How does GOP establishment respond if Newt wins SC?!

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the NRO article. That's just the pure math. All the good staff and donors are picked over, not enough time to organize write-ins in various states, etc. Before anyone says "Murkowski": incumbent running in a small state with 100% name ID, fundraising, organization, etc.


http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/288342/write-bid-almost-was-jim-geraghty

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Dial 911 to do what???  It'll either be Romney or Gingrich (and it'll be Romney), so just let it play out...

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Dial 911 to do what???  It'll either be Romney or Gingrich (and it'll be Romney), so just let it play out...

I don't think the GOP establishment could stomach the thought of Newt winning.  And if Newt wins SC&FL, then you have a full fledged civil war within the GOP being played out in public:  the Tea Party vs. the establishment, with the establishment having everything to lose and the Tea Party having nothing to lose.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

It's a battle of two fatally flawed candidates if it comes down to Romney and Gingrich.

[Yelnoc]

Paul Ryan

Are you sure you want to roll the dice with the House Budget Committee Chairman?  Maybe picking someone who is term limited or who is not running for reelection this year would make more sense.  Someone like John Hoeven or Mitch Daniels.

[bgwah]

John Hoeven is an ex-Democrat who ran a state bank and only switched parties to get elected. Would the GOP base accept that?

[Torie]

If Newt draws close to Mittens in Florida in the polls, I suspect the GOP establish will start to lash out at Newt big time. Newt terrifies them.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Paul Ryan

Are you sure you want to roll the dice with the House Budget Committee Chairman?  Maybe picking someone who is term limited or who is not running for reelection this year would make more sense.  Someone like John Hoeven or Mitch Daniels.

Mitch Daniels would bleed more support away from Mitt than Newt.  And Hoeven is too unknown (heck, I don't even know that much about him).

If a write-in candidate is going to work, he was to be able to cripple BOTH Mitt and Newt, thus making peace between the establishment and the base.  Paul Ryan could do that.

[Yelnoc]

John Hoeven is an ex-Democrat who ran a state bank and only switched parties to get elected. Would the GOP base accept that?

All the GOP would be looking for in a compromise candidate is a nice face and a clean slate.  A long primary battle will have people turning to Hoeven out of voter fatigue without reading up about him.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

John Hoeven is an ex-Democrat who ran a state bank and only switched parties to get elected. Would the GOP base accept that?

All the GOP would be looking for in a compromise candidate is a nice face and a clean slate.  A long primary battle will have people turning to Hoeven out of voter fatigue without reading up about him.

Ah....NO!

[Torie]

This write in fantasy thing of yours jmfcst is just one of your most "out there" ones of your rather ample repertoire of such kind sir. The world that you want is just so cruelly often not the world that you get is it?  

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

If Newt draws close to Mittens in Florida in the polls, I suspect the GOP establish will start to lash out at Newt big time. Newt terrifies them.

what else could they throw at him?...hell, his ex-wife couldn't even dent him

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

This write in fantasy thing of yours jmfcst is just one of your most "out there" ones of our rather ample repertoire of such kind sir. The world that you want is just so cruelly often not the world that you get is it?  

I'm just doing my part to save the Party, Torie. 

[ajc0918]

I'm a registered republican in Florida, but I'm voting for Obama regardless of who the republican nominee is... who should I vote for?

[Torie]

If Newt draws close to Mittens in Florida in the polls, I suspect the GOP establish will start to lash out at Newt big time. Newt terrifies them.

what else could they throw at him?...hell, his ex-wife couldn't even dent him

Just chat up anecdotally just how much of a loose cannon and poor manager that he is for starters. And someone should get up banners attached to planes to fly over the Fruited Plain showing those national polls that Newt has a 30 point deficit in his favorability rating, something like 30% favorable, 60% unfavorable - by far the worst of any candidate. That in particular is why they are so terrified of him. He could pull down a lot of Pub candidates with him this year if he secures the nomination.

[Insula Dei]

I'm a registered republican in Florida, but I'm voting for Obama regardless of who the republican nominee is... who should I vote for?

Newt

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Just chat up anecdotally just how much of a loose cannon and poor manager that he is for starters. And someone should get up banners attached to planes to fly over the Fruited Plain showing those national polls that Newt has a 30 point deficit in his favorability rating, something like 30% favorable, 60% unfavorable - by far the worst of any candidate. That in particular is why they are so terrified of him. He could pull down a lot of Pub candidates with him this year if he secures the nomination.

The Tea Party's No. 1 target is the GOP establishment....always has been.

[The Mikado]

I'm a registered republican in Florida, but I'm voting for Obama regardless of who the republican nominee is... who should I vote for?

Not Romney.  Given that Florida is WTA, probably Gingrich.  (If it wasn't WTA I'd suggest voting for Paul)

[Mr. Morden]

got this from Rasmussen:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_rhodes_cook/2012_republican_race_the_field_may_not_be_closed

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granted, only a very few could pull this off.  Paul Ryan is one of the few who could.

It says that many of the delegates are WTA, but that means WTA by congressional district.  Only a couple of states (the biggest being New Jersey) are still WTA statewide.  And none of the caucuses are WTA.  So a late entrant would have an extremely tough time getting a majority of delegates without relying on other candidates dropping out and releasing their own delegates.  A late entrant would probably just increase the odds of a brokered convention.  But then I guess your response would be that the late entrant would be anointed  at the brokered convention.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

A late entrant would probably just increase the odds of a brokered convention.  But then I guess your response would be that the late entrant would be anointed  at the brokered convention.

yep

[Sam Spade]

Dial 911 to do what???  It'll either be Romney or Gingrich (and it'll be Romney), so just let it play out...

I don't think the GOP establishment could stomach the thought of Newt winning.  And if Newt wins SC&FL, then you have a full fledged civil war within the GOP being played out in public:  the Tea Party vs. the establishment, with the establishment having everything to lose and the Tea Party having nothing to lose.

Better have that all-out war happen now than in the 3rd year of a Romney administration.

Btw, there are plenty in the "tea party" who support Romney, so your characterization is not particularly apt.  Rather, it is the more radical tea partiers (the true believers) and the evangelicals vs. the more moderate (i.e. more Republican typically) tea partiers and the establishment types that is at play, and has always been at play. 

Basically, as Al would put it, the coming civil war is really over economic and class issues more than anything.

[Sam Spade]

One other thing - the write-in candidacy thing of yours is silly.  And so is this Paul Ryan fantasy.  He's not very effective except in close quarters situations, where he is beyond masterful.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Oh man, a brokered convention would be fantastic. Newt and Romney slog it out and Paul holds a few hundred delegates, resulting in no clear majority. Fun to think about, but unlikely to happen.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here's the NRO article. That's just the pure math. All the good staff and donors are picked over, not enough time to organize write-ins in various states, etc. Before anyone says "Murkowski": incumbent running in a small state with 100% name ID, fundraising, organization, etc.


http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/288342/write-bid-almost-was-jim-geraghty

Thing is, a late entry only needs to get enough delegates to force a floor fight and to show momentum.

[Politico]

What Lief said. If Newt doesn't get out after FL, Mittens and the Establishment will blast him out.

This.

If I were Newt, I would be hoping for a loss in South Carolina because Romney is going to figuratively kick Gingrich in the teeth if he needs to. Hopefully "the fix is in," so to speak (think Clinton in New Hampshire), because South Carolina voters should not be allowed to shame themselves by being the only state to ever give Gingrich a statewide victory in an election.

This ridiculous circus needs to end so Mitt Romney can engage Barack Obama in the general election campaign sooner rather than later.