How are these swing states trending? (user search)
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  How are these swing states trending? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How are these swing states trending?  (Read 9321 times)
A18
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Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35
« on: December 26, 2004, 04:18:15 PM »
The talk about Florida, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia trending Democrat is wishful thinking on their part. Especially Florida, which is clearly trending Republican.

New Hampshire's right-wing vs. left-wing vote actually stayed about the same this election, with a smaller Nader factor being the reason Kerry broke 50%. I still think it's trending Democrat, albeit slowly.
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35
« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2004, 11:31:40 PM »
The state is more Republican. Fairfax is more Democrat.

So because the nation is trending Republican faster than Virginia is, Virginia is now trending Democrat? What sense does that make?
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35
« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2004, 11:33:49 PM »
Quote from: Vice President Keystone Phil on December 26, 2004, 11:32:10 PM
Quote from: 21 Year Old BRTD on December 26, 2004, 11:30:35 PM
Look at Fairfax county (even in 1996) and say that.

Besides, it sure as hell isn't trending Republican.

I think you said the state as a whole. Now answer my question: How is a one point swing indicating a trend for the state?

That 1 point swing was due to the Nader factor wearing off, BTW. Bush got a larger percentage. :-)
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35
« Reply #3 on: December 26, 2004, 11:53:50 PM »
Quote from: 21 Year Old BRTD on December 26, 2004, 11:52:04 PM
Quote from: Vice President Keystone Phil on December 26, 2004, 11:32:10 PM
Quote from: 21 Year Old BRTD on December 26, 2004, 11:30:35 PM
Look at Fairfax county (even in 1996) and say that.

Besides, it sure as hell isn't trending Republican.

I think you said the state as a whole. Now answer my question: How is a one point swing indicating a trend for the state?

I explained the national average deal, but even that's not needed. Even if you use the raw numbers, that's still a 1 point trend, and the question was which way were the states trending. Even if it's only a 1 point trend, it's obviously not trending Republican.

Nader. Take Bush's number in 2000 and compare it with Bush's 2004 number.
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35
« Reply #4 on: December 26, 2004, 11:59:30 PM »
The national average is irrelevant. If MORE PEOPLE in the state vote REPUBLICAN, the state is NOT moving Democrat. It is moving LESS REPUBLICAN than the national average.
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35
« Reply #5 on: December 27, 2004, 12:09:37 AM »
The economy started sucking and they swung heavily Democrat, just like the other 48 states.
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35
« Reply #6 on: December 27, 2004, 02:10:07 AM »
Quote from: 21 Year Old BRTD on December 27, 2004, 12:23:49 AM
and what happened in Vermont? That was the 2nd time in history it had ever voted Democrat, and it's been easily won by the Democrat in every following election. Did it just magically turn from a solidly Republican state to a solidly Democratic one overnight?

No, it gradually trended Democrat, which was aided by the economy and other national factors.
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