Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[minionofmidas]

That Haliburton-Uxbridge subrural thing looks very odd.

Also, what's with the donut around Hamilton?

[Hatman 🍁]

Their write up is up:

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=on&dir=now/proposals&document=index&lang=e

[Holmes]

Scarborough-Rouge River is clearly no more.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I like the way they've done Toronto; the boundaries are mostly pretty natural. Both St. Paul's and Toronto Centre look winnable for the NDP to me.

That Haliburton-Uxbridge subrural thing looks very odd.

It's basically a rural riding; suburbia in Durham is still mostly out along the lake.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This makes sense I think; it's the rural parts of the "City" of Hamilton - the old A-D-F-W was a weird rurban riding.

Scarborough-Rouge River is clearly no more.

If you look at the 2011 poll map for Pickering-Scarborough East, though, the Scarborough part off the lake is mostly somewhat similar areas that voted for the Liberal incumbent McTeague. Barring a Liberal revival I think Sitsebaiesan should be able to pick up these areas.

I totally agree Earl about keeping the overpopulated ridings. Essex is particularly weird - at least with Kingston or Guelph you can kind of see the logic of keeping one city as a riding.

[King of Kensington]

A few comments on the Toronto map.  I think it looks good.

- Mount Pleasant looks like just about the safest Liberal riding in Canada at this point...Bob Rae would definitely run there if he runs again. 

- Church and Wellesley is cut in half between TC and Mount Pleasant, diluting its political influence.  Would it be possible to have a minor adjustment on the boundary?

- Why change the name of "Don Valley West" to "Toronto North"?

[Hatman 🍁]

"Nepean-Carleton" has 91,000 people. WTF. Change the name, change boundaries. It can afford to take in 10,000 people from Ottawa South I think.

[DL]

"Nepean-Carleton" has 91,000 people. WTF. Change the name, change boundaries. It can afford to take in 10,000 people from Ottawa South I think.

I suspcet that while its a bit under populated right now, the commission has looked at projections that say that riding is likely to grow a lot over the next ten years.

[Hatman 🍁]

"Nepean-Carleton" has 91,000 people. WTF. Change the name, change boundaries. It can afford to take in 10,000 people from Ottawa South I think.

I suspcet that while its a bit under populated right now, the commission has looked at projections that say that riding is likely to grow a lot over the next ten years.

The riding has some fast growing exurban areas, but is mostly rural. (and I can foresee that in the future, people will be less inclined to move to exurban communities as gas prices go up). Nepean is the proposed riding that is experiencing the most growth, with Barrhaven exploding. I can accept the Kanata riding being under populated (after all, a near identical riding was in my proposal), but I cannot accept the way under populated riding of Nepean-Carleton, especially when neighbouring Ottawa South is so large.

[toaster]

How Nepean-Carleton can have the a smaller population than the largest geographical riding without special consideration, Timmins-Cochrane-James Bay, is ludicrous.

[mileslunn]

On the whole not exactly good for the NDP, although I wouldn't say it totally favours the Tories.  If the Liberals do a bit better than the last election it could work in their favour too.  Kitchener Centre and Waterloo both look more favourable to the Liberals and also Mississauga seems to be a mix with Mississauga South and Mississauga-Erin Mills being more favourable for the Conservatives but Mississauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga Centre, and Mississauga North look more favourable for the Liberals.  I agree neither of the new ridings taking in Oshawa look very good for the NDP.  As for Welland it is true both would have gone Tory in the last election, though I would say Malcolm Allen would probably be best to run in Welland-Fort Erie as that is at least winneable albeit an uphill battle.  Fort Erie is generally a Tory stronghold, but of the three municipalities in the current riding of Niagara Falls, it is probably the most NDP friendly while Wainfleet is already part of riding so even with its strong Conservative support, the NDP can still win.  Off course Niagara West is a solid Tory riding.  As for Ottawa and Hamilton, the re-distribution makes some sense as they seemed to have tried to separate the suburban from rural parts.

[trebor204]

I came across this link

http://www.joeycoleman.ca/hamilton-local-politics/hamiltons-new-federal-provincial-ridings-unveiled/

[LastVoter]

Earl when can we expect an entry on your blog for the Ontario gerry?

[Hatman 🍁]

Earl when can we expect an entry on your blog for the Ontario gerry?

In September. Working on some Quebec stuff and the by-elections.

[Wilfred Day]

Just starting to analyze it.

First problem: after deducting 832,014 people given 10 northern ridings, the other 111 ridings have 12,019,807 people. That means the "southern quotient" (which only the Newfoundland and Labrador Commission was brave enough to spell out) is actually 108,287. But Toronto, with 2,615,060 people, which is 24.149 "southern quotients," somehow gets 25 ridings.

This results in many other ridings being oversized, notably:
Essex 20.00% over quotient
Windsor West 12.01% over quotient
Cambridge 19.33% over quotient
Guelph 14.57% over quotient
Kingston and the Islands 17.9% over quotient
Peterborough 11.98% over quotient

This in turn results in the bizarre Haliburton—Uxbridge, which unites 16,645 people in Toronto’s Census Metropolitan area (south Uxbridge), 33,008 people in exurban Scugog and Brock; bypassing Lindsay, 34,390 people in the rural half of Kawartha Lakes (Bobcaygeon has 3,533 people, Fenelon Falls has 2,040), 17,026 people in Haliburton County, and 7,394 in north Peterborough County.

The rest of the leftover bits are united in Kawartha Lakes—Port Hope—Cobourg: 45,435 people in West Northumberland, plus 38,824 people in southeast Kawartha Lakes (20,354 of whom are in Lindsay), and to tie them together we have 16,250 people in the former Clarke Township now part of Clarington in Durham Region, and 8,601 in Cavan-Monaghan in Peterborough County.

Clarington has 84,548 residents and would have expected to form the core of a single riding. No, it is chopped into three parts in three different ridings.

This will not be well received.

[lilTommy]

Is Clarington that "united"?, its really just a large geographic municipality made up of small towns/townships like bowmanville, newcastle, courtice... i'm not sure there is going to be huge upset unless they split the towns themselves which i don't think they did. I could be wrong, and i'm not saying this riding is any good. there are a few oddities that look like "we-have-leftovers-throw-them-all-together" like Kitchener South - North Dumfries - Brant

NO - the new Nickel Belt-Temiskaming becomes more competitive for the tories i suspect, infact you would have two incumbents running... Do people of greater sudbury accept the fact they are now lumped with Algoma?

SW - odd that they kept Essex, WW over.. they are slow growing(or decreasing population) so that might play a part.

TO - Hatman, eerie how similar their proposal is eh.... I don't like the name Toronto North, one its not IN northern toronto, not the old city or the new amalgamated one. Don Valley West would still be the best name; i think Rosedale-Mount Pleasant is more fitting then just MP but meh, and never liked ToCentre as a name but at least its fitting, ToNorth is just bad. Rathika has a tough choice to make now, run in ScarNorth which had the best tory polls and had her best polls moved to ScarEast or run in ScarbEast where the NDP one only three polls on the scar side and get herself into a threeway battle rather then a head-to-head in scarNorth

[Hatman 🍁]

The only good thing for the NDP is that Toronto Centre becomes winnable.

Scarborough should never have been divided like that. Isn't there like a zoo and woods separating the two parts of Scarborough East? Ridiculous. Reminds me of Calgary McCall being divided by the airport.

[lilTommy]

The only good thing for the NDP is that Toronto Centre becomes winnable.

Scarborough should never have been divided like that. Isn't there like a zoo and woods separating the two parts of Scarborough East? Ridiculous. Reminds me of Calgary McCall being divided by the airport.

Almost, the zoo is in that far north east corner, the woods of the rouge river valley is all along the eastern border too. From what i can see there is residential/commercial all around Sheppard ave, so i think the bigger issue is that the 401 cuts the riding in two which is ugly. its the only riding other then Etobicoke North where huge concrete mess cuts the riding. The Don Valley expressway cuts DVE and DVN up, DVE is basically split in two by the thing.. big deal? maybe not since its pretty streetlevel accessible so seems less like the 401.

[Hatman 🍁]

I am liking the new Nipissing riding. They have added some area from Parry Sound-Muskoka where my cottage is, which makes a lot of sense because that area has more in common with North Bay than the rest of PSM. I wouldn't even suggest a name change since much of the area bounds Lake Nipissing except for South River...

Further south, I would suggest renaming the Barrie ridings to Barrie-Innisfil and Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte. Or perhaps the shorter name of Kempenfelt?

Anyways, there's a lot of naming issues I have with this proposal. They went the opposite way of Quebec. Quebec thought too hard about changing things, while Ontario didn't think at all. Simcoe--Grey and Nepean--Carleton need to have their name changed (and will for sure). Nepean isn't in NC and the new Simcoe-Grey doesnt contain any of Grey. NC should be re-named Rideau-Carleton (or Ottawa-Carleton, Carleton or Carleton South). SG should be renamed Simcoe-Dufferin or Simcoe-Mulmur or Simcoe West-Mulmur/Dufferin.

[Wilfred Day]

. . . the bizarre Haliburton—Uxbridge, which unites 16,645 people in Toronto’s Census Metropolitan area (south Uxbridge), 33,008 people in exurban Scugog and Brock; bypassing Lindsay, 34,390 people in the rural half of Kawartha Lakes (Bobcaygeon has 3,533 people, Fenelon Falls has 2,040), 17,026 people in Haliburton County, and 7,394 in north Peterborough County.

I'd love to see the Boundaries Commission make the drive from from one end of this riding (Uxbridge) to the other (Cardiff). From Uxbridge up Highway 12 to Beaverton, along Glenarm Road to Fenelon Falls and continuing on to Bobcaygeon, up 121 to Minden, and on through Haliburton to Cardiff. Only 205 km, a mere 3 hours and 4 minutes drive says Mapquest.  Okay, if you go by highway 45 to Coboconk and on through Kinmount you could get to Cardiff in "only" 2 hours 23 minutes, 165 km, by bypassing every population centre east of Beaverton.

[DL]

NO - the new Nickel Belt-Temiskaming becomes more competitive for the tories i suspect, infact you would have two incumbents running...

I doubt it...the Tory MP for Nipissing-Timiskaming who won by just 18 votes would obviously run in the new riding of Nipissing which is now much more solidly Tory, rather than run against an NDP incumbent from Nickel Belt.

[Hatman 🍁]

NO - the new Nickel Belt-Temiskaming becomes more competitive for the tories i suspect, infact you would have two incumbents running...

I doubt it...the Tory MP for Nipissing-Timiskaming who won by just 18 votes would obviously run in the new riding of Nipissing which is now much more solidly Tory, rather than run against an NDP incumbent from Nickel Belt.

Correct. Remember, the Timiskaming area is fairly NDP (look at it provincially). The new area added to Nipissing (where my cottage is) is very Tory. It is very very WASPy. Probably one of the most Protestant parts of the province.

[MaxQue]

NO - the new Nickel Belt-Temiskaming becomes more competitive for the tories i suspect, infact you would have two incumbents running...

I doubt it...the Tory MP for Nipissing-Timiskaming who won by just 18 votes would obviously run in the new riding of Nipissing which is now much more solidly Tory, rather than run against an NDP incumbent from Nickel Belt.

Correct. Remember, the Timiskaming area is fairly NDP (look at it provincially). The new area added to Nipissing (where my cottage is) is very Tory. It is very very WASPy. Probably one of the most Protestant parts of the province.

The Timiskaming area is clearly northern and follow Northern voting pattern. The biggest city, Timiscaming Shores, made by the merger of New Liskeard, Haileybury and Cobalt. Obviously, mining is pretty big in that area and it's much more silimar to Kirkland Lake than it is with North Bay.

For a previous post, problem with Oro-Medonte, Springwater and names like that are they are townships names. There, everybody uses the name of their village, not the township (I have family in that area, in Essa township.), so I know a bit about that area despite being far from Abitibi.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok, what about Barrie-Kempenfelt? Surely "Barrie North" is ridiculous.

[MaxQue]

Ok, what about Barrie-Kempenfelt? Surely "Barrie North" is ridiculous.

I agree than "Barrie North" is a strange name. The problem with Kempenfelt is than it could describe both Barrie North and Barrie South.

[Wilfred Day]

Is Clarington that "united"?, its really just a large geographic municipality made up of small towns/townships like bowmanville, newcastle, courtice... i'm not sure there is going to be huge upset unless they split the towns themselves which i don't think they did.

They split Courtice. Right across the middle of it. The riding boundary runs right past the high school which is in the centre of Courtice.