Canada General Discussion

[Hatman 🍁]

FTR, I got to meet Michael Sona (aka Pierre Poutine) tonight. He is sticking by his innocence.

There's gotta be a good story behind this.

Not really. He's a pretty cool guy actually. Of course, him and our mutual friend hate the Tories now. Not sure where Sona will park his vote, but our mutual friend (who is a very traditionalist conservative) is a Trudeau backer now.

What I found interesting is, according to Sona, the Tory database is very restricted, only a few people on each campaign have access.  The NDP meanwhile lets any seasoned volunteer have access. Anyways, Sona did not even have access to the Tory database.

Speaking as a traditionalist conservative, why would a traditionalist conservative ever vote for Trudeau? Wanting to establish a Canadian monarchy?

I'm aware of the database rules. I only got database access in 2011 after working on campaigns in 06 and 08. I was told the restrictions were to prevent "over enthusiastic volunteers" from pulling any crap. Shows how well that worked out

Well, he's pretty pro monarchy, and wants to bring back the red ensign. I think you two might get along well.

[Hatman 🍁]

...

[Hatman 🍁]

No word about any elections.

Any chances of a Premier Horwath?

Extremely unlikely, but hey 1990 happened. This race will be seen as more of a 3 way race than any election since perhaps 1995.

[Hatman 🍁]

That will probably be enough.

[Hatman 🍁]

24% does not give the NDP "10 seats". lol

[Hatman 🍁]

QS has a new co-leader, to replace Amir Khadir.

Even through the favorite was Alexandre Leduc, candidate in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve in 2012, it's Andrés Fontecilla, candidate in Laurier-Dorion. The two other candidates were David Fortin-Côté, candidate in Montarville and Yvan Zanetti, candidate in Argenteuil.

What happened to Khadir?

Is the QS electoral strategy to keep changing leaders to increase their seat count. The fact that they have 2 leaders probably helped them win 2 ridings. If they had just one leader, then they probably would have only won one. 2 leaders means 2 people in the spotlight.

[Hatman 🍁]

One of the co-spokespeople can't be an MNA per party rules.

Oh. Well, that's convenient. As I said, it's an interesting and so far successful electoral strategy.

[Hatman 🍁]

What are the party standing on Montreal City Council now?

[Hatman 🍁]

What are the party standing on Montreal City Council now?

UM will be formally dissolved, all its councillors are now independents. Curious to see how many of them, if any, join Equipe Coderre.

And the standings are then...?

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Oh dear. I suppose we can kiss our chances of another majority goodbye.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting. He is the only Black MLA in the legislature. Interestingly, the Black riding in NS is represented by a white guy.

I wonder if the Liberal MLA said something racist?

Could we be seeing a by-election? Paris won by a lot last time, but I see his riding is historically Tory. Could be a good 3-way fight if there is one.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting. He is the only Black MLA in the legislature. Interestingly, the Black riding in NS is represented by a white guy.

I wonder if the Liberal MLA said something racist?

Could we be seeing a by-election? Paris won by a lot last time, but I see his riding is historically Tory. Could be a good 3-way fight if there is one.

A lot of the black community in NS is spread out in little villages settled when the Tories fled to Canada after the American Revolution. Preston happens to be the largest of these black communities, but if the riding was just the Preston area, it's population would be outrageously small so the boundary commission tacked on some white exurbs to boost the population. The "black" riding is more like 1/2 black rural village and 1/2 white exurb. Hence the white MLA.

I suspect any by-election will be an NDP-Liberal one. While the Tories have nominated a solid, well-known candidate, they simply haven't recovered enough in the polls to make it a 3 way race.

Yeah, I see that it is historically actually a Liberal-PC riding.

I guess with the Blacks not concentrated enough, that's the reason Dexter got riding of t he Black riding in the latest redistribution?

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting. He is the only Black MLA in the legislature. Interestingly, the Black riding in NS is represented by a white guy.

I wonder if the Liberal MLA said something racist?

Could we be seeing a by-election? Paris won by a lot last time, but I see his riding is historically Tory. Could be a good 3-way fight if there is one.

A lot of the black community in NS is spread out in little villages settled when the Tories fled to Canada after the American Revolution. Preston happens to be the largest of these black communities, but if the riding was just the Preston area, it's population would be outrageously small so the boundary commission tacked on some white exurbs to boost the population. The "black" riding is more like 1/2 black rural village and 1/2 white exurb. Hence the white MLA.

I suspect any by-election will be an NDP-Liberal one. While the Tories have nominated a solid, well-known candidate, they simply haven't recovered enough in the polls to make it a 3 way race.

Yeah, I see that it is historically actually a Liberal-PC riding.

I guess with the Blacks not concentrated enough, that's the reason Dexter got riding of t he Black riding in the latest redistribution?

Yes and no. He also eliminated the 3 Acadian ridings (Argyle, Clare & Richmond). Depending on who you believe it was either because the ridings were too small and didn't represent their intended communities well or because none of those ridings had NDP MLA's

Yeah... BTW, do Blacks in NS vote Liberal or NDP?

[Hatman 🍁]

I know Preston has a Liberal MLA, but Paris is NDP and Black, and the only Black MP in Nova Scotia history (Gordon Earle) was also Black.  Did Preston (the community) go Liberal? I think it's in Peter Stoffer's federal riding, so they definitely vote NDP federally.

[Hatman 🍁]

Those numbers aren't that good for anyone, really.

Not bad for QS, actually... I think.

[Hatman 🍁]

Apologies if this was discussed a ways back. I found this chart from the Ipsos-Reid exit poll in 2011



Pretty standard stuff.

One idea occurs to me. The high Catholic NDP vote is undoubtedly influenced by the Orange Crush in Quebec. What do you guys think the Catholic vote would look like in English Canada?

Wish they had break down by visible minority. I know we have some data on that, but I wish we'd publish it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Darn. Surprised Coderre is doing better among Francos than Anglos. I guess Undecideds would break to Coderre.

2 new Ontario polls: I'll go with the pollster we've heard of. Abacus pegs 34-34-25.

So, Liberal majority then?

[Hatman 🍁]

So when does Peter Penashue get appointed to the Senate?

Whenever there is a vacancy in NL?

Wonder if he would get his cabinet spot back!

[Hatman 🍁]

In other news, there won't be an LCBO strike.

Something we can all be happy about. Liquor stores are an essential service don't you know. Let the teachers strike for weeks, but make sure we are well lubricated!

Wouldn't have been a problem for me though, it's not far to cross the border and get booze from a SAQ or dep.

[Hatman 🍁]

Elijah Harper has died.

I'll rather not comment.

Why, because he's a turncoat, or because him stalling constitutional talks?

So Rob Ford...

It's pretty funny, but it would explain a lot. Reminds me of Rush Limbaugh.

[Hatman 🍁]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/corinacorina/10-embarrassing-moments-from-toronto-mayor-rob-for-a4f9

Yeah, he's not crack at all...

[Hatman 🍁]

Wallin is also out of the Tory caucus.

Wow. What's with former CTV journalists turned Conservative Senators?

Maybe to fill their vacancies, Harper will have to appoint Lloyd Robertson and Craig Oliver?

[Hatman 🍁]

Deadspin/Gawker is attempting to raise the $200k asked for by the owner of the Rob Ford crack smoking video.  donate here.

http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/rob-ford-crackstarter

W00T. the'yre at 40K.

I'm just loving this story btw. I like when a Canadian becomes internationally notorious, plus I like whenever Toronto gets looked down upon by the world.

[Hatman 🍁]

Im looking forward to see if Colbert or Stewart say anything Monday about Ford.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Rob Ford fund is going to be tight. They're at $110,000 with 6 days left.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Rob Ford fund is going to be tight. They're at $110,000 with 6 days left.

They're at $135,000 with 4 1/2 days left.  Definitely on pace they just have to keep it going.

http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/rob-ford-crackstarter

Well, it'll likely slow down as they get closer to the deadline. That's why I think it's going to be tight.