2012 Taiwan Election

[Beet]

The candidates are

Ma Ying-jeou (Kuomintang/KMT-inc)
Tsai Ing-wen (Democrtic Progressive Party/DPP)
James Soong (People First Party/PFP)

The election is January 14.

The Kuomintang (Nationalist Party) is the same party that fled from China after the Chinese Civil War and ruled for 50 years until the 2000 election.

The DPP is a center-left pro-Taiwan independence party.

Ma Ying-jeou swept to power in 2008 after a series of corruption scandals downed the previous DPP President and has opened up direct transportation and tourism links with mainland China. The economy has boomed under Mr. Ma, but there is growing dissatisfaction over a widening wealth gap and high property prices. This has boosted Ms. Tsai's campaign into the lead.

Tsai Ing-wen is setting a moderate tone for herself in China-Taiwan relations to appeal to the center. She is not married and refused to answer questions about her sexuality.

James Soong is a bitter former KMT member who was very popular but split from the party after they refused to nominate him, and started the PFP over 10 years ago. He was the spoiler for the KMT in 2000 and may be so again. He polls around 10%.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Who will win, Blue or Green?

[jaichind]

2008 ROC Prez elections
KMT (Ma)      58.5%
DPP (Hsieh)   41.5%

2012 ROC Prez polls (average)
KMT (Ma)      40%
DPP (Tsai)     38%
PFP (Soong)   10%

Most PFP supporters are KMT rebels.  One wild card is this time ROC Prez election is being held at the same time as LiFaYuan (legislative) elections, a ROC first.  There are a lot of KMT rebels running which is bad for the KMT for the legislative elections but could help Ma as latent KMT voters might turn out to vote for these rebels and then mostly vote Ma or Soong (most likely Ma due to tactical voting.)

Prediction
KMT (Ma)   51%
DPP (Tsai)  45%
PFP (Soong) 4%

Most of Soong's backers will choose to vote tactically and go for Ma giving him the victory.

2008 ROC LiFaYuan elections
KMT+allies   60 FPTP + 6 Taiwan aborigine seats + 20 party list = 86 seats
DPP+allies   13 FPTP +  0 Taiwan aborigine seats + 14 party list = 27 seats

There are a lot of KMT rebels and PFP running, none of them will win but will take down a lot of KMT candidates.  KMT party list is accepted by all as the superior and will do well in the party list vote.

2012 ROC LiFaYuan Prediction
KMT+allies   41 FPTP + 5 Taiwan aborigine seats + 18 party list = 64 seats
DPP+allies    32 FPTP + 0 Taiwan aborigine seats + 14 party list = 46 seats
PFP                0 FTTP + 1 Taiwan aborgine seats +   2 party list  = 3 seats

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Good for pan-blue.

[jaichind]

Latest China Times poll.
KMT (Ma)      43%
DPP (Tsai)     35%
PFP (Soong)    8%
Undecided     13%

Ma had a 10% lead back in mid Oct but Tsai closed the to around 1%-4% due to some gaffs.  Tsai had her own recently and the lead is back up to 8%.  When I look at this poll I really feel Tsai's support is 38% and not 35%.  A few days back undecided were around 10% and as Tsai's support fell off no all that support went to Ma, instead undecided went up.  So I really count the 3% that went to undecided as Tsai's support as they will be back as soon as the gaffs Tsai had recently wears off.

Gallup had a poll as well.  It was
               Original           Reweighted        Take hidden DPP voters       Final tally
                                                                  into account
Ma              34.70%          34.38%                   43.00%                      46.13%
Hsai            25.45%          26.19%                   39.30%                      42.16%
Soong          7.51%            7.67%                   10.92%                       11.71%

I generally agree with Gallups methods.  I feel that there will be a Soong strategic collapse and that he will get at best 4%.  If you do take 5% from Soong to Ma and 3% of Soong to Tsai from the final tally it pretty much matches my prediction.

[jaichind]

All eyes are on the 12/3 debate between the candidates.  It could lead to a realigment in the polls depending on how they do. 

[jaichind]

First debate was today.  Mostly a three way draw.  I guess Ma did better but I might be biased.  Soong did pretty well as Ma and Tsai spent most of their time attacking each other.  I expect the polls to drop for both Ma and Tsai (Ma to keep his 6-8% lead) and Soong would go up.  Then as time goes on Soong to lose support again.

Former DPP MP Sheng Fu-Shiung and now political commentator (he is more pro KMT these days despite his DPP background) predicted something like

Ma    52%
Tsai  44%
Soong 4%

Very similar to my prediction of

KMT (Ma)   51%
DPP (Tsai)  45%
PFP (Soong) 4%

Note back in 2008 Sheng predicted that Ma would beat Hsieh 59.5% to 40.5% (his exactly prediction was a Ma win by 2.3 million votes), while my prediction was for Ma 59% and Hsieh 41%. [Final 2008 result was Ma 48.5% Hsieh 41.5%]

[jaichind]

Some light and funny news on elections.  Soong's running mate Lin Ruei-shiung who is a fairly well respected although somewhat odd doctor in the medical field claimed that the ROC version of the FBI was using electromagnetic waves to disrupt his thought patterns.  The claimed that when the entire truth comes out about this, this scandal will be "bigger than Watergate." PFP handlers have done their best to keep Lin from bring this topic again. 

Lin is beginning to remind me of James Stockdale from Perot 1992.  The ROC Veep debate is next weekend and I am sure Soong and PFP is worried about what else Lin might say before and even worse, during the debate.  Lin's acivities really paint the Soong campaign as not serious and quixotic.  Like I mentioned before, Soong's 10% support will drop to 4% or even less on election day.

[jaichind]

Latest polls from vaious media outlets (mostly pro-KMT) show a Ma leading anywhere from 5-8% with Soong now at around 7-8% support.  DPP polls show a dead heat. 

Historically pro-KMT media polls do underestimate DPP support.  On the other hand, DPP polls historically have been precieved as doctored up to fit their political goals.  Back in 2008 pro-KMT media polls show Ma with a lead of 20% or so over DPP's Hsieh.  DPP polls showed Ma leading by 7% which was mocked by most political experts.  Ma ended up winning by around 18%.

An secret internal DPP memo which just go leaked projected a Ma victory by 4.5%. Their logic was the following, DPP polls show a dead tie. But DPP figured that since 10% of the voting population on Taiwan Province are actually living in Mainland China, polls do not account for that.  They figured that when they come back to Taiwan Province to vote Jan 15, most will vote KMT by a ratio of 4 to 1.  This should add 2% of the KMT lead even if some of the KMT vote here also went to Soong. They also figured that since the Legislative elections are being held at the same time as the Presidential election that will push up turnout which will help KMT extend its lead by 1% or so.  They also figure that tactical voting by Soong voters will swing another 2% to Ma.
While I disagree that Ma and Tsai are tied right now (I feel Ma does have a small but significant lead). But I mentioned in my prediction of Ma 51% Tsai 45% Soong 4% that is was assuming similar factors that the DPP is citing.

[jaichind]

Latest TVBS (pro-KMT TV station) poll.  Ma (KMT) 44 Tsai (DPP) 35 Soong (PFP) 7.
Based on this poll TVBS projects Ma (KMT) 50 Tsai (DPP) 45 Soong (PFP) 5 which is pretty similar to my prediction of Ma 51 Tsai 45 Soong 4.  TVBS predictions tries to filter out its pro-KMT bias by assiging undecided more toward Tsai based on their demographic background.  I think if Soong is polling 7% then giving him 5% in final vote share is optimistic.  I stick by my prediction that Soong will get no more than 4% and most likely less.
 

[minionofmidas]

Some light and funny news on elections.  Soong's running mate Lin Ruei-shiung who is a fairly well respected although somewhat odd doctor in the medical field claimed that the ROC version of the FBI was using electromagnetic waves to disrupt his thought patterns.  The claimed that when the entire truth comes out about this, this scandal will be "bigger than Watergate." PFP handlers have done their best to keep Lin from bring this topic again. 

Endorsed!

[jaichind]

Election is 1/14/2012. As of 1/3/2012 publishing of all polls are banned.  Last published polls are as follows
TVBS (pro-KMT) Ma 45 Tsai 37 Soong 6 -> Projects Ma 49 Tsai 46 Soong 5
United Daily (pro-KMT) Ma 44 Tsai 36 Soong 7
China Times (lean KMT) Ma 39.5 Tsai 36.5 Soong 5.8 -> Projects Ma 48.3 Tsai 44.6 Soong 7.1
Now News (lean KMT) Ma 37.2 Tsai 33.1 Soong 7.2
Taiwan Think Tank (pro-DPP) Ma 38.8 Tsai 37.8 Soong 11.6
Apple Daily (neutral) Ma 42.2 Tsai 35.7 Soong 6.2
Gallup (neutral) Ma 40.9 Tsai 24.3 Soong 6.3 -> Projects Ma 48.4 Tsai 44.8 Soong 6.8

DPP projects Ma 47 Tsai 48 Soong 5
KMT internal pollings claims Ma is ahead by 10 and said that high turnout would put Ma over the top.
Most underground casinos are offering bets for Ma to win by 1.5% but many punters are only taking bets on Tsai and not Ma which seems to imply that they feel that Ma will win by greater than 1.5%

Projections are sort of close to my predition.  Ma 51 Tsai 45 Soong 4.  I guess my projection calls for greater tatical voting by Soong voters to vote for Ma than these polling outfits.  We all seems to think that Tsai will get around 45.  We will see 1/14 who is right. 

[Tender Branson]

I'll try a prediction:

47% Ma Ying-jeou (KMT)
42% Tsai Ing-wen (DPP)
11% James Soong Chu-yu (PFP)

BTW, do Taiwan Presidential Elections have run-offs ?

And, does anyone have seen polls for the Parliamentary Elections ?

[jaichind]

My psudo-final prediction - no change from before

KMT (Ma)   51%
DPP (Tsai)  45%
PFP (Soong) 4%

2012 ROC LiFaYuan Prediction
KMT+allies   45 FPTP + 6 Taiwan aborigine seats + 19 party list = 70 seats
DPP+allies    28 FPTP + 0 Taiwan aborigine seats + 15 party list = 43 seats
PFP                0 FTTP + 0 Taiwan aborgine seats +   0 party list  = 0 seats

I am going to go out on a limb and predict that PFP will flop completely.  They will not pass 5% in the party list vote to get seats.  They will lose all FPTP seats and their candidate will not win any of the Taiwan aborigine seats.  Of course there will be tactical voting in the Prez vote and Soong will fall to 4%.  The biggest collapse for Soong support will be in urban areas, his vote will hold up in rural areas.

[jaichind]

ROC Prez elections does not run-offs. 
For LiFaYuan elections, there has only been polling at the party list level.  Last known poll was by United Daily on 1/2/2012.  It was

KMT   40%
DPP   29%
PFP     5%

Gallup had a poll late Dec 2011 for LiFaYuan

For Generic ballot FPTP
KMT   32.3%
DPP   20.4%
PFP     2.5%   (KMT splinter)
NP       0.4%  (KMT splinter)
NPSU   0.9%  (KMT ally)

For Party list
KMT   36.8%
DPP   21.5%
PFP     5.6%
NP       0.6%
TSU     2.2%  (DPP splinter)
Greens 0.5%

I'll try a prediction:

47% Ma Ying-jeou (KMT)
42% Tsai Ing-wen (DPP)
11% James Soong Chu-yu (PFP)

BTW, do Taiwan Presidential Elections have run-offs ?

And, does anyone have seen polls for the Parliamentary Elections ?

[jaichind]

Voting in progress.  DPP predicts that Tsai will win by 1% (they been predicting that for months now and is unlikely to be true).  They also predict DPP will get between 40-45 seats in LiFaYuan.  That makes me suspect my prediction of 43 seats for DPP might overstate what they will get.  If DPP predicts 40-45 seats I suspect they will get 35-40 seats. 

[2952-0-0]

As of now Ma is leading with 52.58% with Tsai at 44.57%. Song is trailing at 2.85%, far below anyone's expectations. In the legislature, KMT has 51, DPP has 24, PFP has 1, and others 2. Can we call this one now?

[jaichind]

Ma 52.5 Tsai 44.7 Soong 2.8 with about 25% of vote counted Like I said, Soong would struggle to get 5% and my prediction of 4% for Soong as too generous.  Tsai was always going to get about 45, rest is Ma and Soong.

[2952-0-0]

Did you go back to Taiwan to vote of are you staying on the sidelines?

[jaichind]

Nope.  Still in states.  I do not have ROC citizenship ergo I cannot vote there.  Lots of my relatives went back to vote.  5 of them for Ma and 3 of them for Tsai

Did you go back to Taiwan to vote of are you staying on the sidelines?

[jaichind]

We are about 55% done.  Ma 52.35 Tsai 44.82 Soong 2.83. We can call this baby.

[jaichind]

If it ends up being Ma 52 Tsai 45 Soong 3 it will ends up pretty close to my Ma 51 Tsai 45 Soong 4 prediction.  The simple fact is that DPP cannot get more than 45 period. They can put up a women moderate candidate like Tsai in the mist of poor economic enviornment but the anti-independent vote is just too strong.  I guess even I underestimated the tactical voting by KMT voters, Soong will end up with less than 3% versus my 4% prediction.

[2952-0-0]

Funny, I'm live streaming CCTV at this moment and they're pretending the election isn't occurring at all. Given the better-than-expected result for Ma, this reflects an ultra-cautious stance by the Politburo bigwigs.

[jaichind]

KMT announces victory in Prez and LiFaYuan elections.
My comments are the same as in 2008 KMT election victory - Long Live Republic of China, Long Live Chinese Reunification, For a Greater Chinese Union.

Let me note again that the official name of KMT is when translated to English is China National Citizens Party.  Once again a majority of the people on Taiwan Province voted for a political party with the word "China" in it.  The pro-independence forces are smashed again as they should in any fair fight without KMT forces being split or some other DPP last minute "shootings".

[jaichind]

Lets see how did I do so far

Prediction
KMT (Ma)   51%
DPP (Tsai)  45%
PFP (Soong) 4%

So far
Ma     51.86
Tsai    45.33
Soong  2.80

Prediction
KMT+allies   45 FPTP + 6 Taiwan aborigine seats + 19 party list = 70 seats
DPP+allies    28 FPTP + 0 Taiwan aborigine seats + 15 party list = 43 seats
PFP                0 FTTP + 0 Taiwan aborgine seats +   0 party list  = 0 seats

So far it is
FPTP
KMT and allies 47
DPP and allies  26

Aborigine
KMT and allies 5
DPP and allies 0
PFP                1

No party list results so far.