Romney's Swing States

[Jacobtm]

It's interesting to finally have a North-Eastern Republican going against a Democrat who did pretty well in the South and South-West.

I imagine that Romney could win more votes in the North-East than McCain did, but I don't think it'll amount to much electorally besides New Hampshire. Maine's CDs seem well out of reach.

Alternatively, he'll not do too well in socially conservative areas. Republicans have really shot themselves in the foot by making ''Massachusetts" such a dirty word.

If the election is something like a 50-48 win for Obama, I'd imagine:

[Mehmentum]

You should have Pennsylvania as an option as well, I think its more likely Pennsylvania will flip than New Mexico.

[Jacobtm]

You should have Pennsylvania as an option as well, I think its more likely Pennsylvania will flip than New Mexico.

New Mexico has flipped parties in the last 3 Presidential elections. Pennsylvania hasn't gone for a Republican since Bush I.

I know Republicans constantly think they're going to win PA, but it's one of the most solidly Democratic states out there. They like to flirt with Republicans, but it's nothing but a tease.

All states listed as swing states went for both Bush and Obama. I can't imagine a state like PA that went for Gore and Kerry bailing on Obama.

[Torie]

Good job with that map putting VA in grey. All roads lead to Richmond.

[President von Cat]

Ohio will likely stay obama i will discuss why once the reps have a nominee

lol..

I agree though, that Ohio is likely to stay Obama, but by a very, very small margin.

Simply, Romney's late embrace of Kasich's reforms should do him in there. Especially once the Obama campaign airs ads that describe his support of the unpopular governor, ending with him saying "I like firing people!".

[TheGlobalizer]

NH, IN, NV, CO, FL

Not sure about NC, VA.  Need more polling/trending info.

You should have Pennsylvania as an option as well, I think its more likely Pennsylvania will flip than New Mexico.

I agree with this.  NM isn't going anywhere Republican unless Mitt softens on immigration and actually proposes a reasonable solution.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Ohio will likely stay obama i will discuss why once the reps have a nominee

lol..

I agree though, that Ohio is likely to stay Obama, but by a very, very small margin.

Simply, Romney's late embrace of Kasich's reforms should do him in there. Especially once the Obama campaign airs ads that describe his support of the unpopular governor, ending with him saying "I like firing people!".

Is there video of Romney publicly supporting S.B. 5?  That would be played over and over again

[Jacobtm]

Crazy that Indiana and NH are seen as the 2 most likely states for Romney to flip back.

Even though that's what I voted, looking at it now it seems like those two are an odd pairing.

Yet NH is odd...

[5280]

The closest swing states to watch on election night are Ohio, Colorado and Florida. Not sure how Virginia and North Carolina will play out.

[Averroës Nix]

Ohio will likely stay obama i will discuss why once the reps have a nominee

Please do this as soon as you can. I am certain that most other posters are just as enthralled with anticipation as I am.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I say Romney wins IN off the bat... the rest? I'd be somewhat nervous about FL, NC, NH, OH and CO if I were Obama.

[big bad fab]

IN surely.

FL and NH are strong candidates.

OH, CO and NC (in that order) are possible.

Unfortunately, VA seems now to be a "strong lean" for Dems. In a way, the GOP is better positioned to grasp PA.

(Iowa and NM are lost forever)

[tmthforu94]

Indiana will probably flip to Romney, as will New Hampshire. I don't think Obama will spend a huge amount of time in either state.

Florida and North Carolina are next, followed by Ohio and Virginia. Iowa's attainable, but it'll take some work, especially in getting the social conservatives out for him.

Next is Nevada, then Colorado. Romney can hold out hope that a poor economy in Nevada could help him win, but it'll be a battle against the trends there. Same with New Mexico - I could see it getting somewhat close, but Romney won't come with 5% of Obama, at least.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't think NH is gone for Obama... now the attention is off them and they aren't being harassed by GOP candidates lurking in bushes... the environment should shift a little in NH. I think it'll be a struggle for Obama, but I think giving up on it would be a mistake, unlike IN which was a fluke win in a fantastic year.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Indiana is likely out of reach unless job creation accelerates, but I haven't seen solid polling come out of there yet.

I don't think New Hampshire is a lost cause. Obama will have to work for it but it's definitely still within his grasp.

You left Arizona out of the poll. Without McCain on the ticket it could become competitive.

[Ljube]

Romney wins all McCain states plus Indiana, New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Nebraska district.

His swing states are going to be Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan.

I think he should focus on Pennsylvania. He needs Pennsylvania to win the election, because I don’t think he could win Ohio. If he cannot win either, he would need Michigan and one more, or three other states, which is unlikely.

[pbrower2a]

Ohio will likely stay obama i will discuss why once the reps have a nominee

I concur. The auto bailout will not be forgotten; the Governor is extremely unpopular; Ohio unions will be registering just about everything that has a pulse -- including the family dogs.

The only state that looks like a definite flip is now New Hampshire, if only because the Republicans have been the Only Game in Town.

[argentarius]

Ohio will likely stay obama i will discuss why once the reps have a nominee

I concur. The auto bailout will not be forgotten; the Governor is extremely unpopular; Ohio unions will be registering just about everything that has a pulse -- including the family dogs.

The only state that looks like a definite flip is now New Hampshire, if only because the Republicans have been the Only Game in Town.

Just looking back, the last 2 incumbents won NH and presumably the opponents were the only game in town back then.