IA PrimR: CNN/Time: Santorum surging to third, Romney leads

[RI]

New Poll: Iowa President by CNN/Time on 2011-12-27

Summary:

Romney:	25%
Paul:	22%
Santorum:	16%
Gingrich:	14%
Perry:	11%
Bachmann:	9%
Other:	1%
Undecided:	2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[RI]

[cavalcade]

Paul and Santorum being the top two in Iowa would be hilarious.

[Oakvale]

Congratulations Phil!

[tmthforu94]

I think they nailed the top 3. I actually think, once organization is considered, Gingrich will fall behind Perry and battle Bachmann for 5th place.

[RI]

I think they nailed the top 3. I actually think, once organization is considered, Gingrich will fall behind Perry and battle Bachmann for 5th place.

I think the top 3 are correct, but I don't think it'll be in this order. Turnout differentials are always quite different than most polls can get at. I wouldn't be surprised if any of these three won.

[Badger]

So is Santorum finally getting his flavor of the month status? With less than a week to go is his surge too late to earn more than an "honorable mention" award?

[Lief 🗽]

Santorum is basically a poorer, less loveable, worse organized Huckabee, so even if he wins Iowa he's not going anywhere. This is basically the best possible result for Mittens.

[Niemeyerite]

They only polled republicans.

[TheGlobalizer]

They only polled republicans.

Nice catch.  Obviously, this poll would understate Paul's support significantly.

[Badger]

Santorum is basically a poorer, less loveable, worse organized Huckabee, so even if he wins Iowa he's not going anywhere. This is basically the best possible result for Mittens.

I'm not so sure. First don't forget that pre-Fox huckabee wasn't the genial imaged guy he is portrayed as now. 08 huck was very much the fire-breathing social conservative, much like santorum is running as. Secondly, there was nowhere near the same distaste and mistrust among the base for mccain in 08 (or even for romney in 08 come to think of it) as there currently is for mitt.

He'd still have a HARD row to hoe in proving himself a real contender rather than a fluke, especially with mitt's advantage in $ & national organization, but let's just say romney would be less pleased with a santorum win in IA than a paul win (though still more happy than a newt win there).

[M]

Santorum is basically a poorer, less loveable, worse organized Huckabee, so even if he wins Iowa he's not going anywhere. This is basically the best possible result for Mittens.

I'm not so sure. First don't forget that pre-Fox huckabee wasn't the genial imaged guy he is portrayed as now. 08 huck was very much the fire-breathing social conservative, much like santorum is running as.

That is not how I remember him AT ALL during the campaign. He was the guy I'd want to go to a ball game with.

[retromike22]

SANTORUM SURGE! lol that would make a good 1950s sci fi movie.

[The Mikado]

Santorum is basically a poorer, less loveable, worse organized Huckabee, so even if he wins Iowa he's not going anywhere. This is basically the best possible result for Mittens.

I'm not so sure. First don't forget that pre-Fox huckabee wasn't the genial imaged guy he is portrayed as now. 08 huck was very much the fire-breathing social conservative, much like santorum is running as.

That is not how I remember him AT ALL during the campaign. He was the guy I'd want to go to a ball game with.

Both are true...he changed course late in the campaign to be more aggressive out of desperation.  His Mormon-bashing late in the game is a good sign of a turning point.

[Free Palestine]

SANTORUM SURGE! lol that would make a good 1950s sci fi movie.

Or some gay chorophilia porn film

[Bull Moose Base]

They only polled republicans.

As Nate Silver points out in a good analysis, the Santorum surge could be self-fulfilling.  (The Gingrich surge sort of was.)  So even if this poll is an outlier, the press from it could perhaps spark some real momentum for him.  But PPP and DMR/Selzer have ones coming up this weekend that could have more effect.

[Eraserhead]

This poll is a joke because, as was mentioned earlier in this thread and on Politicalwire:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So I would think Romney and Santorum's support is probably being overstated by this poll. Paul's support is definitely being understated.

Why even release crap like this? It's bad enough that they're trying poll through the holidays at all...

[TheGlobalizer]

This poll is a joke because, as was mentioned earlier in this thread and on Politicalwire:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So I would think Romney and Santorum's support is probably being overstated by this poll. Paul's support is definitely being understated.

Why even release crap like this? It's bad enough that they're trying poll through the holidays at all...

Fits their chosen narrative, since they don't know what to do about Ron Paul.

Only half joking.

[© tweed]

yeah if they only polled (R)s this is a serious oversight by an even more serious joke of a Ted Turner media company.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

yeah if they only polled (R)s this is a serious oversight by an even more serious joke of a Ted Turner media company.

They might not be informed about the Battle of Waterloo, but hey, they screw up less than Fox.

[Lief 🗽]

What if a trash poll caused a Santorum surge that led him to winning Iowa and then the nomination?

It's a crazy, crazy world we live in.

[Tender Branson]

Santorum probably starts taking votes away from Paul now ...

Which means Romney is well positioned to win.

Unless Santorum really rises and wins there, which I would rate 50/50 now.

[TheGlobalizer]

It's just one poll, fellas, it's not manna from god.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Santorum probably starts taking votes away from Paul now ...

I'm skeptical about that. Gingrich, Perry and Bachmann are the obvious vote pools for Santorum, not Paul's loyalists.
 Don't forget that Santorum and Paul clashed frequently, so I find it hard to believe that the second choice of the latter's voters would be the former.