NBC News-Marist: Obama leads Gingrich/Romney in FL & SC

[Tender Branson]

Florida:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

46% Approve
45% Disapprove

...

51% Barack Obama
39% Newt Gingrich

48% Barack Obama
41% Mitt Romney

49% Barack Obama
36% Ron Paul

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/NBC_News-Marist_Poll_Florida_December_2011.pdf

South Carolina:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

44% Approve
48% Disapprove

...

46% Barack Obama
42% Newt Gingrich

45% Barack Obama
42% Mitt Romney

47% Barack Obama
37% Ron Paul

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/NBC_News-Marist_Poll_South_Carolina_December%202011.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Sry Mondale, had a problem with the merging ...

Please everyone re-post what you already posted.

[mondale84]

No worries...

...incredible SC numbers...I'm thinking outlier...

[exopolitician]

Has to be. No way Obama is leading in SC.

[California8429]

Their Florida numbers were also plus 7 and 12 and we've seen it way closer and even Romney edging Obama so I think all these latest NBC/Marist polls are outliers. And I've never counted Marist polls as accurate personally anyway.

[Devils30]

Oversampled Dems but still proves that nominating Gingrich is a stupid idea

[Tender Branson]

The new Winthrop South Carolina poll shows similar results:

45% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804&ekmensel=fee512e3_566_0_9804_3

[© tweed]

Oversampled Dems but still proves that nominating Gingrich is a stupid idea

he and Romney perform about the same in the poll...

[Tender Branson]

The last PPP poll was:

Barack Obama................................................44%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 45%

[Oakvale]

Yeah, probably not accurate. I trust PPP on this. Although I think Newt would ultimately lose South Carolina, it's still Lean Republican at least.

[pbrower2a]

The last PPP poll was:

Barack Obama................................................44%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 45%

Gingrich is ahead in Georgia, but by less than the usual margin for a Favorite Son candidate. South Carolina has demographics similar to Georgia, except that Georgia has one giant metro area and is otherwise very rural and South Carolina has a bunch of medium-sized cities. President Obama could win South Carolina if he puts some effort into it, but I think that he would rather put the effort into states with bigger rewards in contested Senate seats or more electoral votes (Arizona, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia -- Indiana joins that list should the Republicans tea-bag Senator Lugar).     

[Niemeyerite]

Probably an outlier... but only off by 2 or 3 points, so SC could be a toss-up next year with those republican candidates

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Even those Florida numbers look to be generous

[tmthforu94]

Sure...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

What is hurting the Republicans in South Carolina is Gov. Haley.  In that Winthrop Poll, Her favorability numbers were 35-43, considerably worse than Obama's 45-48.  While there is no Senate seat in play, she just might put the new 7th District in play.

[Oakvale]

What is hurting the Republicans in South Carolina is Gov. Haley.  In that Winthrop Poll, Her favorability numbers were 35-43, considerably worse than Obama's 45-48.  While there is no Senate seat in play, she just might put the new 7th District in play.

I've seen people commenting before that Haley is very unpopular. Is it just the buyer's remorse almost every state seems to have with their 2010 Tea Party Governors or is she proving incompetent?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

What is hurting the Republicans in South Carolina is Gov. Haley.  In that Winthrop Poll, Her favorability numbers were 35-43, considerably worse than Obama's 45-48.  While there is no Senate seat in play, she just might put the new 7th District in play.

I've seen people commenting before that Haley is very unpopular. Is it just the buyer's remorse almost every state seems to have with their 2010 Tea Party Governors or is she proving incompetent?

I'd imagine it has more to do with her incompetency than her policy proposals: she wasted hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars in a trip to Paris, she's been accused of violating ethics rules as a legislator and business interests hate her (and have hated her in the past as well) for not opposing the dredging of Savannah's harbor.

I'm sure that general budget cut angst has played a part in her unpopularity but she's been very incompetent so far.

[You kip if you want to...]

What is hurting the Republicans in South Carolina is Gov. Haley.  In that Winthrop Poll, Her favorability numbers were 35-43, considerably worse than Obama's 45-48.  While there is no Senate seat in play, she just might put the new 7th District in play.

I've seen people commenting before that Haley is very unpopular. Is it just the buyer's remorse almost every state seems to have with their 2010 Tea Party Governors or is she proving incompetent?

I'd imagine it has more to do with her incompetency than her policy proposals: she wasted hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars in a trip to Paris, she's been accused of violating ethics rules as a legislator and business interests hate her (and have hated her in the past as well) for not opposing the dredging of Savannah's harbor.

I'm sure that general budget cut angst has played a part in her unpopularity but she's been very incompetent so far.

She strikes me as an underperfomer. Just look at her election result.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

What is hurting the Republicans in South Carolina is Gov. Haley.  In that Winthrop Poll, Her favorability numbers were 35-43, considerably worse than Obama's 45-48.  While there is no Senate seat in play, she just might put the new 7th District in play.

So could Sheheen be competitive in 2014?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

What is hurting the Republicans in South Carolina is Gov. Haley.  In that Winthrop Poll, Her favorability numbers were 35-43, considerably worse than Obama's 45-48.  While there is no Senate seat in play, she just might put the new 7th District in play.

So could Sheheen be competitive in 2014?

If he gets to face Haley.  At this point Haley's unpopularity (which is mostly personal, not because of any Tea Partyish issues she's backed) is such that if it continues I expect she will face credible challengers in the GOP primary and could lose the primary.  Of course a lot could change by then, so it's way too early to be counting gubernatorial chickens.

[memphis]

There have been several polls lately showing an Obama surge, not in approval but in trials against the GOP candidates. The GOP primary has become a circus. Doesn't mean this surge will last into the general but I think it will be enlarged further once the Happy New Year, War is Over media cycle begins. Plus, you'll have the pissy GOPers who say they won't vote for the other GOP candidate even though at the end of the day, they will. I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama up 52-42 against all challengers next month.

[nhmagic]

Gosh, is there no state that Obama can't win.  I mean, he must have this thing wrapped up already.  Look we've got an economy with upwards of 9% unemployment and voters even hold him somewhat responsible and hes winning solid republican states.

Right...all of these polls just confirm exactly what I have thought for a long time.  They oversample dems in both swing states and red states as to give the democrat a lead until it gets closer to the election.  You'll see, watch for when PPP's polling to magically "shift" too once it gets to the time period where their reputation as an accurate polling company is at stake.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Nah... Obama couldn't even muster 45% in SC in 2008.  Newt might not be a good choice if the GOP would like to win in 2012 but there's no way barring a landslide that Obama carries SC. 

I will not claim to know very much about SC politics but it seems to be Georgia without Atlanta. 

[pbrower2a]

Nah... Obama couldn't even muster 45% in SC in 2008.  Newt might not be a good choice if the GOP would like to win in 2012 but there's no way barring a landslide that Obama carries SC. 

I will not claim to know very much about SC politics but it seems to be Georgia without Atlanta. 

...and with Strom Thurmond instead of Jimmy Carter as its best-known political figure in recent decades, if that means something.

South Carolina has its urban population more scattered along I-26 and I-85 in several cities far smaller than Atlanta.

[Tender Branson]

South Carolina also had the same Obama approval rating like the US did in the 2010 Exit Poll:

44-55

Considering that it became a fast growing state recently, it might become a pickup opportunity for Obama if he invests some time and money there.