FL PrimR: FL Chamber of Commerce: Newt and Mitt tied for first

[RI]

New Poll: Florida President by New Source on 2012-01-23

Summary:

Gingrich:	33%
Romney:	33%
Santorum:	10%
Paul:	6%
Other:	4%
Undecided:	14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[J. J.]

If accurate, it could be a shift in momentum.  Good sample size, but it isn't a major polling firm.

[Alcon]

J. J., huh?  This poll includes interviews from 1/22 and 1/23 -- it isn't newer than the other polls we have.

Polling firm is Cherry Communications (?), and the poll is of registered voters, which probably helps Romney.

The cynic in me thinks the Chamber of Commerce may not be entirely uninvested in the outcome of this race.

Otherwise, not much to say.  I think Gingrich is still a modest favorite.

[J. J.]

J. J., huh?  This poll includes interviews from 1/22 and 1/23 -- it isn't newer than the other polls we have.

Immediately after the primary and after what was a good Gingrich week.

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I did note that it was not a major company; they might be great, but I'd still suspect the results.  If it were PPP or Rasmussen, it would be bad news for Gingrich.

[Alcon]

J. J., huh?  This poll includes interviews from 1/22 and 1/23 -- it isn't newer than the other polls we have.

Immediately after the primary and after what was a good Gingrich week.

Which still doesn't make sense, because:

1. That was when the momentum happened, so you must mean it would be a sign there was less momentum, not that momentum had changed.  Even if this poll is right about 1/22 and 1/23 and the others are wrong, it's not a sign that Gingrich's momentum has turned around...just that it has been lesser than other polls show it as.

2. Other polls show differently for the same days.

[J. J.]

J. J., huh?  This poll includes interviews from 1/22 and 1/23 -- it isn't newer than the other polls we have.

Immediately after the primary and after what was a good Gingrich week.

Which still doesn't make sense, because:

1. That was when the momentum happened, so you must mean it would be a sign there was less momentum, not that momentum had changed.  Even if this poll is right about 1/22 and 1/23 and the others are wrong, it's not a sign that Gingrich's momentum has turned around...just that it has been lesser than other polls show it as.

Momentum in political campaigns tends to be psychological.  The more someone wins, the more supporters he gets.  I'm trying to see if that is what is happening.

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One of the others actually shows Romney up.  Their track record isn't bad, but I'd prefer Rasmussen or PPP.

[Alcon]

J. J., huh?  This poll includes interviews from 1/22 and 1/23 -- it isn't newer than the other polls we have.

Immediately after the primary and after what was a good Gingrich week.

Which still doesn't make sense, because:

1. That was when the momentum happened, so you must mean it would be a sign there was less momentum, not that momentum had changed.  Even if this poll is right about 1/22 and 1/23 and the others are wrong, it's not a sign that Gingrich's momentum has turned around...just that it has been lesser than other polls show it as.

Momentum in political campaigns tends to be psychological.  The more someone wins, the more supporters he gets.  I'm trying to see if that is what is happening.

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One of the others actually shows Romney up.  Their track record isn't bad, but I'd prefer Rasmussen or PPP.

I understand that momentum is influenced by psychology, but that only makes sense if these polls influence subsequent momentum -- you said "It could be a shift in momentum," not "it could cause a shift in momentum."  But as always, you are a silly man.

[J. J.]

J. J., huh?  This poll includes interviews from 1/22 and 1/23 -- it isn't newer than the other polls we have.

Immediately after the primary and after what was a good Gingrich week.

Which still doesn't make sense, because:

1. That was when the momentum happened, so you must mean it would be a sign there was less momentum, not that momentum had changed.  Even if this poll is right about 1/22 and 1/23 and the others are wrong, it's not a sign that Gingrich's momentum has turned around...just that it has been lesser than other polls show it as.

Momentum in political campaigns tends to be psychological.  The more someone wins, the more supporters he gets.  I'm trying to see if that is what is happening.

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One of the others actually shows Romney up.  Their track record isn't bad, but I'd prefer Rasmussen or PPP.

I understand that momentum is influenced by psychology, but that only makes sense if these polls influence subsequent momentum -- you said "It could be a shift in momentum," not "it could cause a shift in momentum."  But as always, you are a silly man.

You seem to understand very little.  The momentum came from the SC victory.  Is it starting to shift away from Gingrich?

We have two polls out there that could show it, but they are not great polls.

[Alcon]

...except all of these polls were conducted on the same two days, and we don't really have much of any Florida polling before that, so you have nothing to compare to in order to ascertain momentum, besides national polls, and that doesn't appear to me what you're doing.

[Eraserhead]

J.J. is it really that hard to admit you made a misstatement. Christ, man. How many times does he have to explain this to you?

[J. J.]

J.J. is it really that hard to admit you made a misstatement. Christ, man. How many times does he have to explain this to you?

I seem to have been correct, though we'll find out Tuesday.

[Alcon]

J.J. is it really that hard to admit you made a misstatement. Christ, man. How many times does he have to explain this to you?

I seem to have been correct, though we'll find out Tuesday.

...except your interpretation of the polls, even if Romney ended up having momentum, made no damn sense.