Gaming the States, Day 1: Maine

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Resurrecting a thread from 2008, starting with Maine.

Obama: 56
Romney: 43
Others: 1

Obama: 4
Romney: 0

[Politico]

It is way too early to say much about most states that voted for Obama last time other than 5-10 of them when you consider that Obama's approval rating is about ten points lower right now than it was for Jimmy Carter in January 1980.

My prediction: Romney is no George W. Bush--and does not even have ties with Washington, let alone Bush, in the way that McCain did--so I think this "blue state America/red state America" nonsense could be coming to an abrupt end.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama wins 53-55%

[tmthforu94]

Obama wins with around 53% of the vote. Maine-01 (I think that's the right one, which ever one is more even) has a shot at voting for Romney, but Romney will have to campaign there and will likely need to win nationwide in order to win there. So it'd only be a cherry on top.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama probably breaks 60% barely.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Obama probably break 60% barely.

lol

[Lief 🗽]

Obama probably break 60% barely.

lol

You're right, my subject-verb agreement was off. Sorry about that, friend.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I'd say Obama gets anywhere from 53-56%. Not exactly a bold prediction, I know.

[President von Cat]

It is way too early to say much about most states that voted for Obama last time other than 5-10 of them when you consider that Obama's approval rating is about ten points lower right now than it was for Jimmy Carter in January 1980.

My prediction: Romney is no George W. Bush--and does not even have ties with Washington, let alone Bush, in the way that McCain did--so I think this "blue state America/red state America" nonsense could be coming to an abrupt end.

At this time in 1980, the country rallied around Carter because of the early stage of the Iran hostage crisis, which inflated Carter's numbers. Obama's approvals have been on the upswing, without a rally-the-flag effect. Thus, the swing is genuine.

Obama wins Maine with 54.5% of the vote.

PS ROMNEYBOTS GON' MITTBOT

[pbrower2a]

It is way too early to say much about most states that voted for Obama last time other than 5-10 of them when you consider that Obama's approval rating is about ten points lower right now than it was for Jimmy Carter in January 1980.

My prediction: Romney is no George W. Bush--and does not even have ties with Washington, let alone Bush, in the way that McCain did--so I think this "blue state America/red state America" nonsense could be coming to an abrupt end.

Tempting as it might be to compare Presidents Obama and Carter on the desire that President Obama fail to get re-elected like Jimmy Carter... it is also unwise. Carter got a boost in approval ratings in the wake of the hostage situation in Iran as Americans rallied behind a President that they wanted to see succeed. Carter failed.  If anything seems to be happening it is that the Republicans are becoming a pack of Mordred-like character who will hand a win by default to the President.

I am well aware that the Hard Right would like a "strong" response to Iranian threats to the US and its friends, at least as I saw someone call for a "strong" (really, belligerent) response from someone not as "weak" as President Obama by some quack on FoX News Channel. For a quick lesson on the appropriateness of belligerent responses... belligerency is a common characteristic of bar patrons. People who initiate bellicosity often end up with broken bones for fights whose causes they can't explain after the fact.

With a couple of drunks belligerency leads to a broken jaw against which someone broke some fingers. With hot-headed national leaders the consequences are far more severe. Mahmood Ahmedinedjad is one hot-head too many on the international scene.

If you want to see my earliest prediction... then for now I predict that President Obama will lose about 5% of any margin by which he won any state by more than 15%, about 4% in any state that he won by between 10% and 14% in 2008, and about 3% of the vote that he got in any state that he won by a margin of 4% or more. A 53-45 split of Maine would fit that model.  That model says that he still wins Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia. That's about all that you need to know about my model that predicts 2012.

  

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If we're talking about a close election, Obama wins Maine by 7-10 points. Romney has more appeal in the state than most GOP nominees, but it's not enough.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Shall we begin?

[HST1948]

Romney wins 51-47.

[Politico]

It is way too early to say much about most states that voted for Obama last time other than 5-10 of them when you consider that Obama's approval rating is about ten points lower right now than it was for Jimmy Carter in January 1980.

My prediction: Romney is no George W. Bush--and does not even have ties with Washington, let alone Bush, in the way that McCain did--so I think this "blue state America/red state America" nonsense could be coming to an abrupt end.

Tempting as it might be to compare Presidents Obama and Carter on the desire that President Obama fail to get re-elected like Jimmy Carter... it is also unwise. Carter got a boost in approval ratings in the wake of the hostage situation in Iran as Americans rallied behind a President that they wanted to see succeed. Carter failed.

Fine: Obama's approval rating is about ten points lower than the approval rating of Gerald Ford in January 1976.

That better?

The writing is on the wall: Obama is faring worse than the failed presidents of the 1970s. It's impossible to say what will precisely happen between now and November, but things do not look rosy for Obama and Co.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

NH is likely to have a higher-than-average third party vote. Maybe 49-48-3 in favor of Romney in a close race?