How does GOP establishment respond if Newt wins SC?!

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

that would be a sure sign the Romney candidacy is tearing the GOP apart.  So, if Newt winning in SC drives home the fact Romney appears to be fatally flawed in the eyes of the GOP base, to the point where the GOP base is willing to risk losing in 2012 in order to keep from nominating Romney, does the establishment start ringing the phones of someone like Paul Ryan?!

If a Newt win in SC doesn't do it...what if Newt wins both SC and FL...then what does the establishment do?

[King]

If a Newt win in SC doesn't do it...what if Newt wins both SC and FL...then what does the establishment do?

Romney has to beat Paul in the Nevada caucuses (IMO Newt will be third there despite his momentum) or else he's screwed.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

seriously, folks...it is a revelant question.  Does the GOP establishment dump Romney and dial 911 if Newt wins SC or SC&FL?

[Mehmentum]

I don't think that anybody could jump in the race now and win.  In the hypothetical situation of a brokered convention (still a longshot in my opinion), the establishment may try to coax out a compromise candidate.

[King]

seriously, folks...it is a revelant question.  Does the GOP establishment dump Romney and dial 911 if Newt wins SC or SC&FL?

The establishment already put all the chips on the table with Mitt.  It's too late.

I don't think that anybody could jump in the race now and win.  In the hypothetical situation of a brokered convention (still a longshot in my opinion), the establishment may try to coax out a compromise candidate.

If there was ever a year for a brokered convention, it would be 2012 GOP.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I don't think that anybody could jump in the race now and win.  In the hypothetical situation of a brokered convention (still a longshot in my opinion), the establishment may try to coax out a compromise candidate.

so, you're telling me the GOP establishment is going to stick with Romney if Newt wins SC&FL?!  Doesn't the GOP establishment understand the GOP base doesn't really want Newt, but simply prefers to die with Newt than to live with Romney...and that all we want is a viable social-fiscal conservative candidate like Paul Ryan?

[Lief 🗽]

The establishment has already gotten behind Romney. If the base dares to challenge them in SC and FL, they'll only support Mitt stronger.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

The establishment already put all the chips on the table with Mitt.  It's too late.

It is not too late, SC is only the 3rd contest, and FL is only the 4th.

someone like Paul Ryan could win in the South and elsewhere.

The GOP establishment is, once again, underestimating the Tea Party's hatred of the GOP establishment.  And if the GOP establishment thinks they can play chicken with the Tea Party with Romney, they need to understand the Tea Party doesn't believe it has anything to lose.

Even though the Tea Party has a gun at the head of the GOP establishment, the Tea Party is willing to compromise with someone like Paul Ryan, and if the establishment isn't willing to compromise, then the Tea Party is willing to roll the dice with Newt.

[Mehmentum]

I don't think that anybody could jump in the race now and win.  In the hypothetical situation of a brokered convention (still a longshot in my opinion), the establishment may try to coax out a compromise candidate.

so, you're telling me the GOP establishment is going to stick with Romney if Newt wins SC&FL?!  Doesn't the GOP establishment understand the GOP base doesn't really want Newt, but simply prefers to die with Newt than to live with Romney...and that all we want is a viable social-fiscal conservative candidate like Paul Ryan?

Well, what could the establishment do?  Anybody who enters the race right now wouldn't be able to file in time for most of the primaries.  If there is something I'm missing, I'd love to hear it.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Well, what could the establishment do?  Anybody who enters the race right now wouldn't be able to file in time for most of the primaries.  If there is something I'm missing, I'd love to hear it.

what about a write-in campaign.  How many of the states allow write-ins?  A strong social-fiscal conservative with a simple name like "Paul Ryan" could work in a write-in.

[RogueBeaver]

What Lief said. If Newt doesn't get out after FL, Mittens and the Establishment will blast him out.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

What Lief said. If Newt doesn't get out after FL, Mittens and the Establishment will blast him out.

I'm not so sure.  I don't think Newt's rebound has much to do about Newt, rather I think it was to do about Mitt.  Mitt's problem isn't Newt - it's Mitt.

[LastVoter]

I thought you can't be in Super Tuesday after FL, so there would be no point calling 911 after FL, they would have to do it after SC?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I thought you can't be in Super Tuesday after FL, so there would be no point calling 911 after FL, they would have to do it after SC?

explain

[LastVoter]

I thought you can't be in Super Tuesday after FL, so there would be no point calling 911 after FL, they would have to do it after SC?

explain

Aren't there deadlines for filing to be in the primaries?

[The Mikado]

I thought you can't be in Super Tuesday after FL, so there would be no point calling 911 after FL, they would have to do it after SC?

explain

Aren't there deadlines for filing to be in the primaries?

Jmf is talking a write-in effort.  As the discussions of first SC and then VA have shown, many states don't even allow write-ins.

[TheGlobalizer]

IMO, we're rapidly approaching the event horizon where the establishment would actually support Ron Paul over a late entrant.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

that's why I'm talking about a write-in campain.  Santorum ceases to be a factor after FL.  So, if someone enters late, the race for the GOP nom would be:

LateEntryWriteIn
Newt
Romney
Paul

..and since Paul is obviously not going to win the nomination, the choice becomes:

LateEntryWriteIn
Newt
Romney

...I think this is VERY doable, even though it is unorthodox.  And if Newt wins SC, I think there is going to be some phone calls made this SaturdayNight and Sunday.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

As the discussions of first SC and then VA have shown, many states don't even allow write-ins.

ok, that is the kind of info we need:  which states don't allow write-ins?

[RogueBeaver]

The analyses I've seen at NRO and TWS show that at most, a new entrant could win about 30-35% of the delegates, most likely resulting in a Romney coronation.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

The analyses I've seen at NRO and TWS show that at most, a new entrant could win about 30-35% of the delegates, most likely resulting in a Romney coronation.

what is that based on, how many remaining states allow write-ins?

[Lief 🗽]

The GOP is never going to allow a brokered convention. Ever. They might as well concede the general election in that case. It would be a disaster.

[The Mikado]

Well, I'm not totally sure where that info is.  Mr. Morden could probably find it.

Whaat we do know is that Late Entrant would probably be able to participate in all the Caucuses.

Would Paul Ryan even be able to run for renomination to his House seat and for the Presidency simultaneously?

[Mehmentum]

I don't think a write in campaign could win the nomination, even with establisment and some base support.  Partly because there are some states (like mine) where write ins aren't allowed.  But also because its harder for a write in candidate to get votes compared to candidates actually on the ballot.  In addition a late entrant would have to play catch up in terms of orginization and name recognition.

I imagine such an effort could gather quite a few delagates and potentially lead to or contribute to a deadlocked convention, where the write in could become the compromise candidate.

I don't see this scenario as likely, but it is possible and many unexpected things have happened already this election...

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

got this from Rasmussen:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_rhodes_cook/2012_republican_race_the_field_may_not_be_closed

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granted, only a very few could pull this off.  Paul Ryan is one of the few who could.