The Great Brazil Topic

[Vega]

Hopefully this whole affair can come to ahead and be done with before the Olympics start.  The worst would be for impeachment to fair through various Shanaganes  and this entire affair continue to drag out into the summer.

Yeah, whenever I bring up the games to people, they always seem to respond with the notion that Brazil is on the verge of civil war.

[Paleobrazilian]

PP's Congressmen will announce they're leaving the government base today. PP has nearly 50 Congressmen, less than 10 of them will vote against the impeachment.

Dilma's support in Congress is quickly crumbling. Despair has already settled in within the government. Today Dilma made a speech where she called Temer a "conspirator". If the impeachment side doesn't commit unforced errors until Sunday, I believe there will be 342 votes against Dilma on the House.

In the end, PP's breakup was even worse than expected for the government. The whole party decided to leave the government and to position itself in favor of the impeachment. Now, Dilma's fate will most likely be decided by around 50 Congressmen from 2 parties: PR and PSD.

[Paleobrazilian]

PSD will announce they're breaking away from the government today at 7 PM BRT. With PSD out, 342 votes for the impeachment on the House are pretty a lock.

Also, Dilma had an interview today where she said she'll be "done" if the impeachment passes the House. Maybe she's already considering resignation if impeachment proceedings against her are started by the Senate.

[Paleobrazilian]

Total despair on the government side: realizing the impeachment already has 342 votes, they're now flooding the Supreme Court with lawsuits trying to nullify the pro-impeachment report or at least delay the vote which will happen on Sunday. They're also trying to change the rules of the vote, so that Congressmen vote through the electronic system, not through microfones.

Also, the government has produced a fake list with 186 Congressmen they claim to be against the impeachment. The problem is, there are many of them who have long declared they're voting in favor of the impeachment. So, this will also backfire.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Number of lawmakers who would vote for the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff rises to 340, according to O Estado de S.Paulo survey.
127 lawmakers would vote against impeachment
29 declined to answer how they’d vote, while 17 said they are undecided
NOTE: O Estado de S.Paulo is surveying all 513 lawmakers from Brazil lower house, updating their positions continuously
342 votes needed to approve impeachment in lower house

[Paleobrazilian]

(Bloomberg) -- Number of lawmakers who would vote for the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff rises to 340, according to O Estado de S.Paulo survey.
127 lawmakers would vote against impeachment
29 declined to answer how they’d vote, while 17 said they are undecided
NOTE: O Estado de S.Paulo is surveying all 513 lawmakers from Brazil lower house, updating their positions continuously
342 votes needed to approve impeachment in lower house

According to O Globo, there are already 342 Congressmen who will vote to impeach Dilma. Estado de São Paulo gives the impeachment at least 340 votes, Veja counts at least 338 votes. Folha de Sâo Paulo scores at least 337 votes. Plus, all sources already count at least 41 votes against Dilma on the Senate, which would be enough to start the process on the Senate and automatically suspend Dilma from office for up to 180 days.

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/especial/2015/brasil-em-crise/votacao-impeachment/camara/
http://infograficos.estadao.com.br/politica/placar-do-impeachment/
http://infograficos.oglobo.globo.com/brasil/o-placar-do-impeachment.html
http://veja.abril.com.br/complemento/brasil/o-voto-de-cada-deputado-no-impeachment/

[jaichind]

April 15 (AFP) -- Brazil Supreme Court majority rejects move to stop impeachment

[DanPrazeres]

We have our Wall

The left/north side is for the the people pro government and the right/south is for the anti-government.

[DanPrazeres]

And the government is reversing some votes. Temer went to São Paulo yesterday and would be there until tomorrow to watch the votation there, today morning he came back to Brasília to negotiate more.

[jaichind]

With all this talk of curruption on both sides it is ironic the situition of vote being this close opens up more chances of bribiary and vote buying.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg) -- Number of lawmakers who would vote for impeachment fell to 340 from 342 earlier, according to Folha de S.Paulo survey.
Lower house deputy chief Waldir Maranhao announced he would change his vote and be against impeachment
Lawmaker Clarissa Garotinho requested maternity leave and won’t vote
Link to story
Number of pro-impeachment votes also fell in Estado survey, to 344, and in O Globo, to 342

[Paleobrazilian]

Bloomberg) -- Number of lawmakers who would vote for impeachment fell to 340 from 342 earlier, according to Folha de S.Paulo survey.
Lower house deputy chief Waldir Maranhao announced he would change his vote and be against impeachment
Lawmaker Clarissa Garotinho requested maternity leave and won’t vote
Link to story
Number of pro-impeachment votes also fell in Estado survey, to 344, and in O Globo, to 342

The opposition has recovered the ground it lost yesterday today and most newsources count at least 347 votes for the opposition. Most opposition leaders claim they have at least 360 votes. I'd say it's likely that the impeachment will pass the House, but no done deal until the 342nd vote is cast. No one will sleep in Brasília tonight.

[DanPrazeres]

Bloomberg) -- Number of lawmakers who would vote for impeachment fell to 340 from 342 earlier, according to Folha de S.Paulo survey.
Lower house deputy chief Waldir Maranhao announced he would change his vote and be against impeachment
Lawmaker Clarissa Garotinho requested maternity leave and won’t vote
Link to story
Number of pro-impeachment votes also fell in Estado survey, to 344, and in O Globo, to 342

The opposition has recovered the ground it lost yesterday today and most newsources count at least 347 votes for the opposition. Most opposition leaders claim they have at least 360 votes. I'd say it's likely that the impeachment will pass the House, but no done deal until the 342nd vote is cast. No one will sleep in Brasília tonight.

Well, I will :lol:

The government says they have at least 181. And there is a movement "Neither Dilma neither Cunha" that will not vote as a protest. But no one knows what will really happen.

[jaichind]

Latest tallies from Folha, Estado and Globo show between 347 and 350 votes for impeachment, above the 342 needed.  Somehow I still do not believe it they will go over 342.  I still think the regime still must have a bunch of rabbits to pull out of the hat given the resources it has available to it by default of being the ruling regime.  Still plenty of time for bags of cash and last minute illnesses.

[Paleobrazilian]

The session has started. The floor is crowded, so far I don't think abstentions will be a problem.

[jaichind]

In theory this session ends at 9am or something. Any idea if they will vote now or near the end?  Also is the vote a secret ballot or not?

[Paleobrazilian]

In theory this session ends at 9am or something. Any idea if they will vote now or near the end?  Also is the vote a secret ballot or not?

Voting is expected to start around 4 PM BRT. The vote is open, on the microphone.

[Paleobrazilian]

498 Congressmen in session. Only 15 absent, 5 of them already in Congress. There's still time for some more to arrive. Only 4 Congressmen confirmed they won't show up.

[jaichind]

Any link to a live stream of the debate and eventual vote count?

[Paleobrazilian]

Any link to a live stream of the debate and eventual vote count?

http://g1.globo.com/politica/processo-de-impeachment-de-dilma/cobertura-ao-vivo.html

[Crumpets]

So they haven't actually voted yet? It looks like they're still debating.

[Paleobrazilian]

So they haven't actually voted yet? It looks like they're still debating.

The last party leader is concluding his speech. The vote is is about to start.

[jaichind]

Any surprises from the party leaders speeches? I assume all the party leader speeches just reinforces the position of said party on this topic. 

[jaichind]

Looks like they are about to start voting.

[Crumpets]

Wow. This is going to take forever.