VA: Public Policy Polling: Obama leads all Republicans

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Virginia President by Public Policy Polling on 2011-12-13

Summary: D: 50%, R: 43%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

Here's the latest Newt vs. Obama map:

[Tender Branson]

If Gingrich would fall behind Obama in an AZ poll, Obama would be the first Democrat since 1964 to win a chain of states from the East Coast to the West Coast against the current GOP frontrunner ...

[Reds4]

This surprises me.. I would have expected Obama to be up a couple points, but 6 or 7 consistently seems a little high. Virginia must just be continuing to trend heavily to the democrats.

[colincb]

It surprises me too as the last 4 polls (none by PPP) had Romney up by small margins.  The unfavorables for Romney and Gingrich are eye opening:

"Romney (33/52) and Gingrich (31/55) are both seen negatively by a majority of voters in the state"

[Oakvale]

Viriginia's consistently been a bright spot for Obama. Good to see.

[Lief 🗽]

It's looking like 2012 might turn out to be a good year after all.

[CaDan]

PPP deliberately generates poll numbers that look much better for Democrats until election time gets a lot closer, then they correct the poll numbers to save face.

Remember, PPP is nothing more than a Democrat propaganda outfit. Hence the tweens here who worship it.

[Lief 🗽]

PPP deliberately generates poll numbers that look much better for Democrats until election time gets a lot closer, then they correct the poll numbers to save face.

Remember, PPP is nothing more than a Democrat propaganda outfit. Hence the tweens here who worship it.

[Oakvale]

PPP deliberately generates poll numbers that look much better for Democrats until election time gets a lot closer, then they correct the poll numbers to save face.

Remember, PPP is nothing more than a Democrat propaganda outfit. Hence the tweens here who worship it.

Feel free to go ahead and post some actual evidence for this. I won't hold my breath.

[Landslide Lyndon]

PPP deliberately generates poll numbers that look much better for Democrats until election time gets a lot closer, then they correct the poll numbers to save face.

Remember, PPP is nothing more than a Democrat propaganda outfit. Hence the tweens here who worship it.

[pbrower2a]

PPP deliberately generates poll numbers that look much better for Democrats until election time gets a lot closer, then they correct the poll numbers to save face.

Remember, PPP is nothing more than a Democrat propaganda outfit. Hence the tweens here who worship it.

You are an ignoramus. 

PPP may be a Democratic firm, but its numbers tended to look better for Republicans.

 

[CaDan]

No Paulie, you are merely projecting again, as are the leftist tweens here.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Good news for the President

[mondale84]

No Paulie, you are merely projecting again, as are the leftist tweens here.

You're an idiot.

[Oakvale]

No Paulie, you are merely projecting again, as are the leftist tweens here.

Dan, do you have any evidence to bak up your asssertion in your previous post? Genuinely interested. *cough*

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Here's the latest Newt vs. Obama map:

Are the Democrats... dare I say it... winning the SOUTH back?

Also, which polls showed Obama beating Newt in Kentucky and Newt beating Obama in Ohio?  If Obama's going to carry Kentucky, he'll almost certainly take Ohio, as well.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Are the Democrats... dare I say it... winning the SOUTH back?

Against this guy:

[pbrower2a]

No Paulie, you are merely projecting again, as are the leftist tweens here.

You're an idiot.

Here's how I deal with that sort of stuff:

This user is currently ignored.

As Sir Winston Churchill said, "A fanatic is someone who won't change his mind and won't change the subject".

Polling is far from perfect, and it may be better described as a snapshot of the time as prophecy. One can say this of Virginia:

1. The state is critical to the victory of any Republican nominee; in view of Colorado seeming to slop away from the GOP,  any Republican who loses Virginia must win all three of these states to have a chance to win against President Obama -- Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  Those three states with 18 to 29 electoral votes are different enough that there is no easy way in which to win all three at once. Virginia isn't quite in this class of states for electoral clout.

2. This may be a surprise, but no Republican has ever won the Presidency since 1924 without winning Virginia. How long ago was that? In 1924 Virginia still had Confederate veterans not yet in their eighties.

3. As it is, President Obama looks as if he is in the position that he was in in the early part of September 2008 (soon after the Republican National Convention) in which he had enough states locked up that the Republican nominee would have to win a bunch of states best described as 50/50 propositions. Ruling out Indiana (because he wasn't going to win Indiana without also winning Ohio) and North Carolina (because he wasn't going to win North Carolina without also winning Virginia) the Republican had to win all of Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia to have a chance of winning the Presidency. The Republican nominee had six even chances of losing the election -- and one chance in 128 of winning. Those states were different enough and scattered enough that there was no special appeal that could easily satisfy majorities in all of those states, and there was no way of easily campaigning in them all.

The states in question have changed. Nevada no longer makes a difference, and the President has solidified Colorado enough to compensate for a gain of electoral votes by "red" states. So you add Arizona and North Carolina, and the prospects look about as bad for any Republican nominee.

As I see it, the eventual Republican nominee looks to be putting out one fire after another in one "must win" state after another in a grueling contest.  Such will be a grueling effort.       

 

[pbrower2a]

Here's the latest Newt vs. Obama map:

I suspect that the Survey USA poll showing President Obama beating newt Gingrich in Kansas is a misprint -- most likely a transposition error.

[CaDan]

Sorry Paulie, but you are transparent. If you truly wanted to ignore me, you would have done it without an announcement.

Instead, you want to wallow in your ignorance and pretend like you are taking some sort of high ground, when in reality you have done nothing of the sort.

[SPQR]

No Paulie, you are merely projecting again, as are the leftist tweens here.

Still waiting for numbers.

[Tender Branson]

Also, which polls showed Obama beating Newt in Kentucky and Newt beating Obama in Ohio?  If Obama's going to carry Kentucky, he'll almost certainly take Ohio, as well.

PPP had Obama ahead of Newt by 1 in their last KY poll, which was a poll of likely 2011 voters in the Governor race. Because many Republicans stayed at home (Williams was a joke candidate), you should treat this poll with a ton of salt.

Newt led Obama by 1 in the latest Quinnipiac Ohio poll.

You should probably also take the KS and TX poll with a ton of salt.

Everything else seems correct. We'll have to wait for future SC polls though to see if the state's really becoming closer ...

[Tender Branson]

Here's the latest Newt vs. Obama map:

I suspect that the Survey USA poll showing President Obama beating newt Gingrich in Kansas is a misprint -- most likely a transposition error.

It's not a misprint.

Otherwise all the crosstabs would have to be wrong as well, and they are not.

It's most likely just a big outlier.

[backtored]

While PPP's methodology, and early polling, more generally, are hardly anything for Obama to shake his pom-poms about, I do think that the GOP should take this and an earlier Ohio PPP poll seriously.  I've never believed that Colorado was very winnable for Obama, but I've always thought that Ohio and Virginia could be the two sore spots that cost Republicans the election.  That goes contrary to the so-called wisdom of the so-called experts, but the GOP will lose the election if they believe that Ohio and Virginia are the easy-wins and then they go about conceding Colorado while trying to pick up the unwinnable pipedream that is Pennsylvania.

Colorado goes GOP, Ohio does not, if the election is today.  And that is, of course, very worrisome for Republicans like me, even though I'm a Colorado Republican.