CA: Field Poll: Obama clobbers all Republicans

[Tender Branson]

http://www.sacbee.com/2012/02/23/4284648/field-poll-obama-resurgent-in.html

[Tender Branson]

It's hard to see how Santorum could be anywhere close to a "tie" with Obama nationally, with these kinds of numbers in CA.

These numbers make the polls showing Obama up by 5-10% nationally more credible.

[Landslide Lyndon]

California is one of those rare states where Romney's electability argument is legit.
Then again losing by 20 points instead of 30 doesn't make you look very good.

[Eraserhead]

Gingrich is doing better than Santorum here.

(Could the cartoon of Gingrich be any more unflattering btw? lol.)

[redcommander]

If you factor in undecideds, the state would probably go 58 Obama-40 Romney if the election were held today. I don't see Romney finishing below 40% since Obama over performed in the state last time around.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If you factor in undecideds, the state would probably go 58 Obama-40 Romney if the election were held today. I don't see Romney finishing below 40% since Obama over performed in the state last time around.

Oh, I'm sure Mittens endorsing the Arizona anti-immigration law will do wonders for his numbers in California.

[redcommander]

If you factor in undecideds, the state would probably go 58 Obama-40 Romney if the election were held today. I don't see Romney finishing below 40% since Obama over performed in the state last time around.

Oh, I'm sure Mittens endorsing the Arizona anti-immigration law will do wonders for his numbers in California.

The state has a PVI of D+7. He should at least be guaranteed a floor of 40% in a more favorable Republican year.

[Miles]

It's hard to see how Santorum could be anywhere close to a "tie" with Obama nationally, with these kinds of numbers in CA.

These numbers make the polls showing Obama up by 5-10% nationally more credible.

I agree. Santorum does worse than Goldwater in this CA poll.

[Хahar 🤔]

If you factor in undecideds, the state would probably go 58 Obama-40 Romney if the election were held today. I don't see Romney finishing below 40% since Obama over performed in the state last time around.

Oh, I'm sure Mittens endorsing the Arizona anti-immigration law will do wonders for his numbers in California.

The state has a PVI of D+7. He should at least be guaranteed a floor of 40% in a more favorable Republican year.

I'm not sure why 2012 would be more favorable than 2008 in California.

[redcommander]

If you factor in undecideds, the state would probably go 58 Obama-40 Romney if the election were held today. I don't see Romney finishing below 40% since Obama over performed in the state last time around.

Oh, I'm sure Mittens endorsing the Arizona anti-immigration law will do wonders for his numbers in California.

The state has a PVI of D+7. He should at least be guaranteed a floor of 40% in a more favorable Republican year.

I'm not sure why 2012 would be more favorable than 2008 in California.

You expect Obama to do better than 60% of the vote?

[Ebowed]

You expect Obama to do better than 60% of the vote?

Uh, in California?  Absolutely...

[CLARENCE 2015!]

If Obama is leading  I am very concerned...

[Niemeyerite]

I also think Obama will break 60% in California. McCain was from the state next to CA and was a better candidate than Romney or Santorum are. And more moderate, too.

I know 2008 was a very, very bad year for republicans, and 2012 will probably be a better year. But Santorum vs. Romney will be a very tough battle, and the winner will be very damaged after the Convention. Obama doesn't have to fight against Clinton like he did in 2008... so hell have time to fundraise in California, campaign everywhere in the USA... And destroy Romney and Santorum in cash on hand. So, I think it's possible he could even break 66% if everything goes as expected...

[AndrewTX]

Obama is ahead? GAME CHANGER!

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

California is one of those rare states where Romney's electability argument is legit.
Then again losing by 20 points instead of 30 doesn't make you look very good.

Right. Romney can win back affluent whites, but won't do much better with Hispanics. In a close election, Romney should get 42-43%-ish.

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

While I think 66% is a bit of a stretch, it is very likely that Obama wins 60%-63% in 2012.

I mean our nominee would have to be a conservative McGovern to lose 2/3rds of CA.

I say in BEST case for GOP:

58.6% Obama
40.1% Repub


What will prob. happen:

61.4% Obama
37.2% Repub

[ajb]

I'd presume that Romney would do slightly worse with Hispanic voters than McCain did, all other things being equal, given their respective stances on immigration.