What happens if Santorum actually wins Ohio tomorrow?

[Lief 🗽]

Of course it's not happening (for we truly live in the worst of all worlds), but if he does, is the race back on?

[Eraserhead]

I guess? He can't even get a bunch of the delegates available from there though because of his own campaign's ineptitude.

I have more hope for Newt and his little southern strategy.

[tmthforu94]

I guess? He can't even get a bunch of the delegates available from there though because of his own campaign's ineptitude.

I have more hope for Newt and his little southern strategy.

Newt played it smart - with a win in Georgia, strong showing in Tennessee, and two big wins in Alabama and Mississippi next week, he could be right back in this.

[Lief 🗽]

I guess? He can't even get a bunch of the delegates available from there though because of his own campaign's ineptitude.

I have more hope for Newt and his little southern strategy.

The media doesn't really care about delegates, though.

[Eraserhead]

I guess? He can't even get a bunch of the delegates available from there though because of his own campaign's ineptitude.

I have more hope for Newt and his little southern strategy.

The media doesn't really care about delegates, though.

Indeed. But at some point, they will start to matter. Romney will never drop out due to being embarrassed in a few states.

[ajb]

I think it's going to be pretty hard for anyone not named Mitt Romney to win the nomination at this point. But there's a real difference between winning easy and winning hard. A Santorum win in OH would definitely keep us on the "winning hard" track, as would Gingrich doing well in MS/AL next week. Romney wins in OH and TN tomorrow, and in MS/AL next week, would move him decisively to the winning easy side, and would give him the chance to start rebuilding his reputation with general election voters.

[argentarius]

If Rick wins Ohio tomorrow (and as a given Romney loses Tennessee) then Kansas, MS and AL are totally out of reach, and I think Santorum would take Illinois too, leaving Romney shut out for nearly a month. He should take Maryland/DC on April 3rd. I think even if Romney wins Ohio Kansas will be out of reach (Huckabeee won there in 2008 completely against the run of play) and Newt will surely take MS and AL if he does well at all tomorrow. So I don't think Ohio is that decisive, maybe it could decide Illinois.

[Torie]

Of course it's not happening (for we truly live in the worst of all worlds), but if he does, is the race back on?

Not if despite that, Mittens bags about half the delegates, which is what I expect. It is about delegate counts now. I expect the momentum thing to fade.

I expect Mittens to win Illinois by the way. The demographics there are much better for him than either Michigan or Ohio.

[Reds4]

Seems to me like Ohio is likely to go Romney, but it should be very close. The feedback from Huckabee's forum in Wilmington the other night from most people I know in Ohio was that Romney and Gingrich both did better in that forum than Santorum did. I'm sure there weren't too many people watching that, but it likely swayed some votes.

If Santorum does win though, it is definitely huge news and gives him momentum again.

[hotpprs]

Romney is going to have the most delegates going into the GOP convention.
Big wins by Santorum or Gringrich can only, at best, deny Romney a first ballot win at the convention.
But regardless, the GOP is not going to pick anyone else when Romney gets to the convention with his lead. There may be some back room deals to get him the delegates to put him over the top. But he will be the nominee. Period. End of story.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Goddamn, this is frusterating.

Count up the delegates. The south - FL is not enough delegates. to even force a brokered convention.

Santorum gives you the same strength in the south + strength in the midwest sufficient to beat Romney.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Newt's done already.

[King]

What I'm hoping for is that Gingrich and Santorum both win a couple of states and, as a result, both surge (as Romney only truly has about 27% of real support) and we have a three way race the rest of the way.  If Romney has attack two people at once, he'll completely fall apart.

[argentarius]

What I'm hoping for is that Gingrich and Santorum both win a couple of states and, as a result, both surge (as Romney only truly has about 27% of real support) and we have a three way race the rest of the way.  If Romney has attack two people at once, he'll completely fall apart.

I can't believe so few people see this. Even if Romney takes 7 states tomorrow he's not taking KS, MS or AL. Who will you vote for in NM King?

[J. J.]

Of course it's not happening (for we truly live in the worst of all worlds), but if he does, is the race back on?

After KS, there really is no place for him to go.  If he stays in, and looks strong, he hurts Gingrich in the south and throws AL and MI to Romney.  He'd have to hold out until MO, and refight that.

The calendar, after the 13th, favors Mittens.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Right now, Gingrich is hurting him in the south, not the reverse. Santorum's actually stronger than Newt.

[King]

What I'm hoping for is that Gingrich and Santorum both win a couple of states and, as a result, both surge (as Romney only truly has about 27% of real support) and we have a three way race the rest of the way.  If Romney has attack two people at once, he'll completely fall apart.

I can't believe so few people see this. Even if Romney takes 7 states tomorrow he's not taking KS, MS or AL. Who will you vote for in NM King?

Depends on what the polls show.  If looks clear in any direction, I'll probably just vote for Paul.

NM is near last in the nation so it likely won't matter.

[J. J.]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Right now, Gingrich is hurting him in the south, not the reverse. Santorum's actually stronger than Newt.

No, Santorum is hurting Gingrich in the south, or will be if he's still running next week.  GA is not a problem and TN is up for grabs.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Gosh, this is fun.

Newt is hurting Santorum in the South, because Santorum is stronger than Newt.

What part of 'Santorum stronger than Newt', aren't you getting?

[J. J.]

J.J is a subterranean mammal which I wish to beat with a plastic hammer.

As I've said before, unless you're female, tall, and dark skinned, I won't be going there.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

The big question is not if neocon Rick wins Ohio, it's if Ron Paul wins a state fair and square and doesnt get cheated like he did in Iowa and Maine (which RP won but they were given to Mitt)

[Gustaf]

I think the campaign narrative is about to shift to delegates pretty soon. That's what happened after last Super Tuesday, after all, in 2008. Huckabee winning both states after it did not stop McCain for example.