who will win the Michigan Republican primary?

[© tweed]

Romney

[Whacker77]

Someone who has little chance to be president.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Crossing fingers for Santorum.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Santorum will blow Romney out of the water.

[NHI]

Romney.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Santorum will win the PV by about 5 points, but there's a significant chance that Romney might actually get more delegates.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Sadly, the Super PAC will do its work soon. Santorum hasn't much time left.

[Torie]

I suspect Rick will get more delegates. The odds are that he will get more votes than Mittens too, but the odds for that are lower, say 3-2.  Mittens I suspect has disproportionate, and thus wasted, strength, in Oakland County and Livonia, and parts of Wastenaw. Thus Mittens could get a plurality of the popular vote, while Rick carries the majority of the CD's - maybe everything but the Rogers, McCotter, Dingel, Upton and two black CD's as a guess.

[Mehmentum]

The Santorum surge has been longer lasting than Newt's, for what its worth.  I'm leaning towards Santorum winning right now.

[redcommander]

Romney. I don't think Santorum can pull off a win with such little staff and PAC support, even if he is doing well in the state right now.

[Thomas D]

Santorum by about 15,000 votes.

[Eraserhead]

Romney. I'd only give Santorum 1/3 chance.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I suspect Rick will get more delegates. The odds are that he will get more votes than Mittens too, but the odds for that are lower, say 3-2.  Mittens I suspect has disproportionate, and thus wasted, strength, in Oakland County and Livonia, and parts of Wastenaw. Thus Mittens could get a plurality of the popular vote, while Rick carries the majority of the CD's - maybe everything but the Rogers, McCotter, Dingel, Upton and two black CD's as a guess.

Romney needs to organize in Grand Rapids. He might be able to take the third with such an urban strategy rather than a East-West regionalized primary.

I read an article in Detroit News that described Oakland as an island for Mittens in a sea of Santorum (not the exact wording here ).

[Sbane]

I think macomb county will be key as well. And yes, if I were mittens I would focus on Grand Rapids. I suppose Flint and Saginaw won't take a liking to him either.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Santorum by 5 pts.

[Whacker77]

I just want to see Santorum win because it would throw this three ring circus into chaos.  The conservative momentum is with Santorum, but he's got 10 days to go.  That's like three years in campaigning.  There is some obscure poll out this morning showing Rick and Mitt tied at 33%, but PPP tweeted last night that Santorum still holds a lead in their first night of polling.

The expectations have been set high for Santorum so any comeback by Mitt could be parlayed into positive momentum for him.  Still, Michigan is his home state and I think he's got to win the race convincingly in order to quell the revolt.  Winning by two or three points won't help Romney as they head to Super Tuesday.

Michigan and Super Tuesday will either end Romney's chances or give him a needed boost of energy.  Short of blowouts for him though, I don't think these races will quiet the revolt against him.  The chances of a contested convention with a new candidate entering in May or June have gone up significantly this past week.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Saintly Rick

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I think Romney.  Santorum's momentum will die off beforehand, and Romney's got the money.

[Eraserhead]

I have a feeling this lopsided poll will be a blemish upon the Atlas Forum's collective prediction record.

[© tweed]

I have a feeling this lopsided poll will be a blemish upon the Atlas Forum's collective prediction record.

not for us brilliant Long Island kids.

[TomC]

I kind of think the powers that be are not going to allow Romney to lose this one. Don't think he's making the right attacks on Santorum, though, and I suspect there could be a small contingent of Democrats voting for Santorum that could make a difference if close.

[NHI]

After tonight we'll know better, but I'm going with Romney.

[Whacker77]

Sadly, it looks like Romney may come back and win.  Once again, he'll have used his money to bring down another weak opponent with negative advertising.  Romney may win the battle, but there's almost no chance now he will win the war.

It's very difficult to think of a time when a presidential candidate had this much trouble winning over the base and still went on to win the general election.  Someone tried to make the point Eisenhower did, but he was drafted into the race by the goodwill of the party.  He was a war hero, something Mitt isn't.

It remains to be seen how a possible Michigan win will affect Romney in the Super Tuesday states.  Santorum has some big, big leads in Ohio, Oklahoma and other places.  If Romney just narrowly wins Michigan, I'm not so sure that changes the momentum on Super Tuesday.

What happens if Super Tuesday is essentially a tie?  Does it then go to Romney or to Santorum?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not voting yet. But once it approaches I'll make a county map.

[Cory]

Romney. If he doesn't he will be finished, they know this and will not relent if it means winning there.