Can Romney defeat Obama?

[pbrower2a]

Well, Romney has many weaknesses, but let's take a look at the other plausible candidates:

Santorum - OK, he's a nutcase, what else to say? He would lose Arizona by 10 points.

Gingrich - philandering narcissist married to a woman younger than his daughters, makes outlandish statements, hated by closest colleagues.

Perry - I actually think he's not as unelectable as Santorum and Gingrich per se, but he wasn't sufficiently prepared for a national campaign and made a ton of idiotic gaffes.

I still don't understand these sorts of Paul exclusions.  Paul is the only GOP candidate who can pull the political center to his campaign.  Every other candidate is a socon / Tea Party / staunch conservative lemming walk.

Romney is Bob Dole redux.  Everyone else is Mike Huckabee redux.

Ron Paul is the sort who attracts young people to vote for him in the Republican primaries -- and when those people find that the Establishment doesn't want him (the Military-Industrial Complex certainly doesn't), then many of his supporters will end up with President Obama due to their rejection of the 'social values' of Movement Conservatives.

[TheGlobalizer]

Well, Romney has many weaknesses, but let's take a look at the other plausible candidates:

Santorum - OK, he's a nutcase, what else to say? He would lose Arizona by 10 points.

Gingrich - philandering narcissist married to a woman younger than his daughters, makes outlandish statements, hated by closest colleagues.

Perry - I actually think he's not as unelectable as Santorum and Gingrich per se, but he wasn't sufficiently prepared for a national campaign and made a ton of idiotic gaffes.

I still don't understand these sorts of Paul exclusions.  Paul is the only GOP candidate who can pull the political center to his campaign.  Every other candidate is a socon / Tea Party / staunch conservative lemming walk.

Romney is Bob Dole redux.  Everyone else is Mike Huckabee redux.

Ron Paul is the sort who attracts young people to vote for him in the Republican primaries -- and when those people find that the Establishment doesn't want him (the Military-Industrial Complex certainly doesn't), then many of his supporters will end up with President Obama due to their rejection of the 'social values' of Movement Conservatives.

Yes.  This is why the GOP will lose in 2012.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

He can but the winds are certainly not blowing in his direction.

Romney is overrated. He is like John Kerry. He's from Massachusetts. We considered him the "most electable." He seemed to have a "solid record." But he was stiff, a flip flopper, and generally boring.

I look forward to his concession speech.

[Vosem]

If a moderate Republican like me cannot see myself voting for Romney, who will?

I will, almost certainly.

Ron Paul is the sort who attracts young people to vote for him in the Republican primaries -- and when those people find that the Establishment doesn't want him (the Military-Industrial Complex certainly doesn't), then many of his supporters will end up with President Obama due to their rejection of the 'social values' of Movement Conservatives.

This is just bullsh**t. The sort of people who support Ron Paul are generally disinterested in non-Paul politics; they view the GOP and Dems as two sides of the same coin, not two different, and will in general stay home.

Everything Simfan said is true, although Romney does also have positive attributes -- winning elections in Massachusetts; pliability; his time at Bain Capital (this is a negative only to liberal politics junkies, and would be much easier to spin into a positive than a negative thing); his Olympics thing; and the most important fact of all - that the number of people who strongly disapprove of Obama outnumber those that strongly approve 2-1. The enthusiasm gap in the midterms was a just a reflection of this (though Obama has the resources to cut a severe dent in this once campaigning starts, he can't just wish this simple fact away). These people, much as they may dislike Romney, will mostly turn out to vote Romney; few of them will actually stay home and risk four more years of Obama due to their own inaction.

[big bad fab]

Romney can't really defeat Obama, but Obama may lose this election, if you see what I mean

[NHI]

He can. Frankly, the only other people who could defeat Obama aren't running.

[Simfan34]

If a moderate Republican like me cannot see myself voting for Romney, who will?

Everything Simfan said is true, although Romney does also have positive attributes -- winning elections in Massachusetts; pliability; his time at Bain Capital (this is a negative only to liberal politics junkies, and would be much easier to spin into a positive than a negative thing); his Olympics thing; and the most important fact of all - that the number of people who strongly disapprove of Obama outnumber those that strongly approve 2-1. The enthusiasm gap in the midterms was a just a reflection of this (though Obama has the resources to cut a severe dent in this once campaigning starts, he can't just wish this simple fact away). These people, much as they may dislike Romney, will mostly turn out to vote Romney; few of them will actually stay home and risk four more years of Obama due to their own inaction.

Keep in mind I'd like to vote for Romney, but I'm not sure I'd be able to press the button come November. I'm far less sure I'd be able to vote for Obama, in any case. But I don't see too many particular positives. Bain Capital, he was a businessman, and managed to clean up a messed up Olympic Games. Those are certainly positives. But he was elected- just once, and was likely to lose if he ran again- and all politicians are elected at least once. Fil's got it- Romney can't win, but Obama can't lose. This might end up one with one of the lowest turnouts in recent memory, or at least the least enthusiasm. At least with Perry we'd go down happily.

I may very well end up writing in Huntsman in November.

[Yank2133]

No.

And is not because the President is such a strong candidate. The truth that no one in the media wants to admit is Mitt Romney blows as a candidate. I have said before, he is a guy who looks like he can compete now because he is what swing voters see as the "generic Republican". But once the campaign starts and the ads start rolling, he becomes less and less electable. To me he is a guy who will run close with the President till September, but then lose the election by 8-9 points.

[Lincoln Republican]

I may very well end up writing in Huntsman in November.

You can write in Mickey Mouse if you like.  It will have the same effect on the outcome of the election.

[angus]

He's pliable.  He's erasable and re-programmable.  This is as much an asset in the general election as it is a deficit in the intra-party contests.  As much as I respect them both, guys like Santorum and Paul are not pliable, so even if nominated they would be roundly defeated in the general election.

I dont think pliability is quite the asset you make it out to be.   

It is when you're the "unlikeable, uncharismatic Mormon, whose major claim to fame is running a business where he shut down American factories, shipped jobs overseas, and increased the wealth of rich CEOs."

Anyway, voters in primaries are certainly ideological.  You can't easily become a nominee of the Democrats or Republicans--or Libertarians or Socialists, for that matter--if you are the sort to sit down and consider evidence and be willing to change your mind.  But it can be done.  Both parties have shown an occasional willingness to nominate such creatures.  Swing voters--not necessarily loyal Democrats and loyal Republicans--but swing voters like to pick candidates which show good judgment.  Reprogrammable Romney is in a position to try to convince them of that precisely because he is so pliable.

Voters sitting near me who voted for Romney said they voted for him precisely because of his electability.  You could consider it a sad thing that this is his most endearing feature.  At least Santorum voters and Paul voters and Bachmann voters can find someone actually there, under that suit, and they are one type of voter.  But it's the swing vote that you want to win in a general election, and to that end, you really want someone who doesn't have too much ideological baggage.

[Simfan34]

I may very well end up writing in Huntsman in November.

You can write in Mickey Mouse if you like.  It will have the same effect on the outcome of the election.

After yesterday, maybe not, maybe not...

[Хahar 🤔]

Romney's not going to win. He might not win fifteen states.

[Simfan34]

What about now?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Everyone will continue to underestimate Mitt Romney until it's too late. After these last two weeks, I say it's advantage Romney. Things have been horrible for Mitt, yet he's coming very close in many lean-D states and holding his ownin the toss-ups. Plus, it's only July. I am pleased.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Everyone will continue to underestimate Mitt Romney until it's too late. After these last two weeks, I say it's advantage Romney. Things have been horrible for Mitt, yet he's coming very close in many lean-D states and holding his ownin the toss-ups. Plus, it's only July. I am pleased.

How is it advantage Romney when Obama is leading in pretty much every swing state except for Florida and Iowa. He came close in the April and May polls when he got the nomination bump. What states is he coming close in?

[Ljube]

Polls are at Obama +2 nationally. A month ago they were at Obama +3-4.

[Vosem]

It's advantage Obama at this point, but even if Romney were much farther behind he would still be able to come back and win if the circumstances were right: it's July.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Everyone will continue to underestimate Mitt Romney until it's too late. After these last two weeks, I say it's advantage Romney. Things have been horrible for Mitt, yet he's coming very close in many lean-D states and holding his ownin the toss-ups. Plus, it's only July. I am pleased.

How is it advantage Romney when Obama is leading in pretty much every swing state except for Florida and Iowa. He came close in the April and May polls when he got the nomination bump. What states is he coming close in?

I say it's advantage Romney because Obama has pretty much thrown the kitchen sink at him and the race is still close. Meanwhile, Romney is closing the gap in lean-D states like Oregon, New Mexico, Pennsylvania. It shows you that people are fed up with Obama.

So when Mitt has a running mate and actually starts spending his money, I think the tide will change fairly fast.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What about now?

Just as then, I think you ran across some really bad sites when you did your "research", back when you posted the OP.

The idea that Mittens destroyed the GOP in MA is ridiculous, especially considering that the year he left office was the one of the worst GOP defeats nationwide in decades and the GOP nominee for Governor ran a really lame campaign. His approval ratings bounced all over the place according to SurveyUSA and only plunged permenently into the 30's in the last three or four months of the campaign, the height of criticisms of his administration as part of the Democratic campaign to take his job. Criticisms which weren't well responded to by the GOP campaign. Prior to that his numbers always recovered and were in fact at parity as late as the summer of 2006. Healey destroyed herself along with the "help" of McCain loyalists on here compaign and Bush's lousy numbers. Not mention the fact that Patrick's campaign was the prototype for Obama's Presidential campaign.

I read all sorts of articles and looked at his record as a governor. I had no idea he more or less destroyed the MA GOP's chances of winning elections!

Did you really thing they were all free of spin or anti-Romney bias?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

All depends on what happens with his campaign from here. The outsourcing, bain and auto-bailout attacks can all be turned into positives or atleast net neutrals depending on the skill and quality of the responses given to them.


He most certainly can win if he makes the right strategic moves.

[Simfan34]

Will I be vindicated? I think I will be vindicated.

[Lief 🗽]

Keep in mind that Mitt Romney is an unlikeable, uncharismatic Mormon, whose major claim to fame is running a business where he shut down American factories, shipped jobs overseas, and increased the wealth of rich CEOs. Add to that that the man flip-flops on literally issue and cannot be trusted, and it's very easy to defeat him.

prescient

[Fuzzy Bear]

Romney can beat Obama, but he's a decided underdog and he will need outside help: a major outside event reflecting horribly on Obama in a dramatic way is needed.  The things that the GOP touts (bad jobs reports, occasional verbal missteps by Obama, social liberalism by Obama) won't turn this election Romney's way, and given the soft economy, this begs an explanation.

The explanation is two-fold.  One part of it is that Romney is just not likeable.  No one I know is voting for Romney because they like him; they are voting for Romney because they dislike Obama intensely.  Almost all of these people are fixed GOP Presidential voters.  Romney can't avoid the ELITIST gaffe that distances him from the average voter in the minds of the average voter.  Most people think that most politicians live worlds apart from them and don't understand their particular situations, but Romney exudes this to levels where even Republicans don't really like him.  And it's not one or two gaffes; it's a running narrative with Romney that has turned him into Obama's gift that keeps on giving.

The second part of the explanation is that Obama (with a big assist from Bill Clinton) has formulated a more credible narrative in the minds of voters and stuck with it.  The idea that Obama has "put a floor" on the economic crisis and kept things from getting worse has gained traction with voters.  It's gained traction because a majority of voters (A) believe that the current economic problems stem from something far more structurally serious than a mere downturn in the business cycle, and (B) blame George W. Bush and Republican policies for the crisis that resulted in the events of 2008 and subsequent fallout.  This has been a consistent theme of the Obama campaign, and people have bought into it.

Conversely, Romney has swung from one narrative to another, and each of them has fallen apart when Romney's seemingly endless contradictions come to light.  Initially, the narrative was centered around unemployment being terrible and Romney being a "job creator", but this fell apart as voters learned that what Romney did at Bain Capital was not "job creation".  He couldn't bring himself to tout himself as a competent Governor because he was afraid of what the GOP base would think of RomneyCare, his signature accomplishment.  He couldn't run as a tax cutter because it begged questions of his own tax returns, which he won't release.  In the end, Romney was blindsided by his performace at the Boca Raton fundraiser where he went on about the now-famous "47 percent".  This was more than a gaffe; this was a window into the soul and spirit of Romney that caused people to see an attitude that was enough to cause a huge number of people, including a significant number of people who will vote for Romney this fall, to NEVER like him, NEVER be open to warming up to him.  The unlikeablity of Romney is a running narrative that won't go away, and this puts a ceiling on Romney's high end of the vote.

[5280]

Romney can beat Obama, but he's a decided underdog and he will need outside help: a major outside event reflecting horribly on Obama in a dramatic way is needed.  The things that the GOP touts (bad jobs reports, occasional verbal missteps by Obama, social liberalism by Obama) won't turn this election Romney's way, and given the soft economy, this begs an explanation.

The explanation is two-fold.  One part of it is that Romney is just not likeable.  No one I know is voting for Romney because they like him; they are voting for Romney because they dislike Obama intensely.  Almost all of these people are fixed GOP Presidential voters.  Romney can't avoid the ELITIST gaffe that distances him from the average voter in the minds of the average voter.  Most people think that most politicians live worlds apart from them and don't understand their particular situations, but Romney exudes this to levels where even Republicans don't really like him.  And it's not one or two gaffes; it's a running narrative with Romney that has turned him into Obama's gift that keeps on giving.

The second part of the explanation is that Obama (with a big assist from Bill Clinton) has formulated a more credible narrative in the minds of voters and stuck with it.  The idea that Obama has "put a floor" on the economic crisis and kept things from getting worse has gained traction with voters.  It's gained traction because a majority of voters (A) believe that the current economic problems stem from something far more structurally serious than a mere downturn in the business cycle, and (B) blame George W. Bush and Republican policies for the crisis that resulted in the events of 2008 and subsequent fallout.  This has been a consistent theme of the Obama campaign, and people have bought into it.

Conversely, Romney has swung from one narrative to another, and each of them has fallen apart when Romney's seemingly endless contradictions come to light.  Initially, the narrative was centered around unemployment being terrible and Romney being a "job creator", but this fell apart as voters learned that what Romney did at Bain Capital was not "job creation".  He couldn't bring himself to tout himself as a competent Governor because he was afraid of what the GOP base would think of RomneyCare, his signature accomplishment.  He couldn't run as a tax cutter because it begged questions of his own tax returns, which he won't release.  In the end, Romney was blindsided by his performace at the Boca Raton fundraiser where he went on about the now-famous "47 percent".  This was more than a gaffe; this was a window into the soul and spirit of Romney that caused people to see an attitude that was enough to cause a huge number of people, including a significant number of people who will vote for Romney this fall, to NEVER like him, NEVER be open to warming up to him.  The unlikeablity of Romney is a running narrative that won't go away, and this puts a ceiling on Romney's high end of the vote.

Welcome to the forums.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Naw, only Obama can defeat Obama.