Gaming the States, Day 2: New Hampshire

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Romney: 50
Obama: 49
Others: 1

Obama: 4
Romney: 4

[NHI]

Romney: 51%
Obama: 48%
Other: 1%

Obama: 3
Romney: 4

[Ebowed]

It's too early to be making any county predictions, but I think my biggest interest is to see if Obama will win Belknap and Carroll counties again.

As things stand I don't expect him to win Hillsborough and Rockingham counties, though he could still win the state by winning the smaller counties anyway.

[tmthforu94]

It's too early to be making any county predictions, but I think my biggest interest is to see if Obama will win Belknap and Carroll counties again.

I don't think so. I see Romney winning Belknap, Carroll, Hillsborough, Rockingham, and possibly Merrimack counties. That's just a guess.

[Ebowed]

It's too early to be making any county predictions, but I think my biggest interest is to see if Obama will win Belknap and Carroll counties again.

I don't think so. I see Romney winning Belknap, Carroll, Hillsborough, Rockingham, and possibly Merrimack counties. That's just a guess.

Well, even Gore won Merrimack, so I would find that a little surprising, but New Hampshire is incredibly volatile.  For reference, Bush won the other four in 2004, and in 2000, also picked off Coos and Sullivan.

Obviously, a lot depends on the margin of victory; as we saw in 2008, the state is homogeneous, so a theoretical Romney win of 8-10 points could give him a county sweep.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think NH will be one state that will go well into the night... at this stage.

Neither Obama or Romney will be at 50%

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Romney wins, 49-48-3.

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

It's too early to be making any county predictions, but I think my biggest interest is to see if Obama will win Belknap and Carroll counties again.

I don't think so. I see Romney winning Belknap, Carroll, Hillsborough, Rockingham, and possibly Merrimack counties. That's just a guess.

This.

[HST1948]

Romney 51-47

[redcommander]

You all seriously think New Hampshire will be close? I would think Romney will win it with a little less than 54% of the vote.

[anvi]

I really like thinking about gaming the states, but for the general election, I don't start taking poll trends seriously until late August.  For obvious reasons, I think New Hampshire falls into the category of most likely to flip for Romney in November, so it will make an important bell weather--if he is doing well in the polls there by the beginning of October, it's a good sign for his chances nationally, but if he isn't, it won't be that close of a race.  Way too early to tell.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Romney 50%
Obama 48%
Others 2%