Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh. I'm looking at the Ottawa numbers, and the three safest Tory seats are also the three least populated ridings in the city (Nepean, Rideau-Carleton and Kanata-Mississippi Mills).  Rideau-Carleton, perhaps the most Tory of the three has less than 90,000 people!


Ottawa South, a safe Liberal seat will be the largest in the city at over 120,000 people.

Isn't the theory that suburban places like those three ridings are rapidly growing so you purposely make them underpopulated now with the understanding that they are growing as we speak?

That's the theory. But then the commission also makes ridings that are losing people (Northern Ontario) really small. So that means ridings (like Ottawa South) with relatively stable populations are hugely over populated.

Now Rideau-Carleton could experience much growth, but I'm not sure it will get more than 15,000 over the next ten years. Maybe. But that it would only put it at the provincial average. Ideally, it should be at the provincial average half way between redistributions.

If you read the report, they mainly focused on putting communities together, as participants didn't care about the equalization and the population numbers.

They also accused Carol Hugues and Charlie Angus of having an innapropriate behaviour during the process.

I saw that...

I should've took part, as someone needed to stand up for population equality!

We will be moving to Ottawa South in a month, and our votes are going to be worth 2/3 of a vote of someone in Stittsville or Riverside South

And only 25% of a vote of someone in Charlottetown!

Touche, but knowing the kind of people that live in sububan/exurban Ottawa, I feel worse about them having more voting power than me.

[King of Kensington]

Wow, you gotta wonder if the Commission decided to screw Olivia Chow for her stupid antics at the boundary hearings:

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/on/now/reports/19map-REPO-CITY-OF-TORONTO.pdf

Now there's Spadina-Fort York and the stupid riding of University-Rosedale.  The TC/Mount Pleasant and St. Paul's/Trinity-Spadina splits made far more sense. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Isn't Olivia running for mayor?

[Smid]

Ugh. I'm looking at the Ottawa numbers, and the three safest Tory seats are also the three least populated ridings in the city (Nepean, Rideau-Carleton and Kanata-Mississippi Mills).  Rideau-Carleton, perhaps the most Tory of the three has less than 90,000 people!


Ottawa South, a safe Liberal seat will be the largest in the city at over 120,000 people.

Isn't the theory that suburban places like those three ridings are rapidly growing so you purposely make them underpopulated now with the understanding that they are growing as we speak?

That's the theory. But then the commission also makes ridings that are losing people (Northern Ontario) really small. So that means ridings (like Ottawa South) with relatively stable populations are hugely over populated.

Now Rideau-Carleton could experience much growth, but I'm not sure it will get more than 15,000 over the next ten years. Maybe. But that it would only put it at the provincial average. Ideally, it should be at the provincial average half way between redistributions.

If you read the report, they mainly focused on putting communities together, as participants didn't care about the equalization and the population numbers.

They also accused Carol Hugues and Charlie Angus of having an innapropriate behaviour during the process.

I saw that...

I should've took part, as someone needed to stand up for population equality!

We will be moving to Ottawa South in a month, and our votes are going to be worth 2/3 of a vote of someone in Stittsville or Riverside South

And only 25% of a vote of someone in Charlottetown!

Touche, but knowing the kind of people that live in sububan/exurban Ottawa, I feel worse about them having more voting power than me.

I was teasing a little, but also agreeing with you in a broader sense. I actually think your rules should be tightened to +/- 10%, instead of 25%, and I don't like the special circumstances rules that allow some ridings to be further from that. Perhaps even including Stats Canada projected population estimates, and requiring that the projected enrolments by the next redistribution fall within a particular range as well so that if an area deviates from quota by a substantial amount, it would have to be because of projected population changes.

[King of Kensington]

Isn't Olivia running for mayor?

Not sure...but maybe this map represents the unofficial beginning of her mayoral campaign. 

[lilTommy]

Wow, you gotta wonder if the Commission decided to screw Olivia Chow for her stupid antics at the boundary hearings:

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/on/now/reports/19map-REPO-CITY-OF-TORONTO.pdf

Now there's Spadina-Fort York and the stupid riding of University-Rosedale.  The TC/Mount Pleasant and St. Paul's/Trinity-Spadina splits made far more sense. 

Yup, the proposal made more sense (except dividing the Church-Wellesley neighbourhood) to me too.

But, for Olivia remember she wanted (i believe so) a Harbourfront communities focused riding. she fought to have the areas north of Bloor street (annex neighbourhood) kept as one community.
She's played it cool not committing to running for mayor; like i said she'd win pretty safely Spadina-Fort York and i think she'd even eek out a win in University-Rosedale. It combined the NDP heavy polls around the University with the Liberal polls of Rosedale, with no Bob Rae and with Olivia's high profile i think she'd win.
I suspect these ridings will change at the next boundary commission anyway, since the DT/waterfront area is one of the fastest growing neighbourhoods. They expect 50,000 or more to be in the core within 10 years.

[Wilfred Day]

We will be moving to Ottawa South in a month, and our votes are going to be worth 2/3 of a vote of someone in Stittsville or Riverside South

And your vote will be worth 86% of a vote in Toronto, where six Toronto voters equal seven Ottawa South voters, since Ottawa South has 121,894 residents while Toronto's 25 ridings have an average of 104,602, the lowest being Spadina—Fort York with 82,480 and Don Valley East with 93,007.

A small brag: the Ontario Boundaries Commission's final Report is almost exactly, in the 12 ridings from Carleton Place to Pickering, what I submitted to them last November 12 in Cobourg. I was mainly there to support Northumberland County's presentation of a Northumberland--Pine Ridge plan which the Commission largely adopted, but I also suggested how this could be accommodated in Durham Region to the west and mid-eastern Ontario to the East. They did precisely what I suggested for Durham Region. In mid-eastern Ontario I cannot claim as much credit since I gave them nine options and they were bound to choose one of them: they chose my Plan D.

*Belleville was oddly split in half, for a city its size seems odd, but looks like most of the urban city is in Bay of Quinte, the rest is in Hastings.

Hastings—Lennox and Addington would have been 84,218 residents (20.7% under quotient), without adding the rural portion of Belleville (the former Township of Thurlow, now Thurlow Ward) which has 8,310 residents.

[Hatman 🍁]

Was it your call to name the riding Northumberland-Pine Ridge? It's a cute name. I'm not so sure about "Bay of Quinte" though. Just "Quinte" would have been fine, or the more boring "Prince Edward--Hastings"

[Hatman 🍁]

I just read your comments on Facebook. Interesting that the area used to be called Newcastle District.

[Wilfred Day]

Was it your call to name the riding Northumberland-Pine Ridge? It's a cute name.

It was a consensus name. The County, the local Liberals and NDP, and everyone else suggested it. (Even Rick Norlock stepped down from neutrality at the hearing itself and joined the consensus.)

To quote my presentation (which proposed including Cavan-Monaghan as the other presentations did, and the Commission does not explain why they left Cavan-Monaghan with Kawartha Lakes) "The name “Pine Ridge” is a well-known regional name in both Clarke and Cavan-Monaghan. They are both served by the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board. They used to be served by the Great Pine Ridge Tourist Council. The name NORTHUMBERLAND—PINE RIDGE for this electoral district would be widely accepted, and is recommended by the County of Northumberland." (I failed to mention the Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit, The Great Pine Ridge Snowmobile Association, and the Pine Ridge Hiking Club.)

I just read your comments on Facebook. Interesting that the area used to be called Newcastle District.

The Newcastle District was created in 1802, incorporating the counties of Northumberland and Durham. When the lands further north were acquired from the First Nations in 1816-17, they were included in the Newcastle District until they became the District of Colborne in 1838, with its courthouse in Peterborough. We heritage towns on the lakeshore are a generation older than Peterborough. For example, St. Mark’s Church in Port Hope where Vincent Massey was buried was built in 1822. (He was the first Canadian Governor-General and had a private estate, Batterwood, in Port Hope; his great-grandfather Daniel Massey was one of the village of Newcastle’s famous residents, who in 1847 opened his workshop building farm implements, which became the Massey-Harris Company, later Massey-Ferguson. One of the many ties between Clarke Township, which includes the village of Newcastle, and Port Hope.)

[Hatman 🍁]

I seem to recall Clarke has historically been separated from the rest of Clarington in terms of what riding it's been in. I think it first joined in the 1980s. So while it may all be one municipality now, there is an historical basis to splitting it off.

[King of Kensington]

Yup, the proposal made more sense (except dividing the Church-Wellesley neighbourhood) to me too.

But, for Olivia remember she wanted (i believe so) a Harbourfront communities focused riding. she fought to have the areas north of Bloor street (annex neighbourhood) kept as one community.
She's played it cool not committing to running for mayor; like i said she'd win pretty safely Spadina-Fort York and i think she'd even eek out a win in University-Rosedale. It combined the NDP heavy polls around the University with the Liberal polls of Rosedale, with no Bob Rae and with Olivia's high profile i think she'd win.
I suspect these ridings will change at the next boundary commission anyway, since the DT/waterfront area is one of the fastest growing neighbourhoods. They expect 50,000 or more to be in the core within 10 years.

In other words, be careful what you wish for: you just might get it!

[Smid]

Yup, the proposal made more sense (except dividing the Church-Wellesley neighbourhood) to me too.

But, for Olivia remember she wanted (i believe so) a Harbourfront communities focused riding. she fought to have the areas north of Bloor street (annex neighbourhood) kept as one community.
She's played it cool not committing to running for mayor; like i said she'd win pretty safely Spadina-Fort York and i think she'd even eek out a win in University-Rosedale. It combined the NDP heavy polls around the University with the Liberal polls of Rosedale, with no Bob Rae and with Olivia's high profile i think she'd win.
I suspect these ridings will change at the next boundary commission anyway, since the DT/waterfront area is one of the fastest growing neighbourhoods. They expect 50,000 or more to be in the core within 10 years.

In other words, be careful what you wish for: you just might get it!

Like the NDP pushing for rurban ridings in Saskatchewan last redistribution.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yup, the proposal made more sense (except dividing the Church-Wellesley neighbourhood) to me too.

But, for Olivia remember she wanted (i believe so) a Harbourfront communities focused riding. she fought to have the areas north of Bloor street (annex neighbourhood) kept as one community.
She's played it cool not committing to running for mayor; like i said she'd win pretty safely Spadina-Fort York and i think she'd even eek out a win in University-Rosedale. It combined the NDP heavy polls around the University with the Liberal polls of Rosedale, with no Bob Rae and with Olivia's high profile i think she'd win.
I suspect these ridings will change at the next boundary commission anyway, since the DT/waterfront area is one of the fastest growing neighbourhoods. They expect 50,000 or more to be in the core within 10 years.

In other words, be careful what you wish for: you just might get it!

Like the NDP pushing for rurban ridings in Saskatchewan last redistribution.

It was 2 redistributions ago, actually. Last time though we didn't realize how bad it would be.

[King of Kensington]

Yes, the rurban Sask. ridings were an absolutely STUPID thing for the NDP to back.

As for Olivia, one perhaps could say she would have won Spadina-Fort York easily.  That's true, but she would have also won the previously proposed Trinity-Spadina south of Bloor easily as well and it didn't stop the Trinity-Spadina NDP from freaking out about it and wanting to get rid of "condos" instead.  And *if* she runs for MP again, it seems to me that she'd rather represent the northern half of T-S. 

And Rosario Marchese...who barely squeaked through last time on a more favorable riding, is screwed in either of these proposed ridings. 

[DL]

Bear in mind that these proposed federal boundaries won't be used for an Ontario provincial election until the one after the next one - in all likelihood. It is not automatic for the Ontario boundaries to inherit the federal boundaries - the Ontario government has to decide to do it and pass legislation. So, IF Rosario Marchese runs and wins again in an election expected in 2013/2014 in the existing Trinity-Spadina dn IF he decides to run again in the election after that likely in 2017 or even 2018 - then he would have to decide where to run...but he'll be kinda old by then and it will probably be time to pass the torch regardless.

[adma]

*Belleville was oddly split in half, for a city its size seems odd, but looks like most of the urban city is in Bay of Quinte, the rest is in Hastings.

Hastings—Lennox and Addington would have been 84,218 residents (20.7% under quotient), without adding the rural portion of Belleville (the former Township of Thurlow, now Thurlow Ward) which has 8,310 residents.

Exactly; so it isn't really a "splitting in half", since the "split" part was the mega-amalgamated rural portion that didn't really have business being part of Belleville in the first place...

[toaster]

Hmm.  What were Charlie Angus and Carol Hughes doing?  It fairness, it really sucks for the people of Northern Ontario, their population trends are similar to Manitoba and Sask., but because they happen to be in a province with exponential growth in the other areas, they loose ridings.  In reality, Northern Ontario is only 10 ridings.  Even if each riding was 20,000 under quota, that would only be 200 000 people to be made up in the other 111 ridings, doesn't even work out to be 2 thousand per riding.  So stop saying "The reason Ottawa South has 120k is because of Northern Ontario".  It's really isn't.

[MaxQue]

Carol Hugues:
The municipal association of the Highway 11 communities wrote in a letter they wanted to move from Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing to Timmins-James Bay. When she learned that at the North Bay hearings, she said than the association would sent a contrary request in the following days, which happened. They suspect she pressured the association in renouncing their former request.

As for Charlie Angus, he had a wierd definition of interest community which he seemed to use to keep his current riding without change.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm.  What were Charlie Angus and Carol Hughes doing?  It fairness, it really sucks for the people of Northern Ontario, their population trends are similar to Manitoba and Sask., but because they happen to be in a province with exponential growth in the other areas, they loose ridings.  In reality, Northern Ontario is only 10 ridings.  Even if each riding was 20,000 under quota, that would only be 200 000 people to be made up in the other 111 ridings, doesn't even work out to be 2 thousand per riding.  So stop saying "The reason Ottawa South has 120k is because of Northern Ontario".  It's really isn't.

Correct, Ottawa South has 120K because the commission didn't care that the neighbouring riding of Rideau-Carleton had 90,000. Simple fix would be to move Blossom Park into Rideau-Carleton. Of course, the area is arguably more aligned with the rest of Ottawa South, and would be somewhat isolated from the rest of Rideau-Carleton, but Blossom Park is more suburban (save for a few areas of lower income housing) than the rest of Ottawa South, and I think would be a good fit in Rideau-Carleton (read: it's more Conservative than the rest of Ottawa South).  Blossom Park has about 10,000 people, so it would be a good switch.

[toaster]

Carol Hugues:
The municipal association of the Highway 11 communities wrote in a letter they wanted to move from Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing to Timmins-James Bay. When she learned that at the North Bay hearings, she said than the association would sent a contrary request in the following days, which happened. They suspect she pressured the association in renouncing their former request.

As for Charlie Angus, he had a wierd definition of interest community which he seemed to use to keep his current riding without change.

Well for Charlie regardless of any change or not, he is likely to keep his seat, so I trust he really was fighting for "community of interests".

As for Carol Hughes, that does seem fishy.  People of Kap and Hearst definitly identify more with Timmins than with Manitoulin Island or Algoma, so I understand why they'd want to change.  I think the problem was that it made Timmins James Bay too big (95k) for such a huge geographic riding.  Again, I would have preferred a riding of Timmins with Kap, Hearst, Cochrane, and New Liskard together, and merge Kenora with the James Bay coast for a Far North riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Carol Hugues:
The municipal association of the Highway 11 communities wrote in a letter they wanted to move from Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing to Timmins-James Bay. When she learned that at the North Bay hearings, she said than the association would sent a contrary request in the following days, which happened. They suspect she pressured the association in renouncing their former request.

As for Charlie Angus, he had a wierd definition of interest community which he seemed to use to keep his current riding without change.

Well for Charlie regardless of any change or not, he is likely to keep his seat, so I trust he really was fighting for "community of interests".

As for Carol Hughes, that does seem fishy.  People of Kap and Hearst definitly identify more with Timmins than with Manitoulin Island or Algoma, so I understand why they'd want to change.  I think the problem was that it made Timmins James Bay too big (95k) for such a huge geographic riding.  Again, I would have preferred a riding of Timmins with Kap, Hearst, Cochrane, and New Liskard together, and merge Kenora with the James Bay coast for a Far North riding.

Wouldn't that make sense? The James Bay area is already in Kenora District. I guess the issue is that Moose Factory / Moosonnee are lined up by rail to Cochrane District, and not the rest of Kenora District.

[Philly D.]

In Quebec the three new ridings seem to be Sainte-Rose/Blainville (Marc-Aurele-Fortin goes), Mirabel and Montarville/LeMoyne (St-Bruno--St-Hubert goes as well). They would have gone comfortably NDP last time. They would also hold Charlevoix-Montmorency, Louis-Saint-Laurent, Honore-Mercier, Chicoutimi and Jonquiere (but not by very much).
However, they do not take anything from the other parties, and NDG-Westmount is now NDP-bomb-proof. The closest seat becomes Levis-Lotbiniere, where Jacques Gourde's majority is slashed to about 554. In addition, they pay in the eastern part of the province. Riviere-du-Loup--Montmagny, while maintained, adds the non-Beauce part of the MRC of Les Etchemins and they lose it to the Conservatives by about 1200. Meanwhile, in Gaspesie, switching the Avignon and Haute-Gaspesie MRC between the two ridings allows the Bloc to win both of them -- in fact without Avignon MRC I think they lost that one. Meanwhile, the Liberals gain Ahuntsic-Cartierville. In sum this is not a great map for the NDP.

[Benj]

In Quebec the three new ridings seem to be Sainte-Rose/Blainville (Marc-Aurele-Fortin goes), Mirabel and Montarville/LeMoyne (St-Bruno--St-Hubert goes as well). They would have gone comfortably NDP last time. They would also hold Charlevoix-Montmorency, Louis-Saint-Laurent, Honore-Mercier, Chicoutimi and Jonquiere (but not by very much).
However, they do not take anything from the other parties, and NDG-Westmount is now NDP-bomb-proof. The closest seat becomes Levis-Lotbiniere, where Jacques Gourde's majority is slashed to about 554. In addition, they pay in the eastern part of the province. Riviere-du-Loup--Montmagny, while maintained, adds the non-Beauce part of the MRC of Les Etchemins and they lose it to the Conservatives by about 1200. Meanwhile, in Gaspesie, switching the Avignon and Haute-Gaspesie MRC between the two ridings allows the Bloc to win both of them -- in fact without Avignon MRC I think they lost that one. Meanwhile, the Liberals gain Ahuntsic-Cartierville. In sum this is not a great map for the NDP.

Mostly seems like noise. The changes in Gaspesie are entirely due to tactical confusion dependent on riding boundaries. The overall changes are NDP +2, Con +1, Lib +1, Bloc -1. Hard to call that bad for the NDP.

[DL]

The new Ahuntsic-Cartierville riding will create some interesting dynamics. Maria Mourani against all odds was one of the four BQ survivors thanks to an almost perfect three way split with the Libs and NDP - but the BQ is long term decline PLUS under the new map - Ahuntsic loses a slice in the east that is solidly BQ and gain Cartierville in the west where BQ support is virtually nil. The chances of Mourani being able to win that seat as a Bloquiste are non-existent. Will she quit? will she parachute to a totally different riding that is more francophone? while she beg the NDP to take her in? Also, assuming a much weaker BQ in 2015 and possibly no incumbent running again in that seat - what happens to the still significant BQ vote? My hunch is that in 2015 Ahuntsic-Cartierville will be a big Liberal/NDP showdown and the BQ vote will evaporate to the NDP's benefit.