Will Obama support gay marriage by the time the election comes?

[retromike22]

I think he will, mainly to avoid a conflict with the Democratic 2012 platform.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/15/barack-obama-gay-rights-dnc-democratic-platform_n_1346454.html

Excerpts:

In the past month, almost half of all Democratic senators, several of Obama's national campaign co-chairs, the House Minority Leader and the chairman of the Democratic convention, among others, have said they support adding marriage equality to the platform. Were this the position that the president held, such proclamations would not be a problem. But Obama says he is still publicly “evolving” on marriage equality. And the wave of support to make it a component of his convention has both surprised aides and set off a private push to keep emotions and expectations in check.

Behind the scenes, however, there are concerns that expectations surrounding the platform’s language are moving beyond electoral feasibility. Those concerns peaked when Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), who is the chair of the convention, responded affirmatively when asked whether he thought the platform “should have a marriage equality plank." “I do,” he replied. “I think it’s basic to who we are. ... I don't think the government should be in that business of denying people the fundamental right to marry.

Leading the effort to beef up the platform language on marriage equality is Freedom to Marry, a pro-LGBT rights group that launched a "Democrats: Say I Do" campaign on Feb. 13. The group has proposed platform language that explicitly says the Democratic Party endorses the "freedom to marry” and has been working behind the scenes to solicit support among Democratic officials.

But while the climate seems ripe for the party to make a big statement at the convention, others have urged caution. Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) exemplifies the uncertainty. Despite having recently signed a law legalizing marriage equality in his state, he said he had concerns that promoting it nationally would distract from an economy-centric message.

“I don't know,” O’Malley replied, when asked if equality should be on the platform. “I think the most important thing that we need to do at the convention is stay focused on jobs, focused on the economy, focused on opportunity and making the right decisions now.”


"I think he's on his own timeline, as are millions of other Americans, and I don't think his own thinking depends on where the platform is or ends up, and vice versa," she said.

“I find it impossible to believe that this presidential election will be completed without Barack Obama coming out strongly for marriage equality and Mitt Romney coming out strongly against it,” said Hilary Rosen, a longtime party strategist who is deeply involved in LGBT causes. “I think it would be hard for him to not take a position."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I still say he's too much of a coward. I can see him having a miraculous change of heart sometime in January 2013, though.

[© tweed]

no, if it happens it will be in the second term or post-presidency.

[Likely Voter]

Well there is no way that the party will adopt anything that Obama doesn't want them to adopt. He wont be forced into it by the party. However, I do think that he might get a push by his fundraisers.  A lot of millionaire liberals, especially in Hollywood, want to see Obama support gay marraige. Obama is not doing well with Wall Street millionaires like he did in 2008 and the GOP superpacs could end up outspending Obama's army of small donors.

So in the end I think Obama will do it for the cash.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

I'm thinking he will try to avoid the subject until the election is over.

[Wisconsin+17]

No, because he already does.

[cavalcade]

I still say he's too much of a coward. I can see him having a miraculous change of heart sometime in January 2013, though.

I think it's very clear he will become publicly pro same sex marriage at some point in his second term.  The Democratic leadership gets that, and won't push him too hard on it during the campaign.

[exopolitician]

I wouldn't be surprised if he announced his support during the Convention.

[Tidewater_Wave]

As a typical politician he will. Nothing that guy does surprises me. It's whichever way the wind blows.

[pbrower2a]

So far it is a state issue -- unless a Supreme Court ruling decides it. President Obama won't likely make such a decision until his next federal job -- a Justice of the Supreme Court.   

[ajb]

No, because he already does.

I suspect he does, on a personal level. But on a public level he has maintained his opposition, like just about everyone who's ever run for President or Vice-President. I believe the only candidate who every openly supported gay marriage (provided it was left to the states) was Dick Cheney.

I suspect that it'll be left as a platform item for now, though I hope I'm wrong. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama came out in favor of gay marriage in his second term, if he wins, especially if the courts provide him with some useful cover along the way.

[politicus]

he will try to avoid the subject until the election is over.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

As a typical politician he will. Nothing that guy does surprises me. It's whichever way the wind blows.

>mfw you're a Romney supporter

[Lief 🗽]

Wasn't he publicly against Prop 8 and Prop whatever in Maine?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

As a typical politician he will. Nothing that guy does surprises me. It's whichever way the wind blows.

>mfw you're a Romney supporter

What has Romney flipped flopped on that's as absurd as Obama's flip on gay marriage? Romney said he was personally opposed to abortion but would protect a woman's right to choose, now he says he's pro-life, and always governed as such. Compare that to Obama completely supporting gay marriage, actually outlining his support for it in writing in 1996 (I think), and then suddenly believing a marriage should be between a man and a woman once on the national scene, which I should add no one believed. As soon as gay marriage support started rising, Obama's feelings start 'evolving'.

What do you think the ratio is from people who become opposed to abortion, to people who fanatically support gay marriage and then suddenly become opposed to it?

[Tidewater_Wave]

As a typical politician he will. Nothing that guy does surprises me. It's whichever way the wind blows.

>mfw you're a Romney supporter

Yes but the question is will Obama flip flop on gay marriage? I gave my answer and reasons as to why.

[Cory]

What has Romney flipped flopped on that's as absurd as Obama's flip on gay marriage?

Gay marriage.

[Free Palestine]

Absolutely not, if he wants to get re-elected.

[Thomas D]

If he's running against Santorum then yes. But I think the case against Romnay will be he's a flip flopper who changes his mind on every issue. Which will make it hard for Obama to switch on marriage equality.

[morgieb]

No, but he will in the 2nd term.

ftr, I think he genuinely does support gay marriage, but he doesn't want to tackle the issue (read - he thinks it'll lose him votes).

[Sbane]

No, I doubt it, even though he likely supports it already. Like how he was against Prop 8 even though he was against gay marriage. The country as a whole will not be in favor of gay marriage by 2012, but 2016 or 2020 is a whole another matter. Cuomo has certainly positioned himself well for the future.

[Likely Voter]

actually i believe in 2011 gallup polling showed that a plurality supported gay marraige and certainly the trendlines were in the right direction.

I believe majorities in all areas except the south and all age groups except the olds now support it.

The question is, will Obama lead on this issue, or follow?

[Tidewater_Wave]

I don't know anyone who isn't convinced that Obama supports gay marriage. It's not a big deal but the least he could do is come out and admit it. Bush didn't hide from his positions on social issues.