Canada General Discussion

[RogueBeaver]

If it damages all 3 parties though... I'd be curious what'd happen in provincial voting intentions if she rolled that particular dice.

Speaking of ON voting intentions, Ipsos pegs 34/3131. Among "very likely" voters 38/31/27.. Wynne's approval is 37%, leading preferred premier w/31 to Horwath's 29 and Hudak's 28. Any idea what the seat projection would look like? Tories are collapsed in the GTA w/23% to the OLP's 38% and NDP's 35%.

[RogueBeaver]

Ducasse would make sense, if he wants to do it. Recognizable candidates, fundraising, logistics, the usual. I guess a small-target strategy to start, like QS at its outset? PQ/QS/left PLQ are the targeted voters, after all.

[MaxQue]

Who would ultimately lead such a thing?

Pierre Ducasse, maybe? Isn't he the one who's taking the charge? He'd make a great leader.

Pierre Ducasse could, he finished his book presentation tour and declined to run in municipal elections in Gatineau, as some expected he would do.

[RogueBeaver]

He'd be a welcome presence in the leaders' debates IMO, and in provincial political debate generally. As it is David is the only remotely relatable leader. Will temporarily try and park my usual views on multiparty systems and minority govt, just to see how this turns out.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if he could win a riding like Hull. QS gets good numbers there, but nowhere near enough to win.

[RogueBeaver]

QS got only 8% there last year. You would need to collapse one of the major party votes, which certainly won't be easy.

[DC Al Fine]

Megan Leslie: The biggest problem facing women is this kind of crap.

[RogueBeaver]

Leslie and Chisholm say no to the provincial leadership, Stoffer uncertain but I'd guess he doesn't run either.

NDP reiterates their Keystone opposition.

[Hatman 🍁]

Who is to blame for Rob Ford? Ford Nation of course (also George Smitherman's campaign incompetence and David Miller, for not running again): http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/11/05/who-is-to-blame-for-this-mess-in-toronto/

[RogueBeaver]

Trudeau goes the full Tom Friedman on China. Then says that the questions at the fundraiser "weren't as fluffy as some were expecting." ROFLMAO.

[DC Al Fine]

Leslie and Chisholm say no to the provincial leadership, Stoffer uncertain but I'd guess he doesn't run either.

Hope Stoffer doesn't run, he's hugely popular here.

[Hatman 🍁]

No one is asking Alexa?

Stoffer would be a great choice. I'd fear we'd lose his seat in a by-election though.

[RogueBeaver]

Cullen and Simms formally decline a provincial run.

[DC Al Fine]

No one is asking Alexa?

Stoffer would be a great choice. I'd fear we'd lose his seat in a by-election though.

Alexa's 69 and wouldn't face the voters until age 73. Kind of pushing it IMO.

Stoffer's seat is a mix of blue collar suburb and rural areas; not a Liberal friendly seat. Quitting while the Tories are down in the dumps is probably the best option. Or did you mean you thought it'd be better for him to wait till 2015 to resign because Justin will be receiving more negative press?

[Hatman 🍁]

Didn't his riding just go Liberal in the provincial election? What's to say that voters wont go Liberal federally?

[DC Al Fine]

Didn't his riding just go Liberal in the provincial election? What's to say that voters wont go Liberal federally?

I suppose you're right. It's definitely a Stoffer riding, so there's a potential for it to swing hard Liberal like Timberlea-Prospect did. OTOH there's 3 ex NDP MLA's that could be candidates

[Holmes]

Senate scandal



Rob Ford scandal



Justin Trudeau China gaffe

[Hatman 🍁]

The JT China gaffe isn't getting any traction, I'm afraid. Much to David Aikin's dismay on Twitter.

[RogueBeaver]

It is. Chinese and Tibetan community groups are demanding apologies and it's been roiling through the media since Thursday. Then he's calling journalists "breathtakingly cynical" on Twitter for daring to treat Palinesque foreign policy gaffes as, well, Palinesque foreign policy gaffes. Usually pissy self-righteousness we saw with the separatist thing last year. Then Bob Fife said on QP this morning that Trudeau's been complaining to journalists that they're being too critical. ("Chutzpah" is putting it extremely mildly) That's without discussing the family history on certain authoritarian regimes (PRC, Cuba, Vichy, Iran).

[Marokai Backbeat]

I feel like "Trudeau is complaining that journalists are being too critical" has become a constant thing at this point. What does he expect reporters to do, hand-feed him grapes?

[RogueBeaver]

It isn't like he lacks media rationalizers and/or defenders, and not just from the usual quarters. Detracts from things of longer-term relevance: for instance, he announced over the weekend that he supports abolition of mandatory minimums and a carbon tax. (Seems to forget '08, but he'll be reminded) None of which made a splash outside the Sun, at least not yet. Of course, this is all kid stuff compared to a GE, especially the leaders' debates.

[Hatman 🍁]

I firmly believe JT is covered in a thick layer of Teflon coating at this point. But, we'll see.

[Smid]

It is. Chinese and Tibetan community groups are demanding apologies and it's been roiling through the media since Thursday.

What impact might this have in the vicinity of Markham?

Edit: And Richmond, BC, for that matter?

[RogueBeaver]

It is. Chinese and Tibetan community groups are demanding apologies and it's been roiling through the media since Thursday.

What impact might this have in the vicinity of Markham?

Edit: And Richmond, BC, for that matter?

Won't help the Grit battle to regain votes in those communities, that's for sure.

[Hatman 🍁]

Chinese vote is as good as gone for the Liberals, I think. I can't see them being within his coalition.