Maine results thread.

[argentarius]

Aroostook came in on watchthevote, so now it's 48-33 Paul.

[tpfkaw]

Paulmentum!

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Paulmentum!

IIRC the last two (and largest two) counties coming in were stronger for Romney and weaker for Paul than the rest, so this should be quite a bit closer than +15% Paul

Then again, a lot of these towns have lower turnout, and Paul is beating Romney in some towns where he was creamed last time, so we'll see.

[Lief 🗽]

Do we have any idea of what percentage of the vote this represents so far? When I did a similar thing for the Nevada caucuses, in the end I only got about 10 or 15% of the total vote, but the final percentages were fairly similar.

[tpfkaw]

Yeah, unfortunately an extrapolation from Aroostook and Knox looks like a 3-5 pt Romney victory statewide, so we'll have to bank on poor turnout and/or bigger Paul gains downstate.

[argentarius]

Paulmentum!

IIRC the last two (and largest two) counties coming in were stronger for Romney and weaker for Paul than the rest, so this should be quite a bit closer than +15% Paul

Then again, a lot of these towns have lower turnout, and Paul is beating Romney in some towns where he was creamed last time, so we'll see.

York (and Cumberland, many voters there) were very good for Romney, neither were good at all in Washington county, which McCain won.

[argentarius]

Yeah, unfortunately an extrapolation from Aroostook and Knox looks like a 3-5 pt Romney victory statewide, so we'll have to bank on poor turnout and/or bigger Paul gains downstate.

It looks to me like a 2 point win, but as we saw in Nevada Paul did worse in many parts of Nevada but still increased his vote by 5%. Infact, extrapolating from Knox or Kennebec gives a Romney win, but I think pretty much every other one gives a Paul win.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Paulmentum!

IIRC the last two (and largest two) counties coming in were stronger for Romney and weaker for Paul than the rest, so this should be quite a bit closer than +15% Paul

Then again, a lot of these towns have lower turnout, and Paul is beating Romney in some towns where he was creamed last time, so we'll see.

York (and Cumberland, many voters there) were very good for Romney, neither were good at all in Washington county, which McCain won.

Well, lets compare to 2008:

http://liveweb.archive.org/http://mysite.verizon.net/mark.j.ellis/Caucus%20Tally%20Report.pdf

-Paul won Aroostook, the northernmost county, by 8 votes (48-41). According to the list, he's now leading Romney 81-26 there, which is a pretty huge change (and implies that Paul is using GOTV much better than Romney)

-Romney won Knox 144-58 (McCain 74) in 08. Right now, Paul is narrowly winning 98-96 (32 Santorum).

-Kennebec was won by Romney, 178-112 (65 McCain). Presently, its at 40-29 Paul.

so, assuming this list is mostly correct, Paul is more likely than not going to beat Romney by a mid-range to wide margin. Still, its possible the last precincts will be more pro-Romney than the rest (most of the precincts in are from the Paul friendly north), which could close things up.

[Eraserhead]

Drudge's headline is "Ron Paul weekend?", links to this story:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/10/us-usa-campaign-paul-idUSTRE8191S120120210

I really, really hope Paul wins this. If he wins here, he will definitely have a shot at grabbing some other states (Washington, Vermont, Montana, etc.) and it will really help to keep the brokered convention momentum rolling. Plus, the guy really does deserve to win something.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Paul's had gains from 2008.  I think it'll go for Paul.

[Averroës Nix]

Good that Paul supporters are keeping track of this. Now we can know for sure how many ballots have been thrown into the Penobscot.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Here's the new party platform in Maine voted in by Tea Partiers (:/) and RPers:

http://www.mainepolitics.net/sites/default/files/Maine_GOP_platform.pdf

I'm mostly ok with it except this piece of nonsense:

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[Lambsbread]

Here's the new party platform in Maine voted in by Tea Partiers (:/) and RPers:

http://www.mainepolitics.net/sites/default/files/Maine_GOP_platform.pdf

I'm mostly ok with it except this piece of nonsense:

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Don't forget this:

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But then there's this:

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And this:

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torn...

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Yeah, iffy on the marriage thing but if it's up to people in Maine, that's their call.

The other two things are very good.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

A Daily Pauler in Australia posted these numbers from Google Elections that the US cannot see yet (time-based, lol):

Romney
45.7%
5,489

Gingrich
33.5%
4,022

Paul
10.5%
1,263

Santorum
9.7%
1,165

I really, really doubt those numbers.  Gingrich? Really?  I guess we'll see what the real story is tomorrow.

[RI]

Seeing as a lot of places haven't caucused yet, I rather doubt those numbers as well. Plus, those numbers are way higher than last time. I suppose they could be using a different reporting system, but whatev.

[Mr. Morden]

A Daily Pauler in Australia posted these numbers from Google Elections that the US cannot see yet (time-based, lol):

Romney
45.7%
5,489

Gingrich
33.5%
4,022

Paul
10.5%
1,263

Santorum
9.7%
1,165

I really, really doubt those numbers.  Gingrich? Really?  I guess we'll see what the real story is tomorrow.

I'm in Australia.  Tell me the URL, and I'll let you know if it's legit.

[RI]

A Daily Pauler in Australia posted these numbers from Google Elections that the US cannot see yet (time-based, lol):

Romney
45.7%
5,489

Gingrich
33.5%
4,022

Paul
10.5%
1,263

Santorum
9.7%
1,165

I really, really doubt those numbers.  Gingrich? Really?  I guess we'll see what the real story is tomorrow.

I'm in Australia.  Tell me the URL, and I'll let you know if it's legit.

I think you can just Google search "Google Politics" and click on results.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Here's the link: http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

[tpfkaw]

That same thing happened with IA; people on the far side of the world searching for the IA results early saw wacky placeholder results (I think they had Cain in first and Roemer in third, or something like that).

[RI]

That same thing happened with IA; people on the far side of the world searching for the IA results early saw wacky placeholder results (I think they had Cain in first and Roemer in third, or something like that).

Yeah, AP does that a lot to test their pages. Google probably gets their results from them.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the link: http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

That says:

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and there's a Google Maps picture of Maine.

[RI]

Here's an image of the placeholder results:



EDIT: I checked the AP page and they have test results up. Mystery solved.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Here's an image of the placeholder results:



EDIT: I checked the AP page and they have test results up. Mystery solved.

If the results actually turn out like this, I'll eat my own socks

[Mr. Morden]

So it looks like CNN is actually going to do election night coverage for this, combining it with a report from CPAC and coverage of the straw poll there:

http://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/10/tune-in-cnn-covers-maine-caucuses-tomorrow-6-p-m-et/