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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1225 on: May 13, 2013, 10:29:29 AM »

Apologies if this was discussed a ways back. I found this chart from the Ipsos-Reid exit poll in 2011



Pretty standard stuff.

One idea occurs to me. The high Catholic NDP vote is undoubtedly influenced by the Orange Crush in Quebec. What do you guys think the Catholic vote would look like in English Canada?

Wish they had break down by visible minority. I know we have some data on that, but I wish we'd publish it.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1226 on: May 13, 2013, 12:53:40 PM »
« Edited: May 13, 2013, 08:01:36 PM by RogueBeaver »

Wynne said she hopes there isn't an election, Horwath will make her final budget demand tomorrow and then they'll start negotiating. Labour wants Horwath to pocket her gains, ditto Star and Globe. I still don't see a scenario where the NDP topples Wynne. Barring an election, Tories should ease off the accelerator a bit and send Hudak on the BBQ circuit. Has to get those personal negatives down if he wants better poll # and a clean shot next year or in 2015.

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2013/05/13/andrea_horwath_finding_out_that_propping_up_a_government_is_hard_to_do_cohn.html
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1227 on: May 14, 2013, 09:08:08 AM »

Horwath's final demands: taking tolls and their taxes out of the budget or cancelling corporate tax cuts, wait till there's a comprehensive transit funding plan. Rules out a coalition with the Grits, not that it was ever on the table.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1228 on: May 14, 2013, 09:26:42 AM »

Worthington's self-obituary.

http://www.torontosun.com/2013/05/14/peter-worthington-in-his-own-words
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Hash
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« Reply #1229 on: May 14, 2013, 02:27:53 PM »

The Purgatory war on science continues: http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/05/13/canada_and_science_nrc_will_now_only_do_science_that_promotes_economic_gain.html?fb_ref=sm_fb_share_blogpost

Science is only good if you can make money off of it.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1230 on: May 14, 2013, 05:51:13 PM »

Brazeau is also fighting the expense audit. So these will have to be settled in court. Ideally there would be legislation setting a hard residency requirement of x days in the province you represent, more realistically we might get an end to the residency honour system. Has to be something much stricter.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/05/14/senator_patrick_brazeau_to_fight_order_to_repay_48744_in_expenses.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1231 on: May 14, 2013, 07:04:47 PM »

Apparently the Senate can seize the funds and will do so if not repaid when the report is adopted next week. To quote Mr. Burns, "Ex-ce-llent!"
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1232 on: May 14, 2013, 09:02:36 PM »

Bob Fife will have new Senate revelations at 11, reaching to the "highest levels of government." Wonder what they'll be.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1233 on: May 14, 2013, 09:09:57 PM »

Nigel Wright brokered a deal while the audit was underway that he would help Duffy repay the money in exchange for going easy on him and reimbursing taxpayers. Jeebus.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/duffy-made-secret-deal-with-harper-s-chief-of-staff-during-audit-1.1282015
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1234 on: May 15, 2013, 08:22:15 AM »

2 new Ontario polls: I'll go with the pollster we've heard of. Abacus pegs 34-34-25.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1235 on: May 15, 2013, 09:44:16 AM »

Coderre leads the mayor's race with 34% to 22% for Bergeron and 19% for Harel. Huge # of undecideds, especially among non-Francos.

http://www.lapresse.ca/fichiers/4650915/municipale.pdf
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1236 on: May 15, 2013, 09:55:12 AM »

Darn. Surprised Coderre is doing better among Francos than Anglos. I guess Undecideds would break to Coderre.

2 new Ontario polls: I'll go with the pollster we've heard of. Abacus pegs 34-34-25.

So, Liberal majority then? Wink
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1237 on: May 15, 2013, 10:04:51 AM »

Also a huge undecided # in that category. As for Ontario, Forum pegged something similar a couple of weeks ago but translated it into a Liberal majority thanks to gains from the NDP. But on the flipside, why would Wynne make such an effort to keep Horwath onside if she thought a majority was possible? Sometimes leaders' behaviour can tell us something too, remember Quebec when Charest/Marois kept lurching between base and swing appeals?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1238 on: May 15, 2013, 10:42:01 AM »

Wright paid Duffy's expenses, 90k worth, from his personal account. Fife is a scoop machine.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1239 on: May 15, 2013, 11:01:02 AM »

PM didn't know about the Duffy gift.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1240 on: May 15, 2013, 02:34:09 PM »

Horwath's post-meeting presser seems rather inconclusive, said it's now in Wynne's hands.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1241 on: May 15, 2013, 09:14:24 PM »

Fife says Duffy told CTV that he repaid that money with an RBC loan, Wright wasn't involved, contradicting the PMO. They barely knew each other. Wright only informed Ethics Commish tonight about the purported loan. Since LeBreton said the money was repaid months ago... eesh.
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2952-0-0
exnaderite
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« Reply #1242 on: May 16, 2013, 02:49:21 AM »

So when does Peter Penashue get appointed to the Senate?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1243 on: May 16, 2013, 08:25:52 AM »

Almost certainly no Ontario June election, as we expected. In other news, Vaillancourt tried to personally bribe Mulcair with a white envelope sometime in the '90s.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1244 on: May 16, 2013, 08:27:29 AM »

So when does Peter Penashue get appointed to the Senate?

Whenever there is a vacancy in NL? Cheesy

Wonder if he would get his cabinet spot back!
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1245 on: May 16, 2013, 10:22:32 AM »

So when does Peter Penashue get appointed to the Senate?

Whenever there is a vacancy in NL? Cheesy

Wonder if he would get his cabinet spot back!

2017, and there are much more deserving party hacks out there from Newfieland.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1246 on: May 16, 2013, 11:57:02 AM »

Senate will move in 2018 to the GCC for a decade while the Parliament Buildings are renovated. Guessing Commons will also move out.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1247 on: May 16, 2013, 06:22:12 PM »

Wynne fired Godfrey from OLG and now the entire board of directors is quitting with him. LOL.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1248 on: May 16, 2013, 07:45:08 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2013, 07:47:40 PM by RogueBeaver »

Duffy's out of the Tory caucus. Because of the double-dipping in 2011.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1249 on: May 16, 2013, 09:06:04 PM »

Another twist: Fife says Duffy attempted to influence the CRTC hearings on Sun Media mandatory carriage. Caucus was furious at him, both MPs and senators.

In other news, there won't be an LCBO strike.
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