Which remaining primary or caucus is Romney most likely to lose?

[Mr. Morden]

?

[Mr. Morden]

Texas and maybe Pennsylvania

I'm thinking it has to be either a primary in the Deep South or a caucus state.  Maybe South Carolina.  Maybe OK, AL, or MS (if it's 1-on-1 against one of his conservative rivals in early March).  Or a caucus state, since Paul or the more conservative candidates might do better in a low turnout caucus state.

[memphis]

Quite a few of them once the field is narrowed. The majority of GOP voters will not vote for him.

[TheGlobalizer]

Washington
Montana

[memphis]

What would be interesting is if the historical nature of the South Carolina primary stands true. No republican has won the south carolina primary and ultimately lost the nomination in thirty years. What if one of the more conservative candidates wins South Carolina and then upsets Romney for the nomination?

And how many competitive races have there been in 30 years? Sample size fail.

[Torie]

Alabama might prove a challenge for Mitt.

[RogueBeaver]

None, since everyone except Ron Paul will be out after SC. Gingrich himself said that "Romney is the likely nominee" if (when) he wins SC.

[Keystone Phil]

Texas and maybe Pennsylvania

The sad thing is that many in the establishment here are on board with Romney and sticking with him. Santorum has his haters within the party here, too. I'd just be happy to see Rick get on the ballot. Petition circulation here starts in less than two weeks.

[Lief 🗽]

Paul has a very good chance of winning at least a few of the caucus states in February and early March: Nevada, Minnesota, Colorado, Maine, Washington, Alaska, Wyoming, Idaho, Missouri, North Dakota, Kansas, and Hawaii.

[Keystone Phil]

Texas and maybe Pennsylvania

The sad thing is that many in the establishment here are on board with Romney and sticking with him. Santorum has his haters within the party here, too. I'd just be happy to see Rick get on the ballot. Petition circulation here starts in less than two weeks.

And as I say that, an article is out today about party kingmakers not supporting/disliking him - http://mobile.pennlive.com/advpenn/pm_106490/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=k7G6WDOW

[Yelnoc]

South Carolina because it's the third state and, according to polling, Santorum and Gingrich each have a chance against Romney.

Colorado and Minnesota because they are caucuses in the momentum-stopping month of February.

Washington, because it's a Caucus with a Paul history.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Washington.

If Newt or Santorum wins SC, most of the Deep Southern states after that.

[California8429]

If he loses South Carolina then I say Florida and at minimum all the southern states.

[Mr. Morden]

If he loses South Carolina then I say Florida and at minimum all the southern states.

If Romney losing Florida depends on Romney losing SC, then he's more likely to lose SC.

The way I see it, there are two possibilities:

1) Romney is going to win every remaining state, unless his momentum is blunted by losing South Carolina.  In that case, the state he's most likely to lose is South Carolina, since he needs to lose there to lose anywhere else.

2) Romney losing later states is not dependent on him losing SC, in which case he'll probably lose a state in the Deep South or a caucus state that Romney simply doesn't bother campaigning much in because he doesn't need the win there.  But that'll have to happen before all the other candidates drop out.  The model here would be Huckabee's victory in the Kansas caucuses in 2008, which he won after McCain had already been declared the de facto nominee.  (Similarly, Jerry Brown's late victories in 1992, after Clinton was declared the de facto nominee.)

[Joe Biden 2020]

If its more than Ron Paul still in the race, Oklahoma would be tough.

[RI]

Paul has a very good chance of winning at least a few of the caucus states in February and early March: Nevada, Minnesota, Colorado, Maine, Washington, Alaska, Wyoming, Idaho, Missouri, North Dakota, Kansas, and Hawaii.

A sleeper caucus Paul could win is the Louisiana caucus in two weeks.