What's up with all the polling of uncompetitive states? Obama has a lock on the West Coast and the GOP has a lock on the Great Plains. We get it already.
It's a good check. PPP polls North Carolina incredibly often, and such states as Ohio and Florida get polled frequently, too.
Signs of an election going the wrong way for the President are that states that went for him by a margin of 15% or more are getting closer or that those that the President barely lost are going by larger margins. So if he is up by 10% in California or down by 12% in Georgia, then such is not such a good thing.
Signs of things going better for the President are that states that went for him by a modest margin are going into the prohibitive range (let us say Colorado or Virginia showing margins around 12%) or that a state like Texas or Tennessee that the President lost by a large margin in 2008 seems to be going into range.
If much is the same, then such shows something about the style of the electoral results -- that maybe nothing has changed. It's also possible that if margins are shrinking both ways, then the electorate is far less divided between the states.
Some states will show the effects of local politics. The Favorite Son effect can add 10% or so to some nominee's vote share in many scenarios (Dubya did about 10% better than Dole between 1996 and in 2000 in Texas and about 10% better than McCain between 2004 and 2008; in 1972 South Dakota was one of the best states for George McGovern even if he lost badly) for someone who has a positive image in a home state while running nationally. That qualification suggests that Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum will not do especially well in Minnesota or Pennsylvania, respectively, If Mitt Romney can convince voters in New Hampshire that he is really a man of the Granite State, then he just might win it. On the other hand, John McCain won Arizona by less than the usual margin for a Favorite Son, so Arizona should be a potential pickup for President Obama even if nothing else so moves.
Most significantly we can see differences in how states see the different GOP nominees and we can see charges -- and collapses.
