Romney-Gingrich-Paul to the convention?
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  Romney-Gingrich-Paul to the convention?
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Author Topic: Romney-Gingrich-Paul to the convention?  (Read 416 times)
California8429
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« on: December 19, 2011, 05:06:18 PM »

I was thinking it could be somewhat likely.

Paul narrowly wins Iowa. Romney takes New Hampshire. Gingrich takes South Carolina. By then a lot more of the other conservatives (Santorum, Perry, Bachmann) drop out so Gingrich squeaks by in Florida. Paul takes the early February states (Maine, Nevada, maybe Colorado) while Romney wins the who cares MO caucus and MN. Later February Romney takes MI, Gingrich takes AZ, and the race continues all the way to June when Romney wins Utah.



Does anyone else see a somewhat likely long battled 3 way primary (3 way assuming Paul will stay on in every situation no matter what)
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2011, 05:17:31 PM »

Gingrich is done.  If it goes to the convention it's Paul and Romney, and/or Huntsman.  Still TBD to see which Mormon the GOP branch of the MSM (Rush, Hannity, etc.) will support.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2011, 05:23:25 PM »

No. The primary will be decided after the first few contests as always. If Romney wins Iowa, it's over. Gingrich is finished as it is.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2011, 05:29:34 PM »

No. The primary will be decided after the first few contests as always. If Romney wins Iowa, it's over. Gingrich is finished as it is.

Yeah, this.

Brokered conventions only happen in the fevered imaginations of political nerds like us, not in reality.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2011, 05:33:57 PM »

No, Paul wins Iowa, and Romney wins New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida which means it will be pretty much over by the end of January.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #5 on: December 19, 2011, 05:43:21 PM »

Guys, let's just roll with the scenario.  For the hell of it, I crunched the numbers and came up with these provisional delegate totals, going into the convention.  I unrealistically assumed that after endorsements and scheming, the net effect of delegates awarded at "proportional" contests would be winner-takes-all.

Gingrich 907
Romney 877
Paul 279

The nominee just has to have a simple majority, right?  I have a feeling that Paul won't accept the  running mate spot.  It would seem that Gingrich should come out on top in any ticket-sharing deal with Romney, but would Romney accept being Gingrich's VP?  I have a feeling this one may come down to several ballots and, perhaps a compromise candidate?  A Jeb Bush, Christ Christie, or Mitch Daniels?
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #6 on: December 19, 2011, 05:51:23 PM »


lol
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