three states. Two were Mormon-dominated caucuses, the third was Massachusetts.

[Erc]

I had a long post on this subject here.

In certain proportional states (Oregon, North Carolina, Texas, maybe New Mexico and South Dakota) and caucus states (Missouri, Louisiana, Nebraska, Montana), he may pick up a few delegates and doesn't hurt anyone by doing so.

He also has a role to play in New York, in depriving Romney of a majority.  He may pick up some delegates in Arkansas and Kentucky as well, but he's more likely to hurt Santorum there than help the ABR cause---especially in Arkansas, where he may deprive Santorum of a majority.

Everywhere else he's just helping Romney, unless he thinks he can make a serious play for Maryland or something.

[Torie]

Newt isn't going to deny Romney getting 50% in NY.

Eh, we'll see. Romney has, as of yet, only broken 50% in three states. Two were Mormon-dominated caucuses, the third was Massachusetts.

OK.  I put up the Trende chart again which just seems so eerily accurate, and it appears that it will hold in LA quite well. And bear in mind that the chart is generated from data where Newt was getting a bigger share of the vote, then he is getting now (that may be the biggest factor I would guess as to why Romney ran about 5 points ahead of the 47% projection in Illinois of the 3 candidate vote (he got 47% of the 4 candidate vote).  In any event, if the 50% threshold is not met, only 24 of the delegates are awarded proportionately in NY with a 20% threshold (the rest are first by the post by CD, and there Newt might push Romney into first in a handful of CD's), so maybe we are talking about 10 delegates in the at large column where Romney would be at risk. Santorum would need to get about 40% of the vote in NY to push Romney down below 50% I would think (it is a closed primary, so the Paul factor will be mitigated).  I just don't see NY being that close.

[Torie]

I had a long post on this subject here.

In certain proportional states (Oregon, North Carolina, Texas, maybe New Mexico and South Dakota) and caucus states (Missouri, Louisiana, Nebraska, Montana), he may pick up a few delegates and doesn't hurt anyone by doing so.

He also has a role to play in New York, in depriving Romney of a majority.  He may pick up some delegates in Arkansas and Kentucky as well, but he's more likely to hurt Santorum there than help the ABR cause---especially in Arkansas, where he may deprive Santorum of a majority.

Everywhere else he's just helping Romney, unless he thinks he can make a serious play for Maryland or something.

Thanks Erc.  You are the expert. But Newt isn't going to get 25% in LA per the polls, so there he is helping the Mittens cause as it turns out. Maybe he should announce he is just suspending his campaign in certain states.  In fact, maybe he should announce he is suspending his campaign in LA today!

[Erc]

You're probably right, though I doubt Gingrich is going to pass up any contest in the Confederacy while he's still viable.

If he's still in the race, he should definitely contest the Louisiana caucuses (held at the end of next month), though.