Prediction: Michele Bachmann will be the GOP nominee.

[Beet]

Yes, I know I know. My prediction record is poor; I said Palin would be the nominee, and she hasn't even run. Palin, despite all appearances, is more shrewd and maneuverable than any of the other GOP'ers. She's the only one in either party who both is a strong media draw, and seems to actually have tapped into the vein of popular disgust over corruption. But Bachmann has always been the most Palin-like candidate; at one point she was called a Palin clone. And she is running, so that removes that.

Here's my theory: The Republicans are looking for a nutter, a purist. That's pretty well established. Romney just won't do. Numerous possibilities, Trump, Perry, Cain, Bachmann, have all been flavors of the week. But whereas Trump, Perry, and Cain were all felled by fatal flaws (not running; immigration & Department-gate; sexual harassment & not even trying) the only reason Bachmann fell from favor is because Perry had entered the race and built up a huge bubble. At the time she was leading, she did come under scrutiny, and the worst thing that could be found was that she has migraines, which is a non-scandal. Yes, she makes nutty remarks on a regular basis, but does the GOP primary electorate really care about that?

Anyone who thinks Newt Gingrich will be the nominee is smoking. He has about five hundred skeletons in his closet, and a hundred of them fell out last week. Not to mention, his stance on immigration at tonight's debate will be fatal. Romney has a hard cap at 30%, and Paul has a hard cap at about 15%. Bachmann will emerge as the anti-Romney and win the nomination. If not for her it would be Santorum.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Have you boys seen an aircraft carrier?
                   
You're okay, Beet. Just stay on
my wing. I'll take you all the way in.
                   
Easy, Beet.
Just a walk in the park, buddy.

You're a little low. You're a little low.
Come on, buddy, pull up.

Pull up, Beet.
                   
That's it. Almost there.
                   
A little below glide path. Call the ball.

You're too low. Increase power!

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

current odds of winning GOP nomination:

Newt         60%
late entry  20%
Romney     10%
Huntsman   5%
Perry           2%
Cain            1.1%
Santorum    1.0%
Paul            0.8%
Bachmann   0.1%

[CLARENCE 2015!]

I think she has attacked her fellow candidates too much to be a unifier and I also believe her attacks have killed her chances in the general

[Averroës Nix]

Are you on Gardasil?

[Torie]

Beet, you seem to make this assumption that voters just have terrible judgment. I think more highly of them. The demonstrably unfit over time are cast off and out almost always.

[Stranger in a strange land]

One of the ways that progressive elements of the media attack the right is by caricaturing them as uneducated simpletons. They do this by exaggerating the popularity and influence of people like Palin, Trump, and Bachmann, and in doing so, they unintentionally enable them.

Bachmann is the poor man's Sarah Palin. She has crashed and burned, just like Palin did, and I don't see a way back for her.

Palin, despite all appearances, is more shrewd and maneuverable than any of the other GOP'ers. She's the only one in either party who both is a strong media draw, and seems to actually have tapped into the vein of popular disgust over corruption. But Bachmann has always been the most Palin-like candidate; at one point she was called a Palin clone. And she is running, so that removes that.

Palin has massive unfavorables and is probably the most divisive figure in American politics today. There is no chance she will ever be president or hold public office again, and I don't think she wants to.

[opebo]

Beet, you seem to make this assumption that voters just have terrible judgment. I think more highly of them. The demonstrably unfit over time are cast off and out almost always.

What the heck are you talking about, Torie?  I'll refute your claim by mentioning two names - Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.

[minionofmidas]

I think we can all agree that anybody seriously running for President is demonstrably unfit by that token.

And that Michele Bachmann won't be in the race past those early four or five.

[California8429]

She's spent all her time attacking every candidate in the light. She wouldn't be able to unite her own party, her own faction of the party, let alone enough independents to even be viable in the general election. She's way too inexperienced, she's nuts, she's not qualified, she doesn't have the knowledge, she doesn't have any skills, she doesn't have the money, she doesn't have the campaign team, I cringe and so does the nation when they hear her talk (just how she says words with her dialect alone).

[tmthforu94]

I still think Bachmann has a small, slithering chance. If and when Gingrich fades, Republicans will once again be looking for a darling, and if she campaigns just right, she could be that darling. A win in Iowa would boost her similar to what happened to Huckabee in Iowa. Her problem lies in South Carolina, though, a state I'm not sure she could win, even head-to-head against Romney.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

That would be the most beautiful map since 1936.

[redcommander]

That would be the most beautiful map since 1936.

Don't count on it with the economy. Obama's best bet with her would be a slightly bigger victory than Clinton 96.

[FloridaRepublican]

Never going to happen.

[BigSkyBob]

current odds of winning GOP nomination:

Newt         60%
late entry  20%
Romney     10%
Huntsman   5%
Perry           2%
Cain            1.1%
Santorum    1.0%
Paul            0.8%
Bachmann   0.1%

Perry's odds are much higher since he isn't Gingrich, or Romney. Gingrich's odds are much lower since he is Gingrich. Romney might have more than a 10% chance of winning, unfortunately.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

That would be the most beautiful map since 1936.

Don't count on it with the economy. Obama's best bet with her would be a slightly bigger victory than Clinton 96.

It's different when Obama is consistently leading her by wide margins (name recognition is no longer a big issue), and when the candidate in question thinks that Obamacare secretly destroys Medicare and outsources interrogation to the ACLU.

[angus]

Okay, I can't take it anymore!
 

Please change your signature. 

[All Along The Watchtower]

Beet, you seem to make this assumption that voters just have terrible judgment. I think more highly of them. The demonstrably unfit over time are cast off and out almost always.

What about Barry Goldwater in 1964, when the GOP convention became a Bircher rally?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Okay, I can't take it anymore!
 

Please change your signature. 

There.

[Stranger in a strange land]

current odds of winning GOP nomination:

Newt         60%
late entry  20%
Romney     10%
Huntsman   5%
Perry           2%
Cain            1.1%
Santorum    1.0%
Paul            0.8%
Bachmann   0.1%

Perry's odds are much higher since he isn't Gingrich, or Romney. Gingrich's odds are much lower since he is Gingrich. Romney might have more than a 10% chance of winning, unfortunately.

Perry took himself out of contention with his series of escalating debate gaffes. His campaign has been an embarrassing epic fail, on par with Giuliani's 2008 run.

[angus]

Okay, I can't take it anymore!
 

Please change your signature. 

There.

Well, that's eventually going to drive me crazy as well, but thank you.

[Bull Moose Base]

It looks very likely a Gingrich win in Iowa would make him the strong frontrunner in South Carolina.  I'm not exactly sure the same holds true if Bachmann, Santorum, Perry or Cain win Iowa.  Maybe but it's murky.  If Bachmann (or anyone) wins both Iowa and South Carolina, we're probably seeing a 2-person race with Romney, and I'd call Romney the favorite in any one-on-one, but a weak one against Gingrich, Bachmann or Santorum.

[Eraserhead]

Sorry, Beet. She missed her chance. She is now an afterthought.

[Yelnoc]

Sorry, Beet. She missed her chance. She is now an afterthought.

This is what everyone said about Cain after Bachmann eclipsed him over the summer, ya know.

[redcommander]

I will say she is the only candidate running who has been the most consist Conservative, and could pick up a bunch of support as Iowa becomes nearer. Once Newt's skeletons come out again, she will basically be the only one left along with Santorum that would be acceptable enough for the Tea Party. Plus Palin might give her a last minute endorsement. We don't know how that might change the race's dynamics.