Ranking Competitive State Legislative Chambers in 2012

[Skill and Chance]

Let's see where things stand.  Obviously, redistricting plays an immense role in these rankings:

AK

State Senate: Likely R takeover from coalition

AR

State Senate: Lean R takeover
State House: Lean R takeover

CO
State Senate: Lean D hold (favorable court redistricting)
State House: Lean D takeover (see above)

DE

State Senate: Likely D hold (gerrymandered)
State House: Likely D hold (see above)

FL

Could one of the chambers be competitive if FDF leads to a court map?

IA

State Senate: Lean D hold (redistricting appears to have helped them)
State House: Tilt D takeover (see above and Obama is flying pretty high here)

KY

State House: Lean D hold (redistricting, but Obama will hurt a lot)

ME

State House: Lean D takeover
State Senate: Lean D takeover

MN

State Senate: Lean D takeover
State House: Tilt D takeover

NH

State Senate: Likely R hold (everything is always competitive in NH, although Romney would help tremendously here)
State House: Likely R hold 

NM

State House: Lean D hold

NV

State Senate: Likely D hold (very favorable redistricting, but margin is 1 seat)

State House: no longer competitive (very favorable redistricting)

NY

State Senate: Likely D takeover with court map, Tilt R hold with legislative deal

OH

State House: Likely R hold (might not actually be competitive)

OR

State Senate: Likely D hold

State House: Tilt D takeover from coalition (in a normal year, Dems narrowly take both chambers, but if the GOP is soaring nationally, they could win both outright)

PA

State House: Likely R (might not actually be competitive)

TX

State House: Likely R hold (could fall under the court map with very D favorable conditions nationally)

WV

State House: Likely D hold (redistricting should avert downballot fallout from the presidential race)

Current Outlook:  GOP favored up both chambers in AR and the AK senate.  Democrats favored to pick up both chambers in MN and ME, the CO house, IA house, OR house and the NY senate if redistricting goes to court. 

In a wave, the GOP adds the KY house, NM house, takes OR house outright, keeps something in MN and ME and takes everything in IA.  In a Dem wave, they keep everything in AR, and probably have a surprise takeover somewhere in the Rust Belt and somewhere in the South.     


Have I missed any potentially competitive chambers?  Nationally it looks pretty grim for the Democrats due to redistricting...

Edit: Forgot WI: State senate is likely R after the gerrymander, and the State house is probably safe R.

[nclib]

You didn't do NC, but the gerrymandering here was atrocious.

[Skill and Chance]

You didn't do NC, but the gerrymandering here was atrocious.

Both houses of the NC legislature are probably off the table until at least 2016.  The Dems could conceivably take one in 2018 or 2020 with continuing demographic changes and a national environment like 2006 or 2008.  Democratic opportunities in the South are quite scare.  The VA state senate could flip in 2013 by way of the LG tiebreaker.   

[Mr.Phips]

If Gingrich is the nominee, I could easily see enough seats shifting in New Hampshire for Democrats to retake control.  Also, dont count out a shift in the Michigan House, where there have been some wild swings in the past.  The Wisconsin Senate map actually isnt that bad for Democrats.  If they win control in the early 2012 recalls, they will probably keep it.  It mostly shored up GOP incumbents like Alberta Darling.  Dems will probably gain seats in the Wisconsin House, but not control. 

[Skill and Chance]

If Gingrich is the nominee, I could easily see enough seats shifting in New Hampshire for Democrats to retake control.  Also, dont count out a shift in the Michigan House, where there have been some wild swings in the past.  The Wisconsin Senate map actually isnt that bad for Democrats.  If they win control in the early 2012 recalls, they will probably keep it.  It mostly shored up GOP incumbents like Alberta Darling.  Dems will probably gain seats in the Wisconsin House, but not control. 

You know that the Republicans have a 3/4ths majority in NH, right?  It is NH, but that still takes one heck of a wave to overcome.

[Mr.Phips]

If Gingrich is the nominee, I could easily see enough seats shifting in New Hampshire for Democrats to retake control.  Also, dont count out a shift in the Michigan House, where there have been some wild swings in the past.  The Wisconsin Senate map actually isnt that bad for Democrats.  If they win control in the early 2012 recalls, they will probably keep it.  It mostly shored up GOP incumbents like Alberta Darling.  Dems will probably gain seats in the Wisconsin House, but not control. 

You know that the Republicans have a 3/4ths majority in NH, right?  It is NH, but that still takes one heck of a wave to overcome.

Democrats had a two thirds majority and that didnt save them in 2010. 

[Miles]

If Gingrich is the nominee, I could easily see enough seats shifting in New Hampshire for Democrats to retake control.  Also, dont count out a shift in the Michigan House, where there have been some wild swings in the past.  The Wisconsin Senate map actually isnt that bad for Democrats.  If they win control in the early 2012 recalls, they will probably keep it.  It mostly shored up GOP incumbents like Alberta Darling.  Dems will probably gain seats in the Wisconsin House, but not control.  

You know that the Republicans have a 3/4ths majority in NH, right?  It is NH, but that still takes one heck of a wave to overcome.

Democrats had a two thirds majority and that didnt save them in 2010.  

New Hamsphire just seems to be particularly prone to national waves.

[Frodo]

Do you see the GOP gaining at least gaining ground in the West Virginia legislature?  Considering how far behind they are in both legislatures, I would think they have a better chance there than in, say, Maryland.  

[Miles]

I'd say WV would be a Safe D hold; while Democrats are hurt by Obama, they will also have stronger Manchin coattails.

[Frodo]

When is the Washington state legislature (both houses) up for re-election?  2014?  

[Skill and Chance]

When is the Washington state legislature (both houses) up for re-election?  2014?  

At least one house is up next year, but I don't think control will be competitive there unless it's a better year than 2010 for the GOP.

[Dan the Roman]

If Gingrich is the nominee, I could easily see enough seats shifting in New Hampshire for Democrats to retake control.  Also, dont count out a shift in the Michigan House, where there have been some wild swings in the past.  The Wisconsin Senate map actually isnt that bad for Democrats.  If they win control in the early 2012 recalls, they will probably keep it.  It mostly shored up GOP incumbents like Alberta Darling.  Dems will probably gain seats in the Wisconsin House, but not control. 

You know that the Republicans have a 3/4ths majority in NH, right?  It is NH, but that still takes one heck of a wave to overcome.

Republicans will suffer massive losses in the State House. The current GOP legislative leadership is actually more unpopular than the Democrats were and massively over extended. Whether they lose control is another matter.

I think the most likely outcome is a loss of around 70 or so seats, for about a 221-179 margin, but with divided control a la 2005-2007.

The senate should be fine.

In Maine the GOP will lose the House, but with Romney they should hold the Senate.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

New Hampshire is incredibly swing-y, and I'm not sure why -- the state ditched straight-ticket voting. You'd almost expect that smaller seats would be less prone to swings, not more so.

[Dan the Roman]

New Hampshire is incredibly swing-y, and I'm not sure why -- the state ditched straight-ticket voting. You'd almost expect that smaller seats would be less prone to swings, not more so.

Because both the Democratic sweep in 2006 and the GOP one in 2010(which basically defeated anyone with a D after their name) swept in a huge jokes number of legislators who would be jokes even if they did ideologically match their seats.

The GOP had godawful candidate recruitment in 2010, with the consequence that a lot of their incumbents are far more vulnerable than they would be if there were open seats.

[BigSkyBob]

Missed the WA House and Senate. Likely D.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

New Hampshire is incredibly swing-y, and I'm not sure why -- the state ditched straight-ticket voting. You'd almost expect that smaller seats would be less prone to swings, not more so.

Most of the House districts are huge 4 to 8-member districts that tend to go 4-8 to zero in one direction. Supposedly they're ditching the huge districts in redistricting and going back to having a ton of smaller districts.

[Skill and Chance]

Missed the WA House and Senate. Likely D.

I don't honestly think those are going to be competitive.  Obama basically hasn't lost ground in WA.

[Skill and Chance]

If Gingrich is the nominee, I could easily see enough seats shifting in New Hampshire for Democrats to retake control.  Also, dont count out a shift in the Michigan House, where there have been some wild swings in the past.  The Wisconsin Senate map actually isnt that bad for Democrats.  If they win control in the early 2012 recalls, they will probably keep it.  It mostly shored up GOP incumbents like Alberta Darling.  Dems will probably gain seats in the Wisconsin House, but not control. 

You know that the Republicans have a 3/4ths majority in NH, right?  It is NH, but that still takes one heck of a wave to overcome.

Republicans will suffer massive losses in the State House. The current GOP legislative leadership is actually more unpopular than the Democrats were and massively over extended. Whether they lose control is another matter.

I think the most likely outcome is a loss of around 70 or so seats, for about a 221-179 margin, but with divided control a la 2005-2007.

The senate should be fine.

In Maine the GOP will lose the House, but with Romney they should hold the Senate.

What do you think the future of gay marriage is in NH?  Repeal would get a majority in the legislature right now, but there are probably enough libertarian types to sustain Lynch's veto in the 2012 session.  Do you think the state GOP will put it to a vote for campaigning purposes even if they can't get 2/3rds?  It seems pretty obvious that the State House won't be veto-proof in 2013, so it may be their one chance to push it through.  How do you feel about Democratic odds of either taking the State House or holding the governor's mansion?  Is full GOP control to be expected in 2013?       

[BigSkyBob]

Missed the WA House and Senate. Likely D.

I don't honestly think those are going to be competitive.  Obama basically hasn't lost ground in WA.

And, I honestly do think those could be competitive. As I said, likely Democrat.

[Skill and Chance]

Missed the WA House and Senate. Likely D.

I don't honestly think those are going to be competitive.  Obama basically hasn't lost ground in WA.

And, I honestly do think those could be competitive. As I said, likely Democrat.

Maybe if the GOP gets everything they want out of the redistricting commission.

[Nichlemn]

New Hampshire is incredibly swing-y, and I'm not sure why -- the state ditched straight-ticket voting. You'd almost expect that smaller seats would be less prone to swings, not more so.

One reason is a high number of independents, the other is the relatively homogenous distribution of the vote. Like, it's possible that there wasn't actually very much of a swing from 2008 to 2010 in the state legislative popular vote, but as so many seats are marginal that small swing flipped them all.

[Dan the Roman]

If Gingrich is the nominee, I could easily see enough seats shifting in New Hampshire for Democrats to retake control.  Also, dont count out a shift in the Michigan House, where there have been some wild swings in the past.  The Wisconsin Senate map actually isnt that bad for Democrats.  If they win control in the early 2012 recalls, they will probably keep it.  It mostly shored up GOP incumbents like Alberta Darling.  Dems will probably gain seats in the Wisconsin House, but not control. 

You know that the Republicans have a 3/4ths majority in NH, right?  It is NH, but that still takes one heck of a wave to overcome.

Republicans will suffer massive losses in the State House. The current GOP legislative leadership is actually more unpopular than the Democrats were and massively over extended. Whether they lose control is another matter.

I think the most likely outcome is a loss of around 70 or so seats, for about a 221-179 margin, but with divided control a la 2005-2007.

The senate should be fine.

In Maine the GOP will lose the House, but with Romney they should hold the Senate.

What do you think the future of gay marriage is in NH?  Repeal would get a majority in the legislature right now, but there are probably enough libertarian types to sustain Lynch's veto in the 2012 session.  Do you think the state GOP will put it to a vote for campaigning purposes even if they can't get 2/3rds?  It seems pretty obvious that the State House won't be veto-proof in 2013, so it may be their one chance to push it through.  How do you feel about Democratic odds of either taking the State House or holding the governor's mansion?  Is full GOP control to be expected in 2013?       

The ideal situation for everyone(well for the GOP leadership,  and Gay Marriage Supporters at least) would be to put it on the ballot, since polls show repeal losing by 30 points. Of course that would require a two-thirds vote which would require hard-core anti-gay marriage opponents/or gay marriage supporters to vote for such a compromise, and neither is willing to do so.

Repeal will probably fail to get 2/3rds this year. The big question is next year. If Romney is the nominee(looking less likely) and wins the state(also looking less likely) I can see a scenario where the GOP wins the GOV race 51-49 and ends ups 225-175 and 14-10 or so majorities int he legislature. Then it gets interesting if they can repeal it on a raw majority vote.

Gingrich will likely lose the state by at least 6 points though, and I don't see any of the B and C grade candidates on either side overcoming such a tailwind for Governor.

[Skill and Chance]

Bumping because something is up in the MN Senate right now.