IA PrimR: Public Policy Polling: Ron Paul almost 1st

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Iowa President by Public Policy Polling on 2011-12-13

Summary:

Gingrich:	22%
Paul:	21%
Romney:	16%
Bachmann:	11%
Perry:	9%
Santorum:	8%
Other:	6%
Undecided:	7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Landslide Lyndon]

So much for all that Perry buzz.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

[Meeker]

If either Perry/Bachmann/Santorum dropped then Newt would be up by 10. They're killing him.

[Eraserhead]

This poll must be making Mitt's camp very happy. Paul knocks Gingrich down in Iowa and then Romney finishes him off in New Hampshire.

[Politico]

This poll must be making Mitt's camp very happy. Paul knocks Gingrich down in Iowa and then Romney finishes him off in New Hampshire.

Yep. And then Paul and Romney tug on one for the rest of the primaries until Romney has an enormous amount of delegates and nobody left is contending.

[Reginald]

God, Paul winning Iowa and the ensuing aftermath among Paultards would be so entertaining. Too bad the GOP would never let this happen.

[Tender Branson]

ARG had a pretty accurate final Iowa poll 4 years ago. They also polled Iowa a lot in 2007.

In Mid-December 2007, Paul only had 5% support and 5-8% support right before the caucus. He ended up with 10%. So I would say he has a damn good chance to win this, unless Santorum really gains in the final weeks ...

[RI]

Even if Paul wins Iowa, Gingrich could still easily take South Carolina and Florida.

[Eraserhead]

Paul winning Iowa would easily make for one the best nights ever on here. Perhaps even better than a Cain victory night would have been.

Sadly, I won't be on much that night because I'm going to an Iowa gathering of sorts. That gathering will feature a live Paultard and beer though, so that should be very entertaining in itself.

[Bull Moose Base]

If either Perry/Bachmann/Santorum dropped then Newt would be up by 10. They're killing him.

I think you're mixing up cause and effect.  I think they're only so high because they're grabbing pollers who are fleeing Newt as he gets beaten up by conservative pundits and attack ads and need some destination.  And I think people may have wildly misinterpreted the effect of the last debate that was deemed to be a coup for Newt.  That assessment came from pundits who already knew about Newt's personal life but probably a lot of Republicans had no idea until they watched that debate.

[Politico]

If either Perry/Bachmann/Santorum dropped then Newt would be up by 10. They're killing him.

I think you're mixing up cause and effect.  I think they're only so high because they're grabbing pollers who are fleeing Newt as he gets beaten up by conservative pundits and attack ads and need some destination.  And I think people may have wildly misinterpreted the effect of the last debate that was deemed to be a coup for Newt.  That assessment came from pundits who already knew about Newt's personal life but probably a lot of Republicans had no idea until they watched that debate.

From what I have heard, Romney's comment on Gingrich's support of colonizing the moon was a big hit on Gingrich, and Perry's line about somebody cheating on their spouse will cheat on their business associate had an impact too.

Imagine what is going to happen in the next debate when somebody asks Gingrich if Nancy Pelosi gave him the idea of putting mirrors in outerspace to light our highways, or if Ron Paul starts ranting and raving about Gingrich's $300,000 ethics violation fine like he has in his most recent ads:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hRdqGKA782A

[Bull Moose Base]

Taking a closer look, it looks like what's really driving Paul's surge is Occupy Wall Street.  Not kidding.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Taking a closer look, it looks like what's really driving Paul's surge is Occupy Wall Street.  Not kidding.

He's got the same coalition of supporters Barack Obama had.

[Mehmentum]

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My god.  Paul might actually win and become the next flavor of the month.

[Roemerista]

ARG had a pretty accurate final Iowa poll 4 years ago. They also polled Iowa a lot in 2007.

In Mid-December 2007, Paul only had 5% support and 5-8% support right before the caucus. He ended up with 10%. So I would say he has a damn good chance to win this, unless Santorum really gains in the final weeks ...

Seriously, I suspect Paul's support is greater than traditional polling would indicate. After all, a sizable group of Paul voters are probably "non-traditional" but more importantly, he attracts the folks who probably are a bit, how do I say, paranoid?

[cavalcade]

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Paul was almost certainly ahead the last night of their polling.

[Reluctant Republican]

I'm liking the numbers who say they're certain to vote for the candidate they're currently backing. Paul's leading there pretty significantly.

Anyway, good news in my view. I'm hoping for a win in Iowa and at least a close second in New Hampshire. Even if Paul does not win the nomination, I'd at least like him to have an impact on the results.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

ARG had a pretty accurate final Iowa poll 4 years ago. They also polled Iowa a lot in 2007.

In Mid-December 2007, Paul only had 5% support and 5-8% support right before the caucus. He ended up with 10%. So I would say he has a damn good chance to win this, unless Santorum really gains in the final weeks ...

Seriously, I suspect Paul's support is greater than traditional polling would indicate. After all, a sizable group of Paul voters are probably "non-traditional" but more importantly, he attracts the folks who probably are a bit, how do I say, paranoid?

He'll probably outperform the polls for the reasons you outlined (+ youngsters without landlines, indies who never vote voting, etc), but its doubtful that he'll strongly outperform. He probably has to have no more than 6% difference with the frontrunner in most polls to win.

Then we'll see if he can turn it into a primary win in New Hampshire. That would seal the deal on his nomination in all practical senses, whereas a strong performance would make the rest of the season a big slog between Ron's grassroots dominating caucuses and Romney's cash doing better in primaries.

[Lief 🗽]

Eh, while a Paul victory would be pretty great, his supporters appear to be young people, people who haven't caucused before, and independents/Democrats... in other words, probably the three groups least likely to actually turn out.

[RI]

You have to be pretty naive if you think that the Republican Party will just roll over for Paul even if he somehow won both Iowa and New Hampshire. They'll do everything they can to take him down.

[Niemeyerite]

Congratulations, Paulites It may be absolutely reconfortating to see a poll like this from the most prestigious polling company. I may not agree with your views, but Paul deserves to win Iowa after his debate perfomances and his visits to Iowa/NH.

[Mr. Morden]

It may be absolutely reconfortating to see a poll like this from the most prestigious prolific polling company.

Fixed.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Eh, while a Paul victory would be pretty great, his supporters appear to be young people, people who haven't caucused before, and independents/Democrats... in other words, probably the three groups least likely to actually turn out.

That's why Obama lost the nomination to Clinton and we're complaining about President McCain right now.

Those three demographics also happen to be the three hardest for a Republican candidate to harness in a primary, the three most useful if aforementioned candidate went against a Democrat in the general election, and the three most unpredictable and thus hardest to poll.

That isn't even mentioning that Paul's supporters are looking far more solid than Newt's (voters who aren't changing their minds, for example) and that he's on the rise while Newt's on the decline.

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There's a big enough anti-establishment feeling that Paul could probably overcome that and win anyway. And you have to admit, Paul vs Obama would be among the most worthwhile debates to watch.

[RBH]

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Would it surprise me if some respondents just replied with their 2008 General Election vote there?

BTW, Paul wins Iowa = Romney wins the nomination.