UK General Discussion

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously the main news story of the day is the death of Sir Patrick Moore.

[Silent Hunter]

Obviously the main news story of the day is the death of Sir Patrick Moore.

Indeed - a superb astronomer.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Obviously the main news story of the day is the death of Sir Patrick Moore.

RIP.

The last two days I've been without internet so this is the first I've heard of it. Bizarrely I remember thinking about him on Saturday and wondering if he was still alive... now I know.

[k-onmmunist]

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/12/10/gay-marriage-john-major-move-on-and-accept_n_2269622.html

John Major endorses gay marriage.

[You kip if you want to...]

So, er... This just happened.



Labour's lead over the Tories being higher than the Tory's over UKIP. UKIP doubling the LD vote. To take comfort, remember that TNS aren't that good of a pollster.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Er... lol. Anyways, why on earth is a Marches football club conducting political opinion polls?

[bore]

If these polls hold up (which I doubt), its going to be impossible to ban Farage from the leaders debates, which should be fun.

[You kip if you want to...]

Er... lol. Anyways, why on earth is a Marches football club conducting political opinion polls?

In 2010, they got 33-27-29. Says it all.

[Phony Moderate]

If these polls hold up (which I doubt), its going to be impossible to ban Farage from the leaders debates, which should be fun.

Day after the first debate....

Labour - 39%
UKIP - 37%
Conservatives - 15%
Lib Dems - -5767488599%

[You kip if you want to...]

If these polls hold up (which I doubt), its going to be impossible to ban Farage from the leaders debates, which should be fun.

It won't be impossible, just very difficult. The vast majority of voters still wouldn't know who he was if they fell over him on the street.

[Phony Moderate]

Canada 1993 2.0 here we come?

[Leftbehind]

That would actually have the combined Right more than Labour (even omitting the support for an increasingly FDP-type Liberals). Although it's difficult to look at those figures without a sense of pleasure, given it'd a) ensure a Labour landslide and b) a fracturing of the Right offers the possibility of a more ambitious Left and even a desire for PR arising in the Right.

[YL]

If these polls hold up (which I doubt), its going to be impossible to ban Farage from the leaders debates, which should be fun.

It seems as if Cameron doesn't want as many debates next time anyway.

I think high UKIP shares (though 16% is surely an outlier) could last until fairly close to the election, but I still assume (as I think most do) that a lot of people currently saying they'll vote UKIP will shift back to where they came from (so in many cases the Tories) in the end.  The other question is how robust the Lib Dem to Lab shift is going to be.

[Insula Dei]

Obviously the main news story of the day is the death of Sir Patrick Moore.

RIP.

The last two days I've been without internet so this is the first I've heard of it. Bizarrely I remember thinking about him on Saturday and wondering if he was still alive... now I know.

It's funny you should say that (well, 'funny'), since it was only this Saturday that I last saw Moore at work in The Sky At Night and spend quite a bit of time thinking 'Wow, Patrick Moore is really in a bad way these days.'

[k-onmmunist]

it's easy to indicate ukip in a poll, but when push comes to shove, most of them are going to vote tory. the best ukip can do is act as a pressure group on the other parties towards europe, something i hope they're successful in.

[You kip if you want to...]

Which seats could UKIP have a realistic chance in 2015 anyway?

Maybe win with 25% in some 4-way marginal in the South-West?

[minionofmidas]

it's easy to indicate ukip in a poll, but when push comes to shove, most of them are going to vote tory.

On election day, they'll have the choice between their community MP and random Joe Blow (UKIP). That will affect a lot of people's choices.

[k-onmmunist]

Which seats could UKIP have a realistic chance in 2015 anyway?

Maybe win with 25% in some 4-way marginal in the South-West?

0 seats. at most they'll do damage to the tories by drawing their votes away.

[bore]

I'd assume their best chance would be wherever Farage is standing.

[k-onmmunist]

I'd assume their best chance would be wherever Farage is standing.

farage has a credibility that other members of the party don't. one of my friends who claims to be a moderate tory pointed out that farage is popular for his libertarian image and his general anti-government pro-populist approach, but the party as a whole isn't like that - you have idiots like helmer and mckenzie who make extremely homophobic comments and make ukip look like tories on crack.

there's also the fact that ukip's popularity is mainly hinged on them maintaining a one issue style type of politics, which becomes increasingly difficult as you become a larger party. many ukip policies, such as the flat tax, would be deeply unpopular with the public. but the image of ukip is one of a party which is determined to fight european centralization, and it's that which wins them votes.

[You kip if you want to...]

Didn't David Cameron call Gordon Brown all kinds when he nearly didn't do the debates last time round?

[YL]

Just for comparison with the TNS poll, today's Yougov is Lab 42 Con 33 LD 10 UKIP 8, which seems much more plausible, and is fairly typical of recent Yougov polls.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lots of census statistics out today. Obviously attention is on those specific sets that are least useful (except for statistical wank purposes), but there's some genuinely fascinating stuff about about housing and the like. The Welsh language stats are out as well and are mildly depressing.

[DC Al Fine]

Canada 1993 2.0 here we come?

IIRC the Reform party was polling around 8-10% until the election campaign began. Then a horrendous Progressive Conservative campaign* allowed them to shoot up to 19%. I could see this happening in Britain if UKIP avoids gaffes and the Cameron campaign stinks up the joint.

* Here's two examples of how bad the PC campaign was:
1) The PC leader said "An election is no time to discuss important issues"
2) The PC's ran ads with closeups of the Liberal leader's deformed face with voice overs saying "This doesn't look like a Prime Minister" and "I would be ashamed if this man was my Prime Minister"

[k-onmmunist]

i can't see canada 1993 happening here. the british are far too forgiving of bad governments.