FL-Tarrance Group (R): Obama leads Romney by 1

[Tender Branson]

A Jan. 10-12 Tarrance Group poll (MoE +/- 4.1%) for the Everglades Foundation shows Barack Obama winning 46 percent support and Mitt Romney pulling 45 percent.

Obama is leading among independents, 44 percent to 39 percent, and among Hispanic voters, 50 percent to 41. Here's the geographic breakdown:

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/fla-poll-dead-heat-between-obama-and-romney-who-leads-i-4-corridor

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Poor Mittley is so screwed. He is so, so screwed.

[pbrower2a]

It's a statistical tie. If the election of 2012 were to boil down to one state and Florida were the only state to make a difference, then Mitt Romney would still have a chance to win as Dubya did in 2000.

The problem with that condition is that I can easily say the same of Arizona, Missouri, Ohio, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Virginia. (Basically Colorado and Nevada seem like they are slipping away from the GOP due to demographics). If Mitt Romney wins Florida by 1500 votes and either Ohio or Virginia by 7000, then President Obama wins.

Romney many ways to lose, and any loss of Florida loses the election. But I can say the same of Arizona, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, or Virginia. The Obama campaign can play a sort of political chess in which it forces the opposition to go reckless, as in 2008. 

[Skill and Chance]

A tie in FL means Obama is almost surely winning nationally.  However, be mindful of those undecideds. 

I am increasing sensing that the Obama campaign likes its odds better in NC than in FL, which is not what I expected.

[NVGonzalez]

This is one of those states that the GOP must win to stay competitive along with NC. Not good news but it's still far off.

[ajc0918]

This is surprising considering it seems like I'm seeing a Romney ad every 5 minutes.

[pbrower2a]

This is surprising considering it seems like I'm seeing a Romney ad every 5 minutes.

Republican pols may becoming a more difficult "sell" in Florida... in view of the Governor.

[Skill and Chance]

This is surprising considering it seems like I'm seeing a Romney ad every 5 minutes.

Republican pols may becoming a more difficult "sell" in Florida... in view of the Governor.

That efffect is minimal except at the very extremes.  And if it does become an issue, don't forget the GOP has McDonnell with 2/3rds approval in VA.

[pbrower2a]

This is surprising considering it seems like I'm seeing a Romney ad every 5 minutes.

Republican pols may becoming a more difficult "sell" in Florida... in view of the Governor.

That efffect is minimal except at the very extremes.  And if it does become an issue, don't forget the GOP has McDonnell with 2/3rds approval in VA.

But the Republican nominee will have to win both Florida and Virginia. A 50-50 chance in both states as "independent events" means a 25% chance of winning both states. A 80-20 chance to win one state and an 80-20 chance of losing the other means a 16% chance of winning both states. A 90-10 split in opposite directions leads to a 9% chance of winning both states.   

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This is surprising considering it seems like I'm seeing a Romney ad every 5 minutes.

Those are being targeted to Republican primary voters, rhetorically, though.

[krazen1211]

This is surprising considering it seems like I'm seeing a Romney ad every 5 minutes.

Republican pols may becoming a more difficult "sell" in Florida... in view of the Governor.

You ought to say the same concerning Democratic politicians in Illinois.

[Skill and Chance]

It should be noted that if governors do actually impact swing voters, no one side is clearly favored:

FL and OH: Really unpopular R Govs
VA and NM: Really popular R Govs
NC: Really unpopular D gov
CO: Really popular D gov

Besides, it's far more likely for the presidential race to influence a governor's race, ex. Obama pulls Inslee over the line in WA or Romney helps the Republican candidate win in NH.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

It should be noted that if governors do actually impact swing voters, no one side is clearly favored:

FL and OH: Really unpopular R Govs
VA and NM: Really popular R Govs
NC: Really unpopular D gov
CO: Really popular D gov

Besides, it's far more likely for the presidential race to influence a governor's race, ex. Obama pulls Inslee over the line in WA or Romney helps the Republican candidate win in NH.

Add MI and WI to the unpopular governors.  Over 1,000,000 signatures were submitted this week for a recall election regarding Scott Walker.  Rick Synder isn't popular either with his use and expansion of his states emergency managers law.  Although neither of these are as likely to swing the states you posted

[Skill and Chance]

It should be noted that if governors do actually impact swing voters, no one side is clearly favored:

FL and OH: Really unpopular R Govs
VA and NM: Really popular R Govs
NC: Really unpopular D gov
CO: Really popular D gov

Besides, it's far more likely for the presidential race to influence a governor's race, ex. Obama pulls Inslee over the line in WA or Romney helps the Republican candidate win in NH.

Add MI and WI to the unpopular governors.  Over 1,000,000 signatures were submitted this week for a recall election regarding Scott Walker.  Rick Synder isn't popular either with his use and expansion of his states emergency managers law.  Although neither of these are as likely to swing the states you posted

They are polling close enough to 50/50 that both sides are energized in WI and MI at the state level.  I am focusing on governors that are approx. 60/40 or better/worse in one direction.