are the following contracts over- or under-valued on Intrade?

[© tweed]

2012.REP.NOM.ROMNEY 44.5
2012.REP.NOM.GINGRICH 36.1
2012.REP.NOM.PAUL(RON) 7.6
2012.REP.NOM.HUNTSMAN 5.9

2012.DEM.NOM.OBAMA 93.9

IOWA.GINGRICH 62.5

NEW.HAMP.ROMNEY 67.5

FLORIDA.GINGRICH 53.2*

PRESIDENT.DEM.2012 50.5
PRESIDENT.REP.2012 46.3

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*I took the liberty of splitting the bid/ask as the actual contract price was lower than both the bid and ask (and Romney's contract was higher on last transaction than his bid ans ask)

[Bacon King]

2012.REP.NOM.ROMNEY 44.5 (sell)
2012.REP.NOM.GINGRICH 36.1 (buy)
2012.REP.NOM.PAUL(RON) 7.6 (sell)
2012.REP.NOM.HUNTSMAN 5.9 (sell)

2012.DEM.NOM.OBAMA 93.9 (buy)

IOWA.GINGRICH 62.5 (sell)

NEW.HAMP.ROMNEY 67.5 (sell)

FLORIDA.GINGRICH 53.2 (buy)

PRESIDENT.DEM.2012 50.5 (buy)
PRESIDENT.REP.2012 46.3 (sell)

[Averroës Nix]

2012.REP.NOM.ROMNEY 44.5 - HOLD: Recent travails aside, he's still more likely than not to be than nominee. Nevertheless, his trading value will continue to drop without a swift recovery.

2012.REP.NOM.GINGRICH 36.1 - BUY: I still don't see him as a plausible nominee, and I expect him to decline at some point over the next month, but it's not obvious that he's imploding yet, and his value will continue to increase if Romney keeps sabotaging himself.

2012.REP.NOM.PAUL(RON) 7.6 - SELL: Unless he wins Iowa, expect him to drop (especially if he doesn't maintain a competitive level of support in polls). If you think that he's likely to win Iowa, it might be worthwhile to buy Paul now and quickly sell it as its value balloons after an Iowa victory.

2012.REP.NOM.HUNTSMAN 5.9 - SELL: I'd peg his odds much lower than this. I guess that you can't totally count him out in New Hampshire, but he's been so perennially overrated that I wouldn't be willing to stake anything on him suddenly recovering.

2012.DEM.NOM.OBAMA 93.9 - BUY: I guess, what's the trading volume like in this market? Probably not going to change very much, barring health issues or something similarly dramatic and unlikely.

IOWA.GINGRICH 62.5: SELL - Nowhere is the GOP contest more volatile than Iowa. Each one of the six candidates who debated last night has a shot of winning, and because Gingrich is currently so favored on Intrade, if anyone shows momentum, it'll harm Gingrich's value.

PRESIDENT.DEM.2012 50.5 - SELL
PRESIDENT.REP.2012 46.3 - BUY: Well, buy once the nomination process reaches a point where it's less volatile. Until then, the odds for the GOP will seem deceptively low.

You didn't include Perry or Bachmann in your original post. (Both are trading at about 2.0, if I recall correctly.) Perry is definitely undervalued (despite it all, he has the clearest path to the nomination of anyone who isn't Romney). He might never trade above the low single digits again, but if he manages to finish 3rd or better in Iowa (and, perhaps more doubtfully, avoids major gaffes) I'd expect his trading value to skyrocket.

If Bachmann starts rising in Iowa, (or Santorum, for that matter), BUY. But as of now, don't. It's too early to tell whether either candidate will recover; personally, I'm skeptical.

EDIT: Didn't comment on the odds for any post-Iowa contest because, obviously, the results in Iowa will dramatically affect each candidates value. Because Iowa itself is really unpredictable at the moment, I'd consider it stupid to invest in any highly valued candidate in later states (at this time, Romney or Gingrich). HOWEVER, it might be worthwhile to buy a diversified set of presently low-valued candidates (Perry, Huntsman, Santorum, and possibly Paul), betting that at least one will emerge from Iowa and New Hampshire looking more likely to win some other contest.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hasn't been mentioned here, but Hillary Clinton is currently given a better chance of becoming the Democratic nominee than Jon Huntsman becoming the Republican nominee. That's what I'd called overvalued.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Hasn't been mentioned here, but Hillary Clinton is currently given a better chance of becoming the Democratic nominee than Jon Huntsman becoming the Republican nominee. That's what I'd called overvalued.

I think it's spot-on.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hasn't been mentioned here, but Hillary Clinton is currently given a better chance of becoming the Democratic nominee than Jon Huntsman becoming the Republican nominee. That's what I'd called overvalued.

I think it's spot-on.

I think chances that Huntsman manages to win New Hampshire are a bit higher somehow than Barack Obama dying in the coming eleven months.

[Jacobtm]

Well y'know, The President always has people plotting on him, you never know really.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

2012.REP.NOM.ROMNEY 44.5 (sell)
2012.REP.NOM.GINGRICH 36.1 (buy)
2012.REP.NOM.PAUL(RON) 7.6 (hold)
2012.REP.NOM.HUNTSMAN 5.9 (hold)
2012.DEM.NOM.OBAMA 93.9 (buy)
IOWA.GINGRICH 62.5 (sell)
NEW.HAMP.ROMNEY 67.5 (sell)
FLORIDA.GINGRICH 53.2* (hold)
PRESIDENT.DEM.2012 50.5 (buy)
PRESIDENT.REP.2012 46.3 (sell)

[TomC]

Romney below 50 is a buy. The rest are too much of a gamble for me.