1864: Lincoln vs Fremont vs McClellan

[CatoMinor]

I was reading recently that until a last minute compromise, the radical Republicans had bolted from the party and were running Fremont against Lincoln as the Radical Democracy Party. They finally backed down and Fremont withdrew from the race when Lincoln "resigned" his Postmaster General.

How you guys think 1864 would look if the Radicals had continued onward with their challenge? I think they would do well in New England, and maybe Fremont would pull in California do to his western ties. McClellan would no doubt benefit from the divide, but enough to obtain a majority of the EV?

I think if it could of gotten thrown to the house, Fremont would have had it.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Who're the running mates? Anyway, I think this is a pretty good split.

McClellan: 114
Lincoln: 102
Fremont: 17

117 needed for a majority, the election goes to the House. Not sure what the House delegations looked like at that time, but Lincoln might keep the Mid-West, Fremont do well in the West and New England, and McClellan end up with Kentucky and maybe Maryland and Delaware. I might go and look at Congress' composition at the time to put that together.

[CatoMinor]

Some one feel free to correct me, but from what I've read I think the radicals had a pretty solid majority in congress.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Some one feel free to correct me, but from what I've read I think the radicals had a pretty solid majority in congress.

Probably, after all they pretty much Insked up Johnson's Presidency. Thing is, going through and sorting out who were radicals and who weren't out of all the representatives from all these states is a tedious task, especially when a number of these guys' wikipedia articles don't mention a thing about their affiliation with radicals while in Congress.

[CatoMinor]

Here is my guess. Party bosses prevail in certain states keeping Fremont off the ballot in NY, and Lincoln off the ballot in others. Voter fraud is rampant on all sides and the election is thrown to the house. After several ballots the results are the same, Fremont with a slight lead in each count, but not enough states to secure a victory. After 5 more votes moderate democrats join with moderate republicans to support Lincoln in an effort to block Lincoln, but not enough copperheads are willing to join and in protest abstain from voting which give radicals an edge in certain state's delegations. Fremont finally wins with a narrow victory.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

McClellan/Pendleton 138, Lincoln/Johnson 78, Fremont/Chase 17

If all three candidates make it on the ballot in all or most states, McClellan has a good chance of winning it outright. PA, NY, CT and NH would turn Democrat easily. Whether Lincoln loses the Midwest states depends on the strength of the Radical Republican faction there - my guess it's strong enough in MI, WI and with Chase as VP, OH. Midwest states West of the Mississippi have a strong Fremont vote but not enough McClellan support for him to win.  California didn't have all that much love for Fremont after a while - look at the 1856 results there. The Western state Fremont is most likely to win might be KS. I suspect he'd win VT and MA. He might win ME, or split it enough for a Democrat win, but I think there'd be enough pro-Lincoln War loyalty there to keep it in the fold.. Although the Radical Republicans were the majority of the party in Congress, the average Republican would have been more moderate.

[Jerseyrules]

Why must you insist upon the destruction of our glorious union?  Crying face.