Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,200
Political Matrix E: -1.42, S: -1.91
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« on: January 12, 2012, 04:31:59 PM » |
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This presumes that back in the 1700's, Canada is annexed by the USA.
For simplicity, we are also presuming that the current provincial borders are exactly the state borders.
This still leaves one issue outstanding, so we will lastly presume that the USA is able to run over the cultural uniqueness of Quebec like it has with all it's other areas, and thus, Quebec Nationalism is not an issue.
Here is my take:
Newfoundland, without Labrador 600K-750K I can't see the rock being much more populated for the simple fact that it is a rock. There is not much in the way of economic activity out here and there really never has been. There really is/was not much reason to move here and I can not see being a part of the US changing that. This could be altered however if the US decided to use this place for more military than I expect, or, to put area 51 here, since, who is going to trust a bunch 'o newfies?
Prince Edward Island ~200K PEI is a rural place and does not work as much else. At these populations you max out the Island in a rural manner, and I really have a hard time seeing much more people living here.
Nova Scotia 2.5M - 3M Nova Scotia, especially areas like Halifax and the Valley, would have been much more settled if NS was in the USA. The problem is geography, NS is not exactly friendly to settlement, and eventually, you'd start to run into this as a limit to population growth.
New Brunswick 2.5M-3.5M Unlike NS, NB has much more room to grow, and, I see growth being much more even. NB is one of the forestry centres of Canada, and, has lots of agriculture. I see NB's growth being even, so that a modern real life provincial electoral boundary map could apply in this alternate reality just as well.
Quebec 20M-25M Without nationalism, Quebec's infrastructure head-start would be an amazing asset. Montreal would be a bustling city that would easily be the clear and unchallenged "3rd" in a NYC-LA-Montreal trifecta of large american cities. Montreal would have the "old world charm" like none of these others do, and become a mecca for left-wing politics. Quebec would be "the" left-wing state, and the economic consequences of Montreal being so large would increase the population of places like NH and VT. The Bo-Wash corridor would become a Mo-Wash corridor, and Quebec itself would be much like a Texas of the left.
Ontario 18M-22M Without Quebec collapsing, Ontario would have a more difficult time overtaking it. Toronto might still be a city to rival Philly or Chicago, but it would not be as large as Montreal. In fact, comparing settlement patterns, I expect most of the additional population to be in places like Kitchener, or London, and for the North to have 3 to 4 times it's current population. Toronto, oddly, would not be much different than it is today.
Manitoba 2M-3M Winnipeg would become the big draw in Manitoba, and nearly all of the additional population would be there. I could see Winnipeg becoming a kind of city of the northern planes, and pumping out Democrats of a certain stripe that would be similar to Minnesota.
Saskatchewan 2M-2.5M The opposite of Manitoba, I see the population growth outside the major cities, with SK now having many places with over 100K people. I also see the state having the most radically divided politics, with one of the most right-wing Republican parties and one of the most left-wing Democratic parties.
Alberta 10M-15M Most of this growth would have been in the past few decades, but Alberta would be huge. With more and more oil and with business-friendly Republicans in power, Alberta would be sky-rocketing. Given the US's history with oil, I also expect the oil industry to be far more developed than in current IRL.
British Columbia 7M-11M I see growth all over the province, with both the lower mainland and inland areas benefiting. I also see many more people in the north. BC, in the end, would fit in well with states like Washington and Oregon. I also see an interstate running to Alaska - which would be uber expensive.
OTHER
Yukon 250K-500K The Yukon would have been settled far more if we had been a part of the US as evidenced by Alaska's population. I also see the two working much more closely than they do now.
NWT 100K-200K Same rationale as above really
Nunavut 75K-150K Same as above
Labrador 300K-600K I really see Labrador benefiting from the kind of settlement that the US can provide. With resources and a northern climate similar to the territories, but with much easier access, I see this as having appeal much stronger than the far north, and managing to draw a huge number of settlers. In the end, Labrador might account for 40% of the population of NL, but I also expect the two would have been separated at some point.
Now what do you think would the populations be?
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