March 10 Kansas + miscellaneous islands primary/caucus **results thread**

[argentarius]

I think there's a decent chance of that. Not really any great counties left for him.

Surely KC? Also you may think a lot of the grey counties are yet to report, many have but there are no voters there, like last time.

[RI]

Wyandotte County slams Romney at 15%. Santorum almost at 60% there. No KC stronghold for Mitt.

Not a ton of votes though.

[Paleobrazilian]

33 delegates to Rick, 7 for Mittens, assuming a 51% to 21.5% margin  (Mittens should creep ahead a bit more when Wyandotte and Douglas counties come in).  Rick got 6 more delegates than I had assumed (with Mittens underperforming my guess by a mere 14.5% or so, but hey I was right no for the Rick percentage!  ). Congratulations Phil!

So if Romney sweeps VI as expected, it'll be 33 x 28 delegates for Rick today. Not bad, but a net gain of 5 won't help him much in the long run.

[Likely Voter]

So it looks like KS will be Santorum's best state ever.

But if Mitt gets all 9 of the VI delegates, then Mitt will still end the day with more delegates with 34 vs. Rick's 33. But Rick should win the news cycle regardless

[Niemeyerite]

Where do republicans from counties which haven't had caucus vote?

[ajb]

Wyandotte County slams Romney at 15%. Santorum almost at 60% there. No KC stronghold for Mitt.

Not a ton of votes though.

In 2008 general election, Wyandotte gave McCain 16.5k votes, compared to 152k in Johnson. Not a lot of Republicans in Kansas City proper.

[RI]

I don't know if anyone has noticed, but Uncommitted is actually fifth with 113 votes so far.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Romney's no-show in KS isn't going to help him.

Dammit, KS not KA.

[J. J.]

AP is saying 30 for Santorum.  Is that the final?  How many for the others?

So it looks like KS will be Santorum's best state ever.

But if Mitt gets all 9 of the VI delegates, then Mitt will still end the day with more delegates with 34 vs. Rick's 33. But Rick should win the news cycle regardless

The news cycle will be as important as it was last week with WA and Fox, at least, was noting Romney takes the islands.

[Minnesota Mike]

Where do republicans from counties which haven't had caucus vote?

They can vote at any Caucus in their Congressional District.

http://ksgop.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/2012-Caucus-FAQ-Voter.pdf

[argentarius]

11 rural precincts left. Romney has to go down .7% for me to be happy. Don't let me down now, bible-beaters.

[Niemeyerite]

Where do republicans from counties which haven't had caucus vote?

They can vote at any Caucus in their Congressional District.

http://ksgop.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/2012-Caucus-FAQ-Voter.pdf

Thanks

[Matthew]

My Kansas prediction
Santorum 51%
Romney 26%
Newt Gingrich 16%
Ron Paul 7%


Guam Prediction
Romney 68%
Santorum 21%
Newt Gingrich 8%
Ron Paul 3%
---
what occurred
Romney 83%


Virgin Islands
Romney 54%
Santorum 26%

Northern Mariana Islands
Romney 52%
Santorum 34%
Newt Gingrich 12%
Ron Paul 2%

Looking like Santorum gets 51-52% for Kansas. Huckabee won it by 60 percent in 2008, so I'd say Santorum has underperformed. I don't expect Santorum to break 50 percent in Missouri as 1# it has twice as many people, 2# far bigger population centers.


My prediction for Missouri
48% Santorum
28% Romney(At least)

Depending if Gingrich gets to be on the ballot here. If he does then Santorum will be in the lower 40's.

Guam outperformed for Romney.
 Northern Mariana want strongly for Romney...

[Paleobrazilian]

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Romney's no-show in KA isn't going to help him.

IMO, even the KS caucuses won't get much spin - everyone knew Santorum was winning there from the beginning. Plus, Romney seeks to be in good shape in AL and MS, all he has to do is keep spending there like there's no tomorrow.

[Niemeyerite]

We have learnt something from this Caucus. There are mormons living in Lane County.

[RI]

Two rural counties came in with Romney over 20%. He should be locked in now.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Well, you guys were right - Santorum did get over 50%.

[Wisconsin+17]

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He got 52 in Missouri before. See no reason why that would change now.

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Newt's done, as tonight showed. Yet another state where he can't beat Romney.

[RI]

7 counties left. The only sizeable one is Douglas, where Paul should do well...maybe.

[Torie]

We have learnt something from this Caucus. There are mormons living in Lane County.

They must be recent arrivals or converts.  

[Likely Voter]

can someone explain how the delegates would be different if Romney goes under 20 vs if he goes over 20? Did Romney pull out of KS in hopes that he wouldn't break 20?

[RI]

Santorum won Douglas with 37%. Paul was third with 22%. Paul fail.

[Torie]

can someone explain how the delegates would be different if Romney goes under 20 vs if he goes over 20? Did Romney pull out of KS in hopes that he wouldn't break 20?

If you are below 20%, you lose your proportional share of the 25 at large delegates, so if Mittens were held below 20%, he loses his 7 delegates, which is a fair amount of change. If Mittens knew it was going to be this tight, he would have dropped by Johnson County for a visit I suspect.

[RI]

can someone explain how the delegates would be different if Romney goes under 20 vs if he goes over 20? Did Romney pull out of KS in hopes that he wouldn't break 20?

If you are below 20%, you lose your proportional share of the 25 at large delegates, so if Mittens were held below 20%, he loses his 7 delegates, which is a fair amount of change. If Mittens knew it was going to be this tight, he would have dropped by Johnson County for a visit I suspect.

Not true. If Romney dropped below 20%, he would still get some at-large delegates, but so would Gingrich and Paul. With Romney above 20%, Gingrich and Paul don't get any.

[Niemeyerite]

We have learnt something from this Caucus. There are mormons living in Lane County.

They must be recent arrivals or converts.  

So, I was trolling. Sorry you all.