How are these swing states trending?

[2952-0-0]

Ohio-D
Pennsylvania-R
Minnesota-R
Wisconsin-R (unless the Dems become hardcore populist)
Michigan-see above
Nevada-D
Arizona-R
New Mexico-R
Colorado-D
Florida-D
Iowa-R
New Hampshire-D
Missouri-R
Virginia-D
West Virginia-R

What do you think?

[Alcon]

Ohio-Depends on job numbers.
Pennsylvania-Slight populist
Minnesota-Slight populist
Wisconsin-Slight populist
Michigan-Very slight populist
Arizona-Tiny, tiny D
New Mexico-Steady
Colorado-D
Florida-Tiny, tiny R
Iowa-Populist
New Hampshire-Slightly D
Missouri-Slightly R
Virginia-Tiny D
West Virginia-Strongly populist

[Cashcow]

I disagree with Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and NH. Otherwise it seems about right.

[Rob]

Ohio-D
Pennsylvania-D
Minnesota- R, although the trend seems to have peaked
Wisconsin-R
Michigan-D
Arizona-R
New Mexico-R
Colorado-Moderate D
Florida- Fairly strong R
Iowa-R
New Hampshire-Strong D
Missouri-Strong R
Virginia- VERY small D
West Virginia-Moderate to strong R

[Filuwaúrdjan]

West Virginia-Strongly populist

True. Ask Governer-Elect Manchin.

[ian]

Ohio-D
Pennsylvania-R
Minnesota- barely D
Wisconsin- barely R
Michigan- slight R
Nevada-D
Arizona-R
New Mexico- slight R
Colorado-D
Florida- R
Iowa- slight R
New Hampshire- D
Missouri- R
Virginia- D
West Virginia- R

This is my expected result, but this really isn't a matter of opinion; it's a matter of mathematics.
For instance, Colorado, when it is mathematically calculated, moves to the left presidentially from 2000 to 2004 by 2.95%.  (By shifting US election results of 2000 and 2004 to be as if the election turned out to be 50-50% both times, adding in the Nader factor to both candidates as if he weren't there, applying that to the statewide results [of CO, in this instance], finding the difference between Bush from 2000 to 2004, finding the difference between Kerry and Gore, subtracting the lower number from the higher number in both instances, then averaging the two numbers you just found, you can find the presidential voting trend in each state.)
Sorry if that math was too confuzing; don't feel dumb; I am taking a college course which requires me to do this kind of math.  If I get to it, I will give you the results of each swing state using my technique to find the presidential voting trend.

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania is not trending Republican.

[ilikeverin]

Minnesota is not trending populist.

We are trending moderate.

[A18]

The talk about Florida, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia trending Democrat is wishful thinking on their part. Especially Florida, which is clearly trending Republican.

New Hampshire's right-wing vs. left-wing vote actually stayed about the same this election, with a smaller Nader factor being the reason Kerry broke 50%. I still think it's trending Democrat, albeit slowly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most states don't trend

[Akno21]

IT DEPENDS ON THE CANDIDATES

With only 7 elections in the last 25 years, there isn't a large enough sample to find a trend.

[ian]

From 2000 to 2004:
Colorado trends Democratic by 2.95%
Florida trends Republican by 1.07%
Iowa trends Republican by .88%
Michigan trends Democratic by .54%
Minnesota trends Democratic by 1.61%
Nevada trends Democratic by 1.40%
New Hampshire trends Democratic by .81%
New Mexico trends Democratic by .12%
Ohio trends Democratic by 1.87%
Pennsylvania trends Republican by .53%
Virginia trends Republican by .34%
West Virginia trends Republican by 1.91%
Wisconsin trends Democratic by 1.33%

According to my mathematical studies of the 2000 and 2004 election trends.

[Alcon]

Minnesota is not trending populist.

We are trending moderate.

When I say that, I mean that the rural farming areas which partially drove the progressive moment are becoming more socially moderate faster than they are economically - this is the case in many former progressive areas. The trend overall is towards moderation, with social issues going there faster in my eyes. However, I consider you the official expert on all things Minnesota here, so I'll cede to your knowledge on this topic.

I have to agree with Akno personally. The fact is, much of this is moot and all depends on the candidate. The fact is that while it is clear there are some slow trends, trends rarely come into play. Most states barely move an inch in 20 years, and even if they do, it accounts for just two percentage points or so at the most. Without a candidate to appeal there it's hard to tell.

This is just a casual observation that I get based on the demographics of an area. It's hard to do an individual state. However, you can assume that rural Iowa and rural Minnesota are trending at least somewhat similarly.

Philip, to claim that Nevada isn't trending Democrat is sort of ridiculous. As Las Vegas grows, the state gets more liberal, period. I've heard a lot about "suburban" sprawl, but unless the Democratic margin in Clark County starts shrinking, it will only help us.

Colorado is hard to tell, as is Virginia, although it is clear the northern suburbs are trending Democratic. Florida may not be trending Republican - it may be a blip.

The fact is, unless elections were held yearly, it's really not possible to tell trends unless there is major population growth in a Democratic area, as there was in Nevada.

Also, most trends are over by the time they are apparent.

[12th Doctor]

Pennsylvania is not trending Republican.

Just look at the map.

The "T" is becoming even more solidly Republican.

The Democrats are losing ground in their traditional strongholds in the south-west and West.  The Pittsburgh area itself is definatly trending Republican.  While Republicans are losing ground in some areas around Philly, it isn't enough to off-set the trend in the rest of the state.  Slowly, but surely, we are trending red (or blue in Atlas terms).

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania is not trending Republican.

Just look at the map.

The "T" is becoming even more solidly Republican.

The Democrats are losing ground in their traditional strongholds in the south-west and West.  The Pittsburgh area itself is definatly trending Republican.  While Republicans are losing ground in some areas around Philly, it isn't enough to off-set the trend in the rest of the state.  Slowly, but surely, we are trending red (or blue in Atlas terms).

It's absolutley pointless arguing with him, Super. He's one of those people that think it's nearly impossible to beat Rendell. Don't waste your time arguing this point with him.

[TeePee4Prez]

+

Pennsylvania is not trending Republican.

Just look at the map.

The "T" is becoming even more solidly Republican.

The Democrats are losing ground in their traditional strongholds in the south-west and West.  The Pittsburgh area itself is definatly trending Republican.  While Republicans are losing ground in some areas around Philly, it isn't enough to off-set the trend in the rest of the state.  Slowly, but surely, we are trending red (or blue in Atlas terms).

I don't think you understand the power of the Philadelphia area in terms of voting.  You also have to consider New York/North Jersey residents moving into Northeast Pennsylvania.  They are largely Democratic.  PA is a push.  I don't see a significant trend.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Parts of PA are trending Dem, parts are trending Republican, the net result is a wash.

Minnesota was trending Republican but it's mostly likely peaked and will probably shift back from now with all the minorities coming in.

as for the rest:

Ohio-D
Wisconsin-push
Michigan-R, but will probably peak soon
Nevada-D
Arizona-slowly D
New Mexico-D
Colorado-D
Florida-was D, but it's probably peaked
Iowa-push
New Hampshire-D
Missouri-R
Virginia-D
West Virginia-R

[Keystone Phil]

+

Pennsylvania is not trending Republican.

Just look at the map.

The "T" is becoming even more solidly Republican.

The Democrats are losing ground in their traditional strongholds in the south-west and West.  The Pittsburgh area itself is definatly trending Republican.  While Republicans are losing ground in some areas around Philly, it isn't enough to off-set the trend in the rest of the state.  Slowly, but surely, we are trending red (or blue in Atlas terms).

I don't think you understand the power of the Philadelphia area in terms of voting.  You also have to consider New York/North Jersey residents moving into Northeast Pennsylvania.  They are largely Democratic.  PA is a push.  I don't see a significant trend.

Philly was at it's peak this past election. Bush only lost PA by about 2 points.

So let's look at it this way...

2000 - Philly wasn't at it's peak. Gore wins by about 5 points.
2004 - Philly is at it's peak. Kerry wins by about 2 points.

You, my friend, are underestimating the T and other areas of the state.

And where are the facts that show people from NY and NJ moving to the NE? I think you have it backwards. People from the NE are moving to NY and NJ.

[Keystone Phil]

Virginia-D

How? In 2000, it was Bush by 9 and in this past eelction it was Bush by 8. That's no significant trend.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Look at Fairfax county (even in 1996) and say that.

Not to mention in 2000 Gore won the PV by about a half point and Bush won the PV by about 3 points this time. Compare to the national average that is a significant trend.

[A18]

The state is more Republican. Fairfax is more Democrat.

So because the nation is trending Republican faster than Virginia is, Virginia is now trending Democrat? What sense does that make?

[Keystone Phil]

Look at Fairfax county (even in 1996) and say that.

Besides, it sure as hell isn't trending Republican.

I think you said the state as a whole. Now answer my question: How is a one point swing indicating a trend for the state?

[Alcon]

Virginia-D

How? In 2000, it was Bush by 9 and in this past eelction it was Bush by 8. That's no significant trend.

Considering that the election was a virtual tie in 2000, it is a minor trend. However, two elections in a row obviously does not make a trend, so you are 100% correct.

I think the north is trending Democrat moderately, but not enough to flip the entire state when it maters. The point is that if the Dems win Virginia, they won't need it.

[A18]

Look at Fairfax county (even in 1996) and say that.

Besides, it sure as hell isn't trending Republican.

I think you said the state as a whole. Now answer my question: How is a one point swing indicating a trend for the state?

That 1 point swing was due to the Nader factor wearing off, BTW. Bush got a larger percentage. :-)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Look at Fairfax county (even in 1996) and say that.

Besides, it sure as hell isn't trending Republican.

I think you said the state as a whole. Now answer my question: How is a one point swing indicating a trend for the state?

I explained the national average deal, but even that's not needed. Even if you use the raw numbers, that's still a 1 point trend, and the question was which way were the states trending. Even if it's only a 1 point trend, it's obviously not trending Republican.