which of the 03/06 states will Romney win?

[© tweed]

[Thomas D]

ID MA VA VT

[argentarius]

That is a pathetic group of states for super tuesday.

[Stranger in a strange land]

ID, MA, VA, VT

[Earthling]

ID, MA, VA, VT.

But if he wins big next Tuesday than Ohio, North Dakota and Alaska are also for him.

[Scooter]

VA, VT, MA, ID, and he will probably take one more either Alaska or ND

Gingrich takes GA, and maybe TN if he's lucky

Santorum takes the rest

[California8429]

ID MA VA VT

AK and OH aren't out of reach. Though i think AK, ND, OH go to Santorum

Gingrich wins GA. And it's a toss-up for TN and OK between him and Santorum

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

Mittens wins AK, ID, MA, VA, VT

Santorum wins OH, TN, OK

Paul wins ND

Gingrich wins GA

[Lambsbread]

ID MA VA VT

This.


AK and ND will likely go either Santorum or Paul. OH, OK and TN will be Santorum states. GA will be a Gingrich state.

[Keystone Phil]

ID, ND, MA, VA, VT

Santorum wins the rest besides Georgia (going for Newt).

[RI]

Why do people think ND will go for Romney? He won it by less than MN or CO last time, and the demographics there are nothing special for him. Santorum should fairly easily win there.

[Torie]

ID, ND, MA, VA, VT

Santorum wins the rest besides Georgia (going for Newt).

I agree with this, except that I have no idea who will win strictly proportional Alaska (so it doesn't matter much anyway). Heck, even Paul could win Alaska.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Why do people think ND will go for Romney? He won it by less than MN or CO last time, and the demographics there are nothing special for him. Santorum should fairly easily win there.

In fact, he's probably at risk of coming in 3rd there, as ND has a pretty strong paleoconservative/isolationist streak, so Paul could very well come in 2nd, especially as it seems he's been targeting ND.

Alaska also has pretty awful demographics for him. I'd think Santorum is favored there, though nobody has any idea what will happen there, and I wouldn't even rule out a Paul win.

If he wins MI this Tuesday, it will give him a boost which might help him win OH, especially if Newt has a strong performance there and he saturates the state with money like he's been doing.

[Joe Biden 2020]

My choices, Alaska, Idaho, Massachusetts, Virginia (by default), Vermont.  I think North Dakota will go to Santorum because of what happened in neighboring Minnesota earlier this month.

[Eraserhead]

He'll probably win everything except for Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma.

Look in your hearts, people. You know this to be true.

[RI]

He'll probably win everything except for Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma.

Look in your hearts, people. You know this to be true.

Why do you have to be so depressing?

[ajb]

I don't feel confident yet about who will win each state. But Ohio is the only one of them that matters.

[redcommander]

Massachusetts, Vermont, Idaho, and Virginia are near certain wins for Romney. North Dakota I would say would be leans Romney at this point, but polling needs to come out of the state. Caribou Barbie probably wields enough influence in Alaska still to help whoever is the flavor of the week against Romney to win. Georgia, Tennessee, and Oklahoma are out of reach for Mitt. Ohio is anyone's guess.

[J. J.]

Massachusetts, Vermont, Idaho, and Virginia are near certain wins for Romney. North Dakota I would say would be leans Romney at this point, but polling needs to come out of the state. Caribou Barbie probably wields enough influence in Alaska still to help whoever is the flavor of the week against Romney to win. Georgia, Tennessee, and Oklahoma are out of reach for Mitt. Ohio is anyone's guess.

Do we have any polling out of OK?

[redcommander]

Massachusetts, Vermont, Idaho, and Virginia are near certain wins for Romney. North Dakota I would say would be leans Romney at this point, but polling needs to come out of the state. Caribou Barbie probably wields enough influence in Alaska still to help whoever is the flavor of the week against Romney to win. Georgia, Tennessee, and Oklahoma are out of reach for Mitt. Ohio is anyone's guess.

Do we have any polling out of OK?

Yes. Santorum is up big there. Plus Romney underperformed expectations in the state against McCain if I remember correctly.

[Eraserhead]

He'll probably win everything except for Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma.

Look in your hearts, people. You know this to be true.

Why do you have to be so depressing?

Just trying to be realistic!

[© tweed]

He'll probably win everything except for Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma.

Look in your hearts, people. You know this to be true.

Why do you have to be so depressing?

Just trying to be realistic!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depressive_realism

[morgieb]

Well Massachusetts, Virginia and Vermont are in the bag. Idaho's probable, but it's also a Caucus state, so it wouldn't surprise me if Paul won in an upset. Alaska and North Dakota are 'maybes'. Demographics don't suit Romney so well, and they're Caucus states. Palin can easily help Santorum or even Gingrich win there, and North Dakota looks like a Santorum leaning state, with Paul a possibility to push Romney to 3rd.

Ohio....well if he wins big on Super Tuesday, then yes Romney should win this state. Demographics are awful, however, and Santorum neighbouring Ohio should help him win. The other three are out of reach - he maybe has a chance in Georgia, but that looks like a Gingrich win, with Santorum coming 2nd.

[Eraserhead]

He'll probably win everything except for Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma.

Look in your hearts, people. You know this to be true.

Why do you have to be so depressing?

Just trying to be realistic!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depressive_realism

If Santorum pulls it off in Michigan, I will definitely be changing my predictions. We'll see.