NY-Siena: Romney to win New York

[Tender Branson]

38% Romney
23% Santorum
13% Gingrich
11% Paul

www.siena.edu/sri

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Well duh.

[Tender Branson]

Well duh.

Big surprise, isn't it ?

[Eraserhead]

That's actually a very respectable showing for Santorum.

[Keystone Phil]

I wouldn't bet against Romney in NY but these are hardly game ending numbers especially with the amount of undecided voters. Plus, this was taken before Santorum's rebound.

[J. J.]

I wouldn't bet against Romney in NY but these are hardly game ending numbers especially with the amount of undecided voters. Plus, this was taken before Santorum's rebound.

Actually, it was taking after the Santorum rebound, but before the Romney Rebound was complete.

[Keystone Phil]

I wouldn't bet against Romney in NY but these are hardly game ending numbers especially with the amount of undecided voters. Plus, this was taken before Santorum's rebound.

Actually, it was taking after the Santorum rebound, but before the Romney Rebound was complete.

The poll wasn't taken after today, J.J. I know you feel differently but last night is seen as a good night for Rick.

[Niemeyerite]

Gingrich has to drop out. If he doesn't, NY will never be competitive.

[ajb]

If I'm understanding the rules correctly, with these numbers Santorum would win 13 out of 34 statewide delegates. Keeping Romney under 50%, and Gingrich under 20%, is crucial here -- one of several cases where Santorum benefits from Gingrich staying in. I'd also have to think he'd be competitive in some of the upstate congressional districts, right?

[Erc]

If I'm understanding the rules correctly, with these numbers Santorum would win 13 out of 34 statewide delegates. Keeping Romney under 50%, and Gingrich under 20%, is crucial here -- one of several cases where Santorum benefits from Gingrich staying in. I'd also have to think he'd be competitive in some of the upstate congressional districts, right?

He may be competitive in several NYC congressional districts, for all we know.  Romney hasn't been doing so hot in VRA districts in general.

[Torie]

An elderly Jewish couple lives next door to me. They were school teachers (he a professor of English at a JC, who lived in Huntington, New York before they retired to the great OC (after moving first to one of those condo buildings in Broward County, where all their nosey crabby old women neighbors in the building also from NY typically drove them nuts, so they decamped). They are basically rather secular (they go to Temple on the major holidays only), center left Democrats. Their daughter was visiting. It turns out she is a "messianic Christian," as she put it, who believes Jesus is her Lord and Savior from a "Jewish" perspective. She lives in Utica New York and she and her husband are voting for Rick Santorum. After taking this all in, my response was, "well, you have been on quite a journey haven't you?" She said yes.

We live in an interesting and fascinating country don't we?

[J. J.]

I wouldn't bet against Romney in NY but these are hardly game ending numbers especially with the amount of undecided voters. Plus, this was taken before Santorum's rebound.

Actually, it was taking after the Santorum rebound, but before the Romney Rebound was complete.

The poll wasn't taken after today, J.J. I know you feel differently but last night is seen as a good night for Rick.

By who was Super Tuesday seen as a good night for Santorum?

[Keystone Phil]

I wouldn't bet against Romney in NY but these are hardly game ending numbers especially with the amount of undecided voters. Plus, this was taken before Santorum's rebound.

Actually, it was taking after the Santorum rebound, but before the Romney Rebound was complete.

The poll wasn't taken after today, J.J. I know you feel differently but last night is seen as a good night for Rick.

By who was Super Tuesday seen as a good night for Santorum?

The media has been playing ND up as a "surprise" win (CNN and MSNBC at least) and the headlines I've seen are about Mitt not sealing the deal/an unhappy base. Newt gets credit for a home state win but that's not saying much. Who wins by default?

[Landslide Lyndon]

I wouldn't bet against Romney in NY but these are hardly game ending numbers especially with the amount of undecided voters. Plus, this was taken before Santorum's rebound.

Actually, it was taking after the Santorum rebound, but before the Romney Rebound was complete.

The poll wasn't taken after today, J.J. I know you feel differently but last night is seen as a good night for Rick.

By who was Super Tuesday seen as a good night for Santorum?

The media has been playing ND up as a "surprise" win (CNN and MSNBC at least) and the headlines I've seen are about Mitt not sealing the deal/an unhappy base. Newt gets credit for a home state win but that's not saying much. Who wins by default?

Well, they are not exactly portraying Santorum as the winner.
But indeed, when even freaking Politico's main article about Super Tuesday starts by saying that Romney failed to address his vulnerabilities, then you know that Mittens lost the spin war badly.

[J. J.]

I wouldn't bet against Romney in NY but these are hardly game ending numbers especially with the amount of undecided voters. Plus, this was taken before Santorum's rebound.

Actually, it was taking after the Santorum rebound, but before the Romney Rebound was complete.

The poll wasn't taken after today, J.J. I know you feel differently but last night is seen as a good night for Rick.

By who was Super Tuesday seen as a good night for Santorum?

The media has been playing ND up as a "surprise" win (CNN and MSNBC at least) and the headlines I've seen are about Mitt not sealing the deal/an unhappy base. Newt gets credit for a home state win but that's not saying much. Who wins by default?

Which was offset by AK, in terms of a win.

Two things to note:

Gingrich's strategy was to get all the delegates in GA.  It was a good strategy, but it failed. 

Santorum supposedly had wide leads in TN and OK.  He won, but those leads were lower.  That hurt him in OK. where he ended up just one delegate ahead.

It was not a good night for Romney, but it was a worse night for Santorum and Gingrich.

[Keystone Phil]

J.J., Santorum's win in TN was larger than expected. Come on now.

[argentarius]

The media were thick for having Romney as the favourite in ND. Where the hell did they get that idea from? It was clear that the guy who won CO, IA, MN, and MO was gonna win ND.

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum is sort of a natural for ND but Romney did cruise there in 2008 so that would explain the surprise.

[J. J.]

J.J., Santorum's win in TN was larger than expected. Come on now.

It was suppose to be double digits in TN, then it eroded.  It wasn't a lot of erosion, but it was noticeable.  OK was far worse.

And, to be fair, Gingrich's victory in GA was weak enough that it gave Romney (and Santorum) a few delegates.  That may be the under reported story of the night.

Romney could have 1-2 points stronger in OH, but it is still impressive (and it probably didn't cost him any delegates).

ND was a unpleasant surprise for Romney, but AK was a very pleasant one.

[Keystone Phil]

but AK was a very pleasant one.

What? Most people had it going to Paul or Romney. It wasn't surprising. At all.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Can Paul win one of those districts in NYC that have like 5 Republicans in them?

[J. J.]

but AK was a very pleasant one.

What? Most people had it going to Paul or Romney. It wasn't surprising. At all.

Who thought it was going to Romney.  Gingrich was a possibility as was Santorum.  It was suppose to be a libertarian or socially conservative state.

[Keystone Phil]

but AK was a very pleasant one.

What? Most people had it going to Paul or Romney. It wasn't surprising. At all.

Who thought it was going to Romney.  Gingrich was a possibility as was Santorum.  It was suppose to be a libertarian or socially conservative state.

...

I...you know what...ok.

[Lief 🗽]

Can Paul win one of those districts in NYC that have like 5 Republicans in them?

Romney has done very poorly in those districts so far, so it's certainly a possibility. I'm actually curious who the Republicans are in these districts; I always assumed they were affluent minorities that voted based on economic issues, but that's clearly not the case if Romney is losing them to Paul and Santorum. 

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3620120229079