LA PrimR: Magellan Strategies: Santorum Leads Romney by 13% with Gingrich Close Behind

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

New Poll: Louisiana President by Magellan Strategies on 2012-03-19

Summary:

Santorum:	37%
Romney:	24%
Gingrich:	21%
Other:	12%
Undecided:	6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

If the election were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Charles "Buddy" Roemer, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum?

Santorum - 37%

Romney - 24%

Gingrich - 21%

Roemer - 3%

Paul - 3%

Perry - 3%

Bachmann - 2%

Huntsman - 1%

Undecided - 6%

[Keystone Phil]

I got excited then saw Bachmann, Perry and Huntsman registering significant (relatively speaking) support. I wanted to count Roemer in that category, too, but I guess he could do that "well" in his home state.

[Torie]

This time, the regional and demographic variations for Mittens seem rather muted. Louisiana is just - different.

[RogueBeaver]

Hopefully Mittens gets some Big Mo out of IL, but if so it won't be the end of the world.

[Eraserhead]

It'll be interesting to see if anyone votes for Roemer. But yeah, the numbers for Perry and some of the other ex-candidates are a red flag about the quality of this poll... hopefully Santorum wins though.

[RI]

Hopefully Mittens gets some Big Mo out of IL, but if so it won't be the end of the world.

Mo hasn't really existed in this primary season.

[Lief 🗽]

The MoE is probably very high on those CD numbers, but once again Mitt Romney is doing poorly in the VRA district, almost tied for fourth.

[Likely Voter]

Hopefully Mittens gets some Big Mo out of IL, but if so it won't be the end of the world.

Mo hasn't really existed in this primary season.

There was a lot of big mo after IA, after SC, after FL and after MN/MO/CO. The last big mo moment was with MI, but since then the race has been flat with Santorum settling in to be 2nd fiddle. I think that if Romney won in LA he would then have a 3 state streak and Santorum would be diminished, especially losing in the south. If Romney followed that up with all the wins on April 3 then the next 3 weeks would have the press badgering Santorum with "what's the point?" questions as he heads to certain defeat on April 24th.

[ajb]

The MoE is probably very high on those CD numbers, but once again Mitt Romney is doing poorly in the VRA district, almost tied for fourth.

Sample of over 2000 for the whole poll, so MoE isn't utterly terrible for the CD's.

[Beet]

Due to the threshold, if Mittens fails to break 25% of the vote here, he is really in trouble. Consider.

25.01% of the vote = 5 delegates for Mittens, 15 delegates non-Mittens. Or best case scenario, non-Mittens nets 10 delegates over Mittens.

24.99% of the vote = 20 delegates for non-Mittens. Non-Mittens nets 20 delegates over Mittens.

Difference is a net of 10 delegates.

[MaxQue]

No, since non-Romney vote isn't an entity. Only votes over 25% counts.

[Beet]

No, since non-Romney vote isn't an entity. Only votes over 25% counts.

That only accentuates my point even more, since it means 25.01% instead of 24.99% can mean losing more than five delegates. "Non-Romney" is not an entity for proportional purposes, but it is for avoiding a brokered convention purposes (although I imagine if Romney were at 1139, there would be heavy pressure on Gingrich and Santorum to drop out).

[J. J.]

No, since non-Romney vote isn't an entity. Only votes over 25% counts.

That only accentuates my point even more, since it means 25.01% instead of 24.99% can mean losing more than five delegates. "Non-Romney" is not an entity for proportional purposes, but it is for avoiding a brokered convention purposes (although I imagine if Romney were at 1139, there would be heavy pressure on Gingrich and Santorum to drop out).

Beet is correct, as usual.  A vote of Romney 24.9%, Gingrich 24.0%, Others 10.1% and Santorum 41 will net Santorum 20 delegates (if it is even across the state).  A vote of Romney 25.01%, Gingrich 20.00%, Others 5% and Santorum 50.99% will give  him 13 delegates and Romney 7 delegates, for a net gain of six for Rick.

[Torie]

Due to the threshold, if Mittens fails to break 25% of the vote here, he is really in trouble. Consider.

25.01% of the vote = 5 delegates for Mittens, 15 delegates non-Mittens. Or best case scenario, non-Mittens nets 10 delegates over Mittens.

24.99% of the vote = 20 delegates for non-Mittens. Non-Mittens nets 20 delegates over Mittens.

Difference is a net of 10 delegates.

The only thing that matters is the number of delegates Mittens gets. 5 delegates are at stake here. I consider Newt and Rick as one candidate at this point, and I don't expect Newt to be campaigning in any state where his increasing his vote share, might increase the number of Mittens delegates. In other words, I expect to see him only in proportional states.

[J. J.]

Due to the threshold, if Mittens fails to break 25% of the vote here, he is really in trouble. Consider.

25.01% of the vote = 5 delegates for Mittens, 15 delegates non-Mittens. Or best case scenario, non-Mittens nets 10 delegates over Mittens.

24.99% of the vote = 20 delegates for non-Mittens. Non-Mittens nets 20 delegates over Mittens.

Difference is a net of 10 delegates.

The only thing that matters is the number of delegates Mittens gets. 5 delegates are at stake here. I consider Newt and Rick as one candidate at this point, and I don't expect Newt to be campaigning in any state where his increasing his vote share, might increase the number of Mittens delegates. In other words, I expect to see him only in proportional states.

It is actually a bit lower.  Once the 25% threshold is reached, the delegates will be divided.  If Mittens get just 25% and Santorum gets 50%, Mittens gets 1/3 of the delegates with Rick getting 2/3, or 6 to 14.

If Romney should get 30% Santorum 45%, Mittens gets 8 and Santorum gets 12.

If Newt also breaks 25%, Mitt 28%, and Santorum gets 45%, the split is 5, 6, 9.

[J. J.]

My guess is a 60/40 split on the proportional delegates.  Santorum 12, Romney 8.