Mitt Romney Primaried in 2016?

[So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass!]

Assuming Mittens beats Obama, I think it certain he will suffer a meaningful primary challenge(no less then 20% of Republicans supporting it) in 2016. Probably two distinct challenges actually(one by Ron Paul or his successor, and one by an arch conservative(plausibly split between several as in 2012).

The relevant question of course is the odds of a primary challenge succeeding. The primary challenges in 1968, 1976 and 1980 were all inches away from succeeding, so I don't think it can be considered impossible(especially since Mitt Romney starts of with far more dislike/distrust from Republicans then Carter/Ford/LBJ did. He'll be on probation from the get go.

Of course if the economy turns around by 2016 and/or he achieves substantial conservative reforms(say repealing Obamacare, achieving impressive entitlement reform and/or appoint conservative justices who proceed to repeal Roe v. Wade) and/or he gets a free pass due to a succesful war like GHWB did and/or the anti-Romney vote is completely fractured by multiple challengers... then he's safe.

But if the economy is still sh**t by 2016(highly likely IMO) and/or he fails to repeal Obamacare and overhaul the welfare&regulation state and/or he's seen as a failure on foreign policy and/or the anti-Romney voters manage to consolidate... then he's a dead goose to my estimation. Might even decide to not run for reelection like LBJ in 1968.

[big bad fab]

Jindal would be a well-positioned challenger.

Cantor is even more possible, as Jindal would be careful not to appear as a divider (to keep all his chances in 2020). He wouldn't be successful but would be the "good" profile for this role.

Rand Paul, to succeed his father and/or as conservative hero.