The Great Brazil Topic

[Paleobrazilian]

I see Ciro Gomes has switched parties yet again, to the PDT. Amusingly, the same party as his Senator ex-wife. Did PROS stop existing?

No, it didn't. Ciro Gomes is the proof of why Brazil's multi-party system is broken. PDT is the seventh party of his political career. Remember, Ciro Gomes himself created PROS when he was unhappy that PSB wouldn't support Dilma's reelection. Then when the PDT offered him the possibility of running for President in 2018, he didn't think twice about making yet another switch.

By the way, here's what Ciro Gomes is up to over the last few weeks:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKCbn4aOhDw

Your comment about Brazil's "broken party system" has made me curious. Could you answer these questions:

1) How many of the parties actually have coherent ideologies? Which ones?

2) I kind of get the appeal of PMDB, but why would one vote for one of the smaller non-ideological parties? (Clientelism, individual politicians?

3) How would you (or any of the other Brazilians) change the electoral system to fix the broken system?

2- IMO, there are 4 relevant factors. One of them is definitely the individualistic nature of Brazil's politics. That's just how things work in Brazil, people don't care about ideologies, they vote for personalities. Those non ideological parties have many "mythical" figures in Brazilian politics with, unfortunately, still attract a lot of votes. Of course, this happens mostly because, as you probably imagine, Brazil still has a very large number of voters with little or no education, who tend to vote on those "mythical" figures. But that's not the only cause.

There's also the proportional system of voting for the House of Representatives, because it increases fragmentation and helps those non ideological parties, that tend to form alliances with the major parties.

Third, it's important to remember that Brazil is a three tier Federation, composed by the Federal Government, 26 State Governments, Federal District's Government and over 5000 Municipal Governments. Some parties may stand for nothing relevant on the national picture, but may have a strong presence on State and Municipal politics. One interesting example that comes to my mind is PP in Rio Grande do Sul, where PP has been the leading figure on the right side for a long while, even though PP has been a loyal partner to PT on the national level. Another interesting example are the many rebel factions of PMDB that finally got the breakup they long dreamed of today. In important states like Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul, PMDB and PT have been bitter rivals for a long while. Thus, the fact that there's no correlation between national politics and local politics mean that a smaller, non ideological party may have a strong presence on a certain state.

Finally, there's the fact that EVERYONE in Brazil wants to be in government, to benefit from the perks of being in government (specially the ones being revealed on the Petrobras scandal we're witnessing right now). Non ideological parties are excellent for politicians that only want a big tent to be in government. As you see, Brazilian politicians care more about benefiting from the government than about any sort of ideology. It's just sad.

3- There are many reforms I'd like to see. Here are them:

a) The most important one for me is the creation of a performance clause like the one used by Germany's Bundestag. Unfortunately in 2006 the Supreme Court decided that a performance clause created a few years earlier violated the Constitution - it's widely considered one of the worst decisions the Supreme Court has ever made. If a new performance clause were approved by Congress today, I think the Supreme Court would uphold its constitutionality, but you never know.

b) On elections, local alliances should be the same as of national alliances. The fact that local alliances can be different from national ones causes fragmentation and take cohesion out of the system.

c) End the proportional system to elect Congressman. I'm in favor of a purely district system like the one used in the UK, but wouldn't be opposed to a system that combines district voting to proportional voting like the one from Germany.

d) Adopt a truly proportional division of Federal Congressmen between states. Under Brazil's Constitution, there's a floor of 8 Congressmen and a roof of 70 Congressmen a State can have. This leads to an aberration where a tiny State like Roraima has one Congressmen for each 60 thousand people, while in State with a large population like São Paulo there's one Congressmen for each 600 thousand people. Due to this rule, there's a significant democracy gap on the largest states, which are significantly underrepresented in the House of Representatives.

e) Force Legislators to resign their seats if they take an office on the Executive. It's common in Brazil the appointment of Legislators to cabinet positions in order to build political support among his peers. With those reforms, I think this problem would disappear, as no Legislator would make such a move unless he were appointed to a top cabinet position.

f) Term limits for Legislators. Plus, harder term limits for the Executive (limit politicians to 2 terms, absolute).

[DanPrazeres]

3- There are many reforms I'd like to see. Here are them:

a) The most important one for me is the creation of a performance clause like the one used by Germany's Bundestag. Unfortunately in 2006 the Supreme Court decided that a performance clause created a few years earlier violated the Constitution - it's widely considered one of the worst decisions the Supreme Court has ever made. If a new performance clause were approved by Congress today, I think the Supreme Court would uphold its constitutionality, but you never know.

b) On elections, local alliances should be the same as of national alliances. The fact that local alliances can be different from national ones causes fragmentation and take cohesion out of the system.

c) End the proportional system to elect Congressman. I'm in favor of a purely district system like the one used in the UK, but wouldn't be opposed to a system that combines district voting to proportional voting like the one from Germany.

d) Adopt a truly proportional division of Federal Congressmen between states. Under Brazil's Constitution, there's a ceiling of 8 Congressmen and a roof of 70 Congressmen a State can have. This leads to an aberration where a tiny State like Roraima has one Congressmen for each 60 thousand people, while in State with a large population like São Paulo there's one Congressmen for each 600 thousand people. Due to this rule, there's a significant democracy gap on the largest states, which are significantly underrepresented in the House of Representatives.

e) Force Legislators to resign their seats if they take an office on the Executive. It's common in Brazil the appointment of Legislators to cabinet positions in order to build political support among his peers. With those reforms, I think this problem would disappear, as no Legislator would make such a move unless he were appointed to a top cabinet position.

f) Term limits for Legislators. Plus, harder term limits for the Executive (limit politicians to 2 terms, absolute).

I agree with e and f.

I think:
a) Performance clause will limit the Congress to a few parties, the same big parties that not represent the people. To reduce the numbers of parties things like television time and party fund shoul be revised
b) aliances in proportional system should be banned, IMO
c) districtal vote in Brasil will be very complicated because of the question of the indivualism thing
d) São Paulo will pratically run the country, and historically it didn't work

So

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It has a lot of diferent thousands of views, but the people who can change the system (congresmen) uses only one: how they will maintain their power. Unhappily, a lot of them are oporttunists about it. In times of crisis, per example, they say things about parlamentarism or ends reelection for executive.

[Paleobrazilian]

According to rumors the impeachment vote on the floor of the House will take 3 days. There'll be long speeches and party leaders could have up to 1 hour to make their orientations. The final day of voting will probably be April 17th, as I said earlier. It's believed that Congressmen will be called to vote on an order that starts with Congressmen from Southern Brazil and ends with Congressmen from Northern Brazil. This is yet another strategy used by Eduardo Cunha to make things harder for Dilma - in States from the South and the Southeast a vast majority of Congressmen will vote for the impeachment. This would create a wave feeling that would make voting against the impeachment tough for Congressmen voting later.

[Paleobrazilian]

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So what happens if not only Dilma, but also Temer and Cunha are done for corruption?

[Paleobrazilian]

So what happens if not only Dilma, but also Temer and Cunha are done for corruption?

If both Dilma and Temer fall, then the President of the House would provisionally take office until the special election is arranged (if they both fall before January 1st, 2017, it's a direct election, if this happens on January 1st, 2017 or later, it's an indirect election on an unicameral session of Congress). However, if the President of the House cannot take office, then the provisional President would be the 4th name on the line of succession, which is the President of the Senate, Renan Calheiros (PMDB/AL). The problem is that Calheiros is also involved with tons of corruption scandals and there's a big chance that he wouldn't be able to take office as well. Then the next in line would be the President of the Supreme Court. Right now it's Minister Ricardo Lewandowski (in Brazil, Supreme Court judges are called Ministers), but in September his 2 year term ends and Minister Carmen Lúcia will be elected as the new President of the Court by her peers (there's a long time tradition on Brazil's Supreme Court that the Ministers elect as their President the Minister who has served the longest time without being President).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But lets be honest for a moment: all Brazilian politicians are on the take. Still you almost have to admire quite how catastrophically Dilma has handled this.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Was it a tactical error for Moro to go after Lula by releasing that audio transcript?

[Ebsy]

Was it a tactical error for Moro to go after Lula by releasing that audio transcript?

It certainly made the investigation appear more blatantly partisan, but I think it is too soon to say if it was an error.

[Paleobrazilian]

Poor Dilma. The Government was celebrating that the last 2 days were a little bit better for them and that their chances of blocking the impeachment were growing. But guess what: today, on a new plot twist, the Petrobras investigation has uncovered the link between PT and the murder of Celso Daniel, the biggest Pandora Box of Brazil's politics. Ouch.

BTW, the investigation has also shown how the Petrobras scandal and the Mensalão scandal were pretty much the same thing. This could be the Armageddon for PT.

[DanPrazeres]

Was it a tactical error for Moro to go after Lula by releasing that audio transcript?

It certainly made the investigation appear more blatantly partisan, but I think it is too soon to say if it was an error.

He had to apologize. And Supreme Court ministers didn't like his attitude, as seen in yesterday's judgement about whom is responsible for Lula's process (that stayed in Supreme Court).

[Paleobrazilian]

The government will present its defense on the impeachment commission today. Tomorrow, the rapporteur of the impeachment commission will present his report - which will likely be in favor of the impeachment. The non-binding report will probably be voted by the commission next Monday, where it'll likely be approved by a wide margin.

[Paleobrazilian]

Supreme Court Minister Marco Aurelio Mello has granted an injunction that will force the House to open impeachment proceedings against Michel Temer. I believe this injunction will be revoked in a few weeks when the whole Court will make its definitive ruling on the matter, but at least for now there are 2 impeachment proceedings going on: one against Dilma and one against Temer.

According to the rapporteur of Dilma's impeachment commission, his opinion will be presented to the commission tomorrow. Then the document will be discussed by the commission for 2 days, and after the discussion the commission will vote on it (likely next Monday). It's expected that the report will be in favor of Dilma's impeachment and that it'll easily pass the commission, submitting the matter to the floor of the House, where it'll probably be discussed on April 15th and 16th, and finally voted by the Congressmen on April 17th.

Dilma's/PT's strategy for the last few days has been what has been dubbed the "retail" method instead of the traditional "wholesale" method usually used in Brazil's politics. Thus, instead of negotiating with the parties, Dilma and PT are negotiating directly with undecided Congressmen (there are about 100-120 of them right now). The offers being made to them are unbelievably generous, including up to 1 million reais in pork barrel for each Congressman that votes against the impeachment and full control of powerful Ministries (such as Education, Health, Agriculture, etc) and State owned companies and banks. It's no surprise that some of them are now leaning against the impeachment. The offer they're getting is enormous and many of those Congressmen are irrelevant backbenchers (jokingly called "lower clergy" here in Brazil), who now have the chance of their life to get power and good$$$ from the federal government. As you can see, the only chance Dilma has to survive the impeachment proceedings against her is making the system even more corrupt than it already is.

The strategy of the opposition, meanwhile, has been to expose those against the impeachment on public places and social networks. Also, Congressmen from the opposition are threatening Congressmen implicated on the Petrobras scandal that vote against the impeachment with proceedings on the House ethics committee. It's important to remember that the party being most heavily courted by Dilma, PP, is by far the most implicated on the Petrobras scandal. PP has 50 Congressmen and over 30 of them have been hit by the scandal. If proceedings against them are opened on the ethics committee, I believe many of them would be ejected from the House. As you can see, the battle will get uglier and uglier each passing day.

[Paleobrazilian]

Things are getting absurd here in Brazil. Eduardo Cunha has said he will NOT obey the decision of Minister of Marco Aurelio Mello, because, according to him, the decision violates the separation of Powers and determines something the Constitution doesn't allow (impeachment proceedings against the Vice President). While I think he's correct on both points and that those arguments will soon prevail when the whole Supreme Court decides on the matter, it shows how fragile our institutions are right now when the Legislative and the Judiciary come at war about the impeachment of the second highest authority of the Executive.

Meanwhile, many legislators from both sides of the aisle have been talking about calling a new general election on October (when the local elections will take place). Some have talked about an amendment to the Constitution to call an election on October. Of course, this is nonsense, as Brazil is a presidential country and the term of the Chief of the Executive branch cannot be ended through a constitutional amendment. In fact, the same could be said about the term of the Legislators - Brazil has a presidential system, no one can dissolve Brazil's Congress. Such an amendment would be quickly struck down by the Supreme Court as unconstitutional.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

That's funny:

http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/The-Man-Who-Wants-to-Impeach-Rousseff-Named-in-Panama-Papers--20160404-0025.html

[Derpist]

Such an amendment would be quickly struck down by the Supreme Court as unconstitutional.

Isn't a constitutional amendment by definition violate the current constitution? I would be pretty horrified by a Supreme Court that strikes down a constitutional amendment as unconstitutional.

[Paleobrazilian]

Such an amendment would be quickly struck down by the Supreme Court as unconstitutional.

Isn't a constitutional amendment by definition violate the current constitution? I would be pretty horrified by a Supreme Court that strikes down a constitutional amendment as unconstitutional.

I beg your pardon. There's an important detail that I should have mentioned. Brazil's Constitution has a system of eternity clauses similar to the one adopted by Germany's Basic Law. There are four fundamental principles of Brazil's Constitution that cannot be changed even through a constitutional amendment. One of them includes the basic principles of Brazil's electoral system.

[DanPrazeres]

That's funny:

http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/The-Man-Who-Wants-to-Impeach-Rousseff-Named-in-Panama-Papers--20160404-0025.html

Well, he is in almost every list about offshore accounts and things that envolves money in other countries.

[Paleobrazilian]

Yesterday, Congressman Jovair Arantes (PTB/GO) presented his report to the impeachment commission, where he recommended opening proceedings against Dilma on the Senate. The commission will vote his report on Monday, when it's expected to pass fairly easily. Then it'll be submitted to the floor of the House.

Over the last few days, the government seemed to gain some ground against the impeachment as offers to undecided voters got more and more aggressive. Those last 24 hours were largely unfavorable to it, though. The report presented yesterday was very tough on the government, even more than expected. Plus, today it was learned that executives from a large constructor called AG told and proved to the feds that their large donations to Dilma's campaign in 2014 were in fact generous bribes. IMO, it's now likely that the Superior Electoral Tribunal will vacate the results of the 2014 election due to this.

[DanPrazeres]

Yesterday, Congressman Jovair Arantes (PTB/GO) presented his report to the impeachment commission, where he recommended opening proceedings against Dilma on the Senate. The commission will vote his report on Monday, when it's expected to pass fairly easily. Then it'll be submitted to the floor of the House.

Over the last few days, the government seemed to gain some ground against the impeachment as offers to undecided voters got more and more aggressive. Those last 24 hours were largely unfavorable to it, though. The report presented yesterday was very tough on the government, even more than expected. Plus, today it was learned that executives from a large constructor called AG told and proved to the feds that their large donations to Dilma's campaign in 2014 were in fact generous bribes. IMO, it's now likely that the Superior Electoral Tribunal will vacate the results of the 2014 election due to this.

The new election depends on the new president of the Superior Electoral Tribunal, Gilmar Mendes, who has a quite clear alignment with the oposition and the PSDB. But as PSDB isn't the favourite in a election now (Marina Silva is), maybe it might take a time.

[buritobr]

The PMDB is planning to implement Washington Consensus policies in a Temer's administration. Probably, Armínio Fraga will be his Minister of Finance. He would be Aécio Neves' minister.
I don't think a non-elected government has legitimacy to implement these radical changes. It would be not wrong to say that this political change would look like a coup d'estat.
A government which comes to the power after a new election would have more legitimacy. If the people want Washington Consensus policies, the people will vote for a candidate that supports these policies. But, maybe, the supporters of the Washington Consensus, who are endorsing the impeachment, fear that Ciro Gomes could win a direct election. That's why they are rejecting the new election.
A constitutional amendment which establishes the recall (like the one who elected Schwarznegger in California) would be a much more democratic solution for the Brazilian political crisis than the impeachment.

Besides, even the supporters of the impeachment consider that the violation of the budget law is a weak legal argument. But they consider that the Petrobras scandal is a strong moral argument. According to they, after the scandal, PT could not hold the Palácio do Planalto anymore. But if this logic is true, Temer's PMDB and PP could not hold the Palácio do Planalto too.

[DanPrazeres]

Today it has "leaked" an audio of a Whatsapp group that is just the speech of VP Temer talking as if the impeachment already had happened.

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2016/04/1759725-temer-divulga-audio-em-que-fala-como-se-impeachment-estivesse-aprovado.shtml

What a week to be brazilian.

[Paleobrazilian]

The pro-impeachment report has easily passed the commission by a 38-27 margin. Now it'll be submitted to the floor of the House, where it'll be discussed on Friday and Saturday and voted Sunday.

Estadão has been keeping track of all Congressmen and Congresswomen, trying to predict what will happen on Sunday. According to them, there are 299 declared votes for the impeachment, 123 declared votes against the impeachment and 91 votes that are either undecided or still undeclared. 342 votes are necessary to allow the Senate to open proceedings against Dilma.

http://infograficos.estadao.com.br/politica/placar-do-impeachment/

[Paleobrazilian]

PP's Congressmen will announce they're leaving the government base today. PP has nearly 50 Congressmen, less than 10 of them will vote against the impeachment.

Dilma's support in Congress is quickly crumbling. Despair has already settled in within the government. Today Dilma made a speech where she called Temer a "conspirator". If the impeachment side doesn't commit unforced errors until Sunday, I believe there will be 342 votes against Dilma on the House.

[jaichind]

Hopefully this whole affair can come to ahead and be done with before the Olympics start.  The worst would be for impeachment to fair through various Shanaganes  and this entire affair continue to drag out into the summer.