PPP-National: Romney leads Obama

[Ben Romney]

PPP-National

Romney-Obama: 47/45
Obama/Gingrich: 49/44
Obama/Paul: 46/41
Obama/Bachmann: 50/41
Obama/Perry: 50/40

For the first time in PPP's monthly national polling since July 2010 Mitt Romney's taken a lead, albeit a small one, over Barack Obama. He's up 47-45.

Romney has two main things going for him. He leads the President 45-36 with independents. And he's also benefiting from a much more unified party with 88% of Republicans committed to voting for him while only 83% of Democrats say they'll vote for Obama.

Our national survey confirms the wide electability gap between Romney and the rest of the Republican candidate field. Obama leads both Newt Gingrich (49-44) and Ron Paul (46-41) by 5 points, Michele Bachmann (50-41) by 9, and Rick Perry (50-40) by 10. It continues to look like if GOP voters really want to defeat Obama they pretty much have to nominate Romney.

One thing that could confound Romney's prospects is if a strong third party candidate entered the race. We find that pretty much all of the big names who have been mentioned for potential independent bids would take a lot more voters from Romney than Obama.

The strongest potential independent candidate we tested is Donald Trump who gets 19% in a three way contest with Obama at 45% and Romney at 31%. The folks who say they would support Trump go for Romney 71-10 in a straight up head to head with Obama. Donald Trump's ego could potentially prove to be Obama's greatest asset for reelection in 2012.

The independent candidate who gets the next largest amount of support is Ron Paul at 17%. Obama would get 42% and Romney 37% in that match up. Folks who would vote for Paul third party go for Romney by a 55-17 margin over Obama in their head to head, making them at least a slightly more politically diverse group than the Trump voters. Paul would achieve a near three way tie with independent voters, getting 27% to Obama's 32% and Romney's 31%.

The only other potential independent we tested who registers in double digits is Jon Huntsman at 11%. Obama gets 43% and Romney 37% in that three way contest. Although Huntsman has built up a reputation as the Republican Democrats love and is getting a huge chunk of his support in New Hampshire from Obama voters, he would still draw disproportionately from Romney in a three way contest. His voters go 63-15 for Romney over Obama in a head to head.

It's clear there's a lot more desire for a third party candidate from conservative voters than Obama supporters. The strongest third party hopeful beyond the 3 in double digits is Gary Johnson who gets 9%. The three folks we tested who might presumably have more appeal to the left come in at 8% for Michael Bloomberg, 7% for Bernie Sanders, and 4% for Rocky Anderson.

The big picture on our national poll remains the same: Obama/Romney is a toss up, Obama has an advantage on the rest of the Republican field, and a third party candidate could pave the way for Obama's reelection.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/romney-leads-obama.html

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Leads Perry by only ten?  Wha.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

That poll runs counter to the recent CNN poll which shows

Registered Voters:

52-45 Obama/Paul
52-45 Obama/Romney
56-40 Obama/Gingrich
57-39 Obama/Perry
57-38 Obama/Bachmann
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145697.0

I wonder if the same conservative whiners will complain that PPP is taking a biased sample this time

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Obama is beating Romney in South Carolina. That's pretty much all we need to know about the GOP's prospects right now.

[tmthforu94]

Romney is beating Obama in Michigan. That's pretty much all we need to know about the Democrat's prospects right now.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Except that he isn't.

[J. J.]

It is still a bit early for head to head match ups.  Obama is still not down enough in approve/disapprove for it to be unrecoverable. 

[Gustaf]

For the record, Romney is as up in Michigan as Obama is in SC, more or less.

[krazen1211]

Whites are fleeing the Democratic party. Obama is performing well below Dukakis levels among whites.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The white vote will probably end up like it was in 2004 assuming Obama narrowly wins re-election. Romney's record at Bain Capital won't help him in Ohio or Pennsylvania.

[DrScholl]

Obama will receive close the same percentage most Democrats receive of the white vote, not everyone votes based on race, Republicans shouldn't count on that.

The approvals tell it all, only 35% approve of Romney, while Obama is at 45%. Even if you assume all of those with no opinion would magically approve of Romney, the difference wouldn't be much and we all know everyone with no opinion will approve of him.

[pbrower2a]

Romney is beating Obama in Michigan. That's pretty much all we need to know about the Democrat's prospects right now.

One outlier poll?

In Presidential years since 1992, Michigan looks as if it is within easy reach for the Republican nominee for President until the unions and African-American groups have their get-out-the-vote drives. Such was so even in 2008, the worst year for a Republican nominee in Michigan since the Goldwater debacle. Nationwide Republicans spend great amounts of money in what looks like a swing state until the door swings hard and knocks them out.

The Republican Governor is intensely unpopular, and the Democratic US Senator up for re-election is already out of reach.   

[Lincoln Republican]

Bottom line, Romney is the only Republican who can defeat Obama.

[CaDan]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Paulie, Paulie, Paulie...

Notice how with you, "one outlier poll" applies only to Michigan, but not South Carolina.

Why is that?

Irony.

[Eraserhead]

You guys have all missed the big story. For some reason, Donald Trump is polling at 19% as a third party candidate... polling even better than Ron Paul! I'm sorry but who the hell would vote for Donald Trump at this point? I don't get it.

[Oakvale]

You guys have all missed the big story. For some reason, Donald Trump is polling at 19% as a third party candidate... polling even better than Ron Paul! I'm sorry but who the hell would vote for Donald Trump at this point? I don't get it.

It's just a generic third party protest vote with Trump as the placeholder... I hope.

[argentarius]

You guys have all missed the big story. For some reason, Donald Trump is polling at 19% as a third party candidate... polling even better than Ron Paul! I'm sorry but who the hell would vote for Donald Trump at this point? I don't get it.

It's just a generic third party protest vote with Trump as the placeholder... I hope.

If so then his fans are sadly mistaken. He's well in with the establishment. I hope his massive ego doesn't compel him to run, but an Obama-Huntsman-Trump-Paul race would be absolutely hilarious. If the republican nominee is anyone but Huntsman (maybe Romney, if he decides that he's a centrist after all) and if Trump and Paul go, it wouldn't be funny, because Obama would end up winning every state.

[memphis]

You guys have all missed the big story. For some reason, Donald Trump is polling at 19% as a third party candidate... polling even better than Ron Paul! I'm sorry but who the hell would vote for Donald Trump at this point? I don't get it.

People like celebrities. It may surprise you to hear, there was a bad actor a while back who actually became governor of California.

[Mr. Morden]

For some reason, Donald Trump is polling at 19% as a third party candidate... polling even better than Ron Paul! I'm sorry but who the hell would vote for Donald Trump at this point? I don't get it.

According to the crosstabs, white, very conservative men who identify as Independents, and are between the ages of 30 and 45.

[tmthforu94]

Romney is beating Obama in Michigan. That's pretty much all we need to know about the Democrat's prospects right now.

One outlier poll?

EPIC has came out with two polls with Romney ahead. Detroit News and Marketing Resource Group also has Obama leading within the margin of error. Not impressive for a state Obama won by 17% in 2008.

[Tender Branson]

Romney is beating Obama in Michigan. That's pretty much all we need to know about the Democrat's prospects right now.

One outlier poll?

EPIC has came out with two polls with Romney ahead. Detroit News and Marketing Resource Group also has Obama leading within the margin of error. Not impressive for a state Obama won by 17% in 2008.

Michigan's unemployment rate has just dropped to below 10% for the first time in 3 years.

The rate will soon be 3% lower in the state than when Obama took office.

You can be sure that Obama will use this and the Detroit sayings to campaign the sh*t out of Flip-Flop-Mitt.

[krazen1211]

Obama will receive close the same percentage most Democrats receive of the white vote, not everyone votes based on race, Republicans shouldn't count on that.

The approvals tell it all, only 35% approve of Romney, while Obama is at 45%. Even if you assume all of those with no opinion would magically approve of Romney, the difference wouldn't be much and we all know everyone with no opinion will approve of him.

It has nothing to do with race. In the aggregate, Democrats performed far below Dukakis levels with whites in 2010.

[memphis]

Obama will receive close the same percentage most Democrats receive of the white vote, not everyone votes based on race, Republicans shouldn't count on that.

The approvals tell it all, only 35% approve of Romney, while Obama is at 45%. Even if you assume all of those with no opinion would magically approve of Romney, the difference wouldn't be much and we all know everyone with no opinion will approve of him.

It has nothing to do with race. In the aggregate, Democrats performed far below Dukakis levels with whites in 2010.

Thing is the Dems don't need to do much better than Dukakis with whites. It'd be nice if they did, but the 2012 electorate is not the 1988 electorate. If you take Dukakis's percentes from the 1988 exit polling with self-described whites, blacks, hispanics, and others and move them into the 2008 electorate, Dukakis is at 49% nationwide. And that was back in 2008. 2012 will continue the trend of a browner electorate. The GOP has to win more and more whites every election just to break even unless they're willing to change their policies. How long do you think this is sustainable? The GOP is headed for long term minority status that will cling to the filibuster as their only tool. The Dems would be wise to go ahead and abolish it if they are in control at the beginning of the next Congress.

[freepcrusher]

Obama will receive close the same percentage most Democrats receive of the white vote, not everyone votes based on race, Republicans shouldn't count on that.

The approvals tell it all, only 35% approve of Romney, while Obama is at 45%. Even if you assume all of those with no opinion would magically approve of Romney, the difference wouldn't be much and we all know everyone with no opinion will approve of him.

It has nothing to do with race. In the aggregate, Democrats performed far below Dukakis levels with whites in 2010.

little history lesson krazy. Dukakis lost the white vote 59-41 in 1988. In 2010 the generic ballot gave whites a 60-40 R edge. Since when is a one point drop "Far below"?

[bgwah]

The full third candidate results:

43 Obama
41 Romney
9 Johnson

42 Obama
37 Romney
17 Paul

43 Obama
41 Romney
8 Bloomberg

43 Obama
37 Romney
11 Huntsman

45 Obama
31 Romney
19 Trump

42 Obama
42 Romney
7 Sanders

44 Obama
43 Romney
4 Anderson