UK General Discussion

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10055144/David-Cameron-to-rush-out-law-for-EU-vote.html

So, Dave's daring Labour and the Liberals to say no to this. Although it seems good tactics on the face of it, he's playing with fire if either Clegg or Miliband call his bluff.

And anyway, parliament can't bind its successor.

[You kip if you want to...]

Anyone seen today's PMQs with Clegg?

I'd forgotten how patronising and vacuous he is.

[afleitch]

Labour lead down to 3% with MORI. 34%-31. Seems we are in 'f-ck the lot of you' territory again.

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour lead down to 3% with MORI. 34%-31. Seems we are in 'f-ck the lot of you' territory again.

Things didn't even get this stupid at the peak of the expenses scandal.

And the Greens are on 6% which is... odd.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looks like a dodgy poll; UKIP down a tad as well, which is less than believable at present.

[You kip if you want to...]

2015 looks set to give us such an odd realignment when you consider what'll happen in cities like Sheffield, Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool with Labour and the LibDems and what'll happen down south in the Bostons and the Thanets of the country with the Tories and UKIP (or even Labour, if they can run through the middle and get some unexpected gains).

[afleitch]

2015 looks set to give us such an odd realignment when you consider what'll happen in cities like Sheffield, Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool with Labour and the LibDems and what'll happen down south in the Bostons and the Thanets of the country with the Tories and UKIP (or even Labour, if they can run through the middle and get some unexpected gains).

2015 will be like every other election. I still don't think UKIP will pick up a more than about 1 seat (if Farage is still knocking around). It'll be a Tory v Labour fight yet again. The fact that Labour can't muster runaway Blairesque leads three years into a Tory government is good news. Indeed they haven't been able to reach the dizzy midterm highs of Foot and Kinnock either.

[You kip if you want to...]

2015 looks set to give us such an odd realignment when you consider what'll happen in cities like Sheffield, Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool with Labour and the LibDems and what'll happen down south in the Bostons and the Thanets of the country with the Tories and UKIP (or even Labour, if they can run through the middle and get some unexpected gains).

2015 will be like every other election. I still don't think UKIP will pick up a more than about 1 seat (if Farage is still knocking around). It'll be a Tory v Labour fight yet again. The fact that Labour can't muster runaway Blairesque leads three years into a Tory government is good news. Indeed they haven't been able to reach the dizzy midterm highs of Foot and Kinnock either.

The Tories still need a 7-8% swing between today and the election according to Mori though, and far more compared to other pollsters.

And yeah, I'd still be stunned if UKIP hit 10% at the election.

[DC Al Fine]

2015 looks set to give us such an odd realignment when you consider what'll happen in cities like Sheffield, Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool with Labour and the LibDems and what'll happen down south in the Bostons and the Thanets of the country with the Tories and UKIP (or even Labour, if they can run through the middle and get some unexpected gains).

2015 will be like every other election. I still don't think UKIP will pick up a more than about 1 seat (if Farage is still knocking around). It'll be a Tory v Labour fight yet again. The fact that Labour can't muster runaway Blairesque leads three years into a Tory government is good news. Indeed they haven't been able to reach the dizzy midterm highs of Foot and Kinnock either.

One thing I've noticed in Canada is that conservative parties have tended to underpoll in between campaigns since about 1990. Does the same pattern exist in the UK?

[Phony Moderate]

2015 looks set to give us such an odd realignment when you consider what'll happen in cities like Sheffield, Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool with Labour and the LibDems and what'll happen down south in the Bostons and the Thanets of the country with the Tories and UKIP (or even Labour, if they can run through the middle and get some unexpected gains).

2015 will be like every other election. I still don't think UKIP will pick up a more than about 1 seat (if Farage is still knocking around). It'll be a Tory v Labour fight yet again. The fact that Labour can't muster runaway Blairesque leads three years into a Tory government is good news. Indeed they haven't been able to reach the dizzy midterm highs of Foot and Kinnock either.

One thing I've noticed in Canada is that conservative parties have tended to underpoll in between campaigns since about 1990. Does the same pattern exist in the UK?

Last time it happened was 1992 (other occasions were October 1974, 1970, 1966 and 1959). The Labour share is often overestimated (2005, 2001, 1997, 1992, 1987, October 1974, 1970, 1966, 1959) but sometimes underestimated too (2010, 1983, February 1974....and possibly 1950 and 1951 too, although I don't have the figures with me right now).

[Phony Moderate]

Still not as big as the SSM rebellion though.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22547910

[Leftbehind]

2015 looks set to give us such an odd realignment when you consider what'll happen in cities like Sheffield, Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool with Labour and the LibDems and what'll happen down south in the Bostons and the Thanets of the country with the Tories and UKIP (or even Labour, if they can run through the middle and get some unexpected gains).

2015 will be like every other election. I still don't think UKIP will pick up a more than about 1 seat (if Farage is still knocking around). It'll be a Tory v Labour fight yet again. The fact that Labour can't muster runaway Blairesque leads three years into a Tory government is good news. Indeed they haven't been able to reach the dizzy midterm highs of Foot and Kinnock either.

One thing I've noticed in Canada is that conservative parties have tended to underpoll in between campaigns since about 1990. Does the same pattern exist in the UK?

Yes, but polls account for that by various corrections. The Labour drop in the latest Ipsos-Mori is actually down to one of the measures: a very strict threshold for turnout certainty (only counting those that are 10/10, with Labour votes saying they're less likely to vote in the latest). Although even with those I think the Tories will continue to 'underpoll', as the trend for voters who are most likely to oppose them not registering/voting grows (you can already see the substantial differences in Ipsos' estimates on how the demographics voted in 2010).

[You kip if you want to...]

So the EU who-ha in parliament got 100+ rebels and now the hardliners are calling for joint UKIP/Tory tickets.

These backbenchers do need to put up or shut up though - defect or get their letters to the 1922 if they're that unhappy.

[You kip if you want to...]

Latest Tory leadership rumblings:
Gove calls himself the "heir to Blair". Sound familiar?
DPM jokes about Gove's leadership ambitions when asked about his situation with Vince.
Farage has given him his endorsement as someone he could work with in coalition and Mad-Nad has said he should be Chancellor.

This all sounds like they're at danger of finding themselves in a Romney-style 'Flavour of the Month' situation here. Last month, it was Theresa May and now that she's laid off since the budget, the Gove bandwagon's began rolling.

[Silent Hunter]

2015 looks set to give us such an odd realignment when you consider what'll happen in cities like Sheffield, Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool with Labour and the LibDems and what'll happen down south in the Bostons and the Thanets of the country with the Tories and UKIP (or even Labour, if they can run through the middle and get some unexpected gains).

2015 will be like every other election. I still don't think UKIP will pick up a more than about 1 seat (if Farage is still knocking around). It'll be a Tory v Labour fight yet again. The fact that Labour can't muster runaway Blairesque leads three years into a Tory government is good news. Indeed they haven't been able to reach the dizzy midterm highs of Foot and Kinnock either.

It's not a Tory government, it's a Tory-Lib Dem government... we're in uncharted territory here.

[Leftbehind]

No time for gay marriage, but seemingly endless time to devote to a charade on a EU referendum.

[You kip if you want to...]

No time for gay marriage, but seemingly endless time to devote to a charade on a EU referendum.

No time for anything that matters. "It's the economy, stew pots."

[afleitch]

Mwahaha!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2325679/Nigel-Farage-bundled-police-van-barricaded-inside-pub-going-promote-Scottish-election-candidate.html

[You kip if you want to...]

Mwahaha!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2325679/Nigel-Farage-bundled-police-van-barricaded-inside-pub-going-promote-Scottish-election-candidate.html

God bless Scotland.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Mwahaha!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2325679/Nigel-Farage-bundled-police-van-barricaded-inside-pub-going-promote-Scottish-election-candidate.html

God bless Scotland.

I thought it was England who had the hooligans, not the Scots.  Or is that only in football since there isn't anything to get excited about in Socttish football.

[You kip if you want to...]

Mwahaha!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2325679/Nigel-Farage-bundled-police-van-barricaded-inside-pub-going-promote-Scottish-election-candidate.html

God bless Scotland.

I thought it was England who had the hooligans, not the Scots.  Or is that only in football since there isn't anything to get excited about in Socttish football.

Not so much that as this being what happens when you declare yourself the Heir to Thatcher, and then go north of the border.

[Leftbehind]

I thought it was England who had the hooligans, not the Scots.  Or is that only in football since there isn't anything to get excited about in Socttish football.

How did you manage to come away with the idea that Scotland was immune to hooliganism?

[afleitch]

So Nigel has now called the protestors ‘fascist scum’ and said "If this is the face of Scottish nationalism, it's a pretty ugly nation." Not exactly a way to further endear himself and UKIP to the Scottish people.

[politicus]

"UKIP candidate Otto Inglis".

So their candidate is called English and has a German first name...

Apart from having a silly name he sounds like a complete idiot:

"There is a cultural struggle between on the one hand libertarians & conservatives and on the other the Frankfurt school Marxist left, which in the name of equality is intent on erasing everything that went before".

LOL

[bore]

Mwahaha!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2325679/Nigel-Farage-bundled-police-van-barricaded-inside-pub-going-promote-Scottish-election-candidate.html

God bless Scotland.

I thought it was England who had the hooligans, not the Scots.  Or is that only in football since there isn't anything to get excited about in Socttish football.

Scottish football is probably worse when it comes to fans, mainly due to the healthy combination of sectarianism and alcohol.

http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/11787/8682649/Police-investigate-after-three-fans-arrested-at-Rangers-v-Celtic-youth-cup-final
http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/dundee/the-atmosphere-was-frightening-celtic-apologise-for-fans-behaviour-at-dens-1.62792